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Delta Credit Rating Downgraded by S&P...

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On Your Six

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 8, 2004
Posts
4,507
Great job Delta management! By not working WITH the pilot union to find much-needed concessions, your credit rating has now been downgraded. It will now be more expensive for Delta to access credit - thus dragging down earnings even further. How about seeking concessions from other labor groups too? Not likely. Great job Grinchstein!!!!!!




S&P cuts Delta Air Lines ratings
Wednesday March 17, 12:17 pm ET


(The following statement was released by the ratings agency)
NEW YORK, March 17 - Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today it lowered its ratings on Delta Air Lines Inc. (NYSE:DAL - News), including lowering the corporate credit rating to 'B-' from 'B+', and removed all ratings from CreditWatch, where they had been placed on Nov. 24, 2003. The outlook is stable. Ratings on selected aircraft-backed debt were lowered to a greater extent, based on Standard & Poor's review of default risk and recovery prospects for individual obligations. Ratings on bond-insured, 'AAA' rated enhanced equipment trust certificates, which were not on CreditWatch, were affirmed.

"The downgrades are based on continuing delays in securing urgently needed cost concessions from the airline's pilots, and prospects for further heavy losses and weak cash generation in 2004 and possibly 2005," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Philip Baggaley. "Negotiations with the pilots' union have not yet produced a hoped-for interim agreement, and it appears increasingly likely that the union will instead await the start of scheduled negotiations in August 2004 (the contract becomes amendable in May 2005). Accordingly, Delta will likely continue to report the heaviest losses among U.S. airlines, consuming cash and undermining its already weakened balance sheet," the credit analyst continued. Management is insisting on a contract that matches those achieved by airlines in or at the edge of bankruptcy, while the pilots' union is offering much more modest reductions from compensation that is about 60% higher than those in the restructured contracts.

Delta reported a fourth-quarter 2003 net loss of $327 million ($207 million before various unusual items). Delta's operating cost per available seat mile, even setting aside unusual items and holding fuel prices constant, and despite various cost-cutting initiatives, was slightly higher than in the fourth quarter of 2002, highlighting the cost challenge facing the airline. In addition, Delta took a $1.1 billion charge to equity due to continued underfunding of pension plans, an amount considerably above expectations due to revised actuarial assumptions. The company has warned that it is likely to lose around $400 million in the first quarter of 2004, revised from a previous estimate of $300 million to $350 million due to high fuel prices and the continued weak pricing environment.

Ratings on Delta, the third-largest airline in the U.S., reflect financial damage from heavy losses over the past several years; a high operating cost structure; substantial debt, lease, and postretirement liabilities; and ongoing risks associated with the company's participation in the cyclical and price-competitive airline industry. Positive factors are the company's solid market position in the U.S. domestic and trans-Atlantic markets and the work rule flexibility and productivity made possible by a mostly nonunion work force (only the pilots, among major employee groups, are organized). Delta, like other large airlines, is seeking to reduce expenses in response to the adverse revenue outlook, targeting a 15% cut, compared with year-end 2002 levels and before changes in fuel prices, in cost per available seat mile.

Ratings anticipate continued heavy, though gradually declining losses, and some reduction in cash balances ($2.7 billion at Dec. 31, 2003). A cost-saving contract with Delta's pilots is also expected, though the process of achieving that is likely to take an extended period and Standard & Poor's believes that achieving cost parity with airlines that have restructured in or at the edge of bankruptcy will prove difficult. Reasonable liquidity and gradually improving airline industry traffic provide support to the rating.
 
Hey, you can see that Wall St. also wants PILOT PAY CUTS. The pressure is on--but all of those ratings will go back up when we get those cuts. It is just a matter of time......

Bye Bye--General Lee;) :rolleyes:
 
My understanding is that the Delta pilot group is inclined to discuss pay cuts - I've heard in the range of 15-20%. Is that right? That's better