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Delta Passenger Traffic Up 16% in June vs. Last June...

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Heavy Set

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 28, 2002
Posts
2,277
Caught this little blurb about Delta. I guess the "sky's falling" according to Delta management... Doesn't seem too bad to me. Load factor is up too. Sure, everyone knows costs need to come down - starting with the mainline pilots... However, the picture doesn't seem AS BLEAK as DAL management would have you believe (especially if new pilot wages are negotiated). Read below:


NEW YORK, July 6 (Reuters) - Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL - News) on Tuesday said its passenger traffic in June rose 16.6 percent from a year earlier, slightly ahead of its capacity increase of 14.6 percent. Load factor, which measures the percentage of seats filled on planes, was 81.9 percent, up 1.4 percentage points from a year earlier, the No. 3 U.S. carrier said.
 
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Heavy Set said:
Caught this little blurb about Delta. I guess the "sky's falling" according to Delta management... Doesn't seem too bad to me. Load factor is up too.
You're one smart cookie there Heavy.

Flying lots of seats with ticket prices too low to cover costs is a real problem that can't be argued away.

Load factor being up isn't good news unless RASM exceeds CASM.
 
DaveGriffin said:
You're one smart cookie there Heavy.

Flying lots of seats with ticket prices too low to cover costs is a real problem that can't be argued away.

Load factor being up isn't good news unless RASM exceeds CASM.
Dave from the last quarterly report it would seem that Delta is making progress on revenue and that costs decreased. It's not a bad trend when your costs per unit go down, your revenue per unit goes up and your load factor is increasing. Too bad management made the strategic blunder of selling our fuel hedge just before the price of fuel started moving to record highs.

From the DAL 1st quarter report:

"First quarter operating revenues increased 4.3 percent and passenger unit revenues increased 0.6 percent, compared to the March 2003 quarter. The load factor for the March 2004 quarter was 70.6 percent, a 1.7 point increase as compared to the March 2003 quarter. System capacity was up 3.5 percent and mainline capacity was up 1.2 percent from the prior year. Detailed traffic, capacity, load factor, yield and unit revenue information is provided in Table 1 below.



Operating expenses for the March 2004 quarter remained flat with the prior year, although capacity increased. Despite record high fuel costs, Delta’s unit costs decreased 3.6 percent from the March 2003 quarter. Fuel price neutralized unit costs2,3, excluding unusual items, decreased 3.8 percent."


That's not to say that Delta doesn't need to negotiate some cost cutting from pilots in the form of an investment and that Delta doesn't need to reduce costs from the rest of the constituencies on the property, but Delta is making progress despite all the mismanagement.
 
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I haven't figured Dave out. Is he a furlough, or does his wife work here as a stew? If it is the latter, then I can understand why he is mad--if the pilots here don't take a large cut and we fall into Chap 11, then his wife gets to join along in the cuts---which should happen anyway. If he is a furlough, he could be mad that he has been out a while, but he should see that the MEC has been fighting for his recall. A problem we have here at Delta BESIDES high paid pilots is older employees with long years of service. Jetblue and other new LCCs have new employees with 1-3 year tenure and lower pay rates. Our stews, overall after the stew furloughs, are older and have higher pay scales compared to their same groups in the industry. I am not saying they should share the same amount of cuts as the pilots---heck no. But, to say that they should not give up very much pay so that they do not unionize---that is wrong. Sorry Dave. Everyone should give up something---but not the amount that we should.


Bye Bye--General Lee
 
Here's the full article. Seems that the prior posters left out that ASA/CMR had the biggest gains in traffic and capacity.


Delta says more cuts ahead
Dollar figure not specific

By KIRSTEN TAGAMI
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Published on: 07/06/04


Delta Air Lines must cut costs even more than anticipated, Chief Executive Gerald Grinstein says.

In a memo to employees Tuesday, Grinstein mentioned — but did not confirm — a published report saying Delta will ask for $1 billion a year in concessions when negotiations with pilots resume in the next few weeks. That would be a little more than 11 percent more in cost savings than past proposals sought.

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Though he didn't give a number, Grinstein said it is "painfully clear that last year's estimate of the cost savings we will need if Delta is to survive and compete is no longer valid."

Previously, Delta had asked its 7,200 pilots — the highest-paid in the industry — for a 30 percent pay cut and work rule changes that would cut total pilot costs by almost $900 million annually. The pilots have offered about one-third of that, although they recently agreed to resume talks and make a fresh proposal this summer.

A Delta spokesman would not confirm the $1 billion figure, reported Tuesday in USA Today and attributed to an unnamed source.

"We have not publicly shared any potential numbers pertaining to how much a reduction in pilot costs will be needed going forward," said the spokesman, John Kennedy.

A separate memo from a flight operations executive sought to squelch any idea that management planted the USA Today report. "[Grinstein] has been steadfast in his efforts to keep all negotiations where they belong — at the negotiating table; thus, we will not introduce any new proposals through the media," Dean Bloom, director of flight operations, said in a message to pilot managers.

Grinstein's brief memo reiterated one six days ago, in which he noted that "financial pressure on Delta grows more urgent with each passing day." Grinstein said the company already has been able to wring out almost $1.8 billion in costs.

"But costs continue to outpace revenues, with no improvement in sight," Grinstein said. "It's obvious we need to do more and we need to do it quickly."

A spokeswoman for the pilots union said pilots are working on a "comprehensive proposal" to present within the next few weeks. Any pilot cuts must be part of an overall restructuring, said Karen Miller of the Air Line Pilots Association.

Negotiations originally were to resume in late August but have been moved up, said Robert Mann of R.W. Mann & Co., an aviation consulting firm.

"It shows a realization on the part of the pilots group that this is an issue that needs to be addressed sooner rather than later," Mann said.

One factor putting extra pressure on Delta pilots, he added, is that United Airlines is expected to ask for even more cuts from its pilots after it was denied a federal loan guarantee. United won $1.1 billion in concessions from its pilots last year.

Delta has said all along that it would ask for deeper cuts from the pilots if nothing can be worked out before talks on a new contract start, said Philip Baggaley, an analyst at Standard & Poor's. If Delta goes into bankruptcy, the cuts would be greater still, he said.

"They're saying, 'Let's talk now because it's only going to get worse, not better,' " he said.

Also on Tuesday, Delta said June traffic rose 16.6 percent from the same month a year ago, offsetting a 14.6 percent capacity increase as the airline added more flights. Delta filled an unusually high 81.9 percent of its seats in the month, up 1.4 points.

The strongest traffic and capacity gains were at subsidiaries Comair and Atlantic Southeast Airlines, as well as on international routes.

Delta and several other big airlines are filling planes this summer, but the growing clout of discount airlines forces all carriers to hold down fares. For bigger airlines, the lower average fares don't cover costs.

— Staff writer Robert Luke contributed to this article.
 
I wouldn't doubt that--because the RJs have now been put on ex-mainline routes. That makes sense. Just like Airtran and Jetblue having huge gains---because they have more planes today than they did the same time last year--and thus more passengers. We have a bunch of new RJs--and we have all the passengers back--and we are still losing our collective a$$es. The lower fares and RJ combination doesn't really work. And, please don't blame it all on the mainline pilot costs---we have been a fixed cost from the beginning--we have a contract. The selling of the fuel hedges, the cost of the Comair strike, and the $2.5 billion stock buy back that evaporated after 9-11 were the main culprits here.


Bye Bye--General Lee
 
General!!!!

you just don't get it!!! Pilot Pay is the root of all evil!!! And those RJs are
giving you the feed you need!! It is so simple!!

AA:rolleyes:
 
AAflyer,

You're joking right? Feed on the wrong routes (i.e., low fare routes in which you can't spread your costs cheaply across 50 seats to maintain a healthy margin) is costly - plus, passengers will do what they can to avoid RJs if given a choice. Sure, RJs do provide some good feed, but with the many LCCs, it's difficult to justify 50 seats at $50 each...

Obviously, DAL's problems are not solely based on pilot costs - there are other major issues to address:

1. Management-induced massive debt load (including buying hundreds of RJs, and buying ASA and Comair outright - not necessary - note Coex)
2. High non-pilot labor costs vs. similar LCC costs (stews and 10,000 mechanics - Jet Blue pays young, cute and healthy stews zilch)
3. Building expensive terminals (Boston and JFK)
4. MD-11s sitting in the desert at $15K EACH per day - serious cash wasted
5. Fleet with too many aircraft types for way too long - no coherent fleet strategy and very expensive for training, maintenance, etc.
6. Lack of fuel hedging strategy - great timing...
7. Special and secretive management retirement funds created by Leo (convenient that everyone involved has been fired - now nobody to blame...)
8. Over-reliance on super-expensive McKinsey consulting firm for strategy development when DAL has its own expensive, Harvard-trained executives
9. Multi-billion dollar stock buyback that has evaporated - great use of cash Leo... He used to be a banker?????
10. Corporate culture in which labor groups are pitted against each other for survival - you won't find this at SWA...

Sure, everyone can blame the mainline pilots for ALL of DAL's problems. But don't forget that DAL is waging a PR battle right now so that everyone overlooks its many other faults...
 
I think AAflyer is joking. (Gawd---I hope so!)

Bye Bye--General Lee
 
Heavy Set said:
AAflyer,

1. Management-induced massive debt load (including buying hundreds of RJs, and buying ASA and Comair outright - not necessary - note Coex)
The RJ's make up a small part of DL's debt. Most of DL's debt since 9/11 is because DL has taken out loans in order to make payroll. Maybe DL should have refused to take out loans and just let the cash run out. Prior to 9/11, DL had one of the best balance sheets in the industry (only WN and JB were better). Unfortunately, that strong balance sheet came back to haunt DL after 9/11, because it led management to believe they didn't have to make major changes. It also led DALPA to believe everything was ok.

2. High non-pilot labor costs vs. similar LCC costs (stews and 10,000 mechanics - Jet Blue pays young, cute and healthy stews zilch)
True...but the pilots are by far the worst offenders in this category.

3. Building expensive terminals (Boston and JFK))
Until this year, DL hasn't spent a dime on JFK. However, the existing terminal is dump and flying DL out of JFK is like something out of the third world. When AA opens their new terminal, DL is going to be in big trouble. As for BOS, if you wanted the company to grow, you have to have gates. The existing facility at BOS is inadequate and DL cannot grow. I guess you don't want DL mainline to grow.

4. MD-11s sitting in the desert at $15K EACH per day - serious cash wasted)
It depends...the cost of training, maintenance and fuel could mean DL actually loses less with the planes on the ground then flying. A sad reality...

5. Fleet with too many aircraft types for way too long - no coherent fleet strategy and very expensive for training, maintenance, etc.
True, but a plan was in place. DL was supposed to simplify down to the 732, MD88/MD90, 757/767 and MD11....effectively 5 fleet types. Unfortunately, things didn't work out that way...the MD11 was a lemon and McD got bought by Boeing which upset DL's fleet strategy.

6. Lack of fuel hedging strategy - great timing...
Up until this year, DL had done a very good job at hedging. Unfortunately, DL's credit has been eroded due to high costs making it impossible for DL to effectively hedge.

7. Special and secretive management retirement funds created by Leo (convenient that everyone involved has been fired - now nobody to blame...)
Agreed, this was a big mistake.

8. Over-reliance on super-expensive McKinsey consulting firm for strategy development when DAL has its own expensive, Harvard-trained executives.
Partially true...but outside of a handful of management, most of DL's management is far from Harvard....maybe Harvard Community College. Most of DL's ranks are run by long-time DL people who have no clue how to compete in this industry.

9. Multi-billion dollar stock buyback that has evaporated - great use of cash Leo... He used to be a banker?????
As the General would say, DL has a responsibility to shareholders. Part of Leo's responsibility was to increase share value. Obviously, had Leo known 9/11 was coming, he probably would have done differently.

10. Corporate culture in which labor groups are pitted against each other for survival - you won't find this at SWA...
Most of the pitting doesn't come from management. I don't see DL FA's fighting with DL mechs. Or DL GA's fighting with the ramp. The only fighting I see is pilots vs everyone else. The DL pilots have a long, long history of treating all the other labor groups like crap. I see it in the air and I see it on this board. Management just takes advantage of this sour relationship.

No one blames the pilots for all of DL's woes. Many of DL's woes are way beyond the control of pilots or any employee for that matter. But in order to get the pilots to participate in any recovery, management has to continuely beat on them. DALPA will not help out unless they have a gun pressed to their head.
 
Freebrd said:
Here's the full article. Seems that the prior posters left out that ASA/CMR had the biggest gains in traffic and capacity.
Really?

Approximate increase in RPM in 000,000:

Domestic

Mainline: 740
ASA: 70
CMR: 120

Int'l

Mainline: 840
ASA: 65
CMR: 126
 
MedFlyer said:
Up until this year, DL had done a very good job at hedging. Unfortunately, DL's credit has been eroded due to high costs making it impossible for DL to effectively hedge.
It's not that DAL was unable to fuel hedge, it was that DAL sold their fuel hedge. DAL had a fuel hedge in place and sold it for $83M in the first quarter of 2004.
 
Yes, they sold it for $100 million actually, but made $83 million after a $17 million charge. They sold the hedges to pay for an upcoming pension payment (not for the pilots), and later found out that in reality they didn't have to pay for those pensions for another two years thanks to recent pension relief legislation. Bummer.


Bye bye--General Lee
 
2. High non-pilot labor costs vs. similar LCC costs (stews and 10,000 mechanics - Jet Blue pays young, cute and healthy stews zilch)

Well you were pretty close. I bet the number crunchers round up 7,042 (which includes ground maintenance technicians) to 10,000. With that logic, I guess there are about 11 or 12,000 DAL pilots flying around these days.


10. Corporate culture in which labor groups are pitted against each other for survival - you won't find this at SWA...

I'm sure SWA's AMTs don't feel the need as they make top mechanic pay in the pax airline industry and only deal with one aircraft type.

I'm not on DAL management's side, I just don't care for inaccurate information posted to enhance a story. Ok I'll quit my beeching.

Jet Blue, Jet Blue, Jet Blue.... Meanwhile Airtran quietly but surely expands westward. How could Delta have let them create a hub at ATL? Is DFW gonna be Valujet's next hub? Doesn't look good for the big 3. Alright, I give up on how to insert a quote!
 
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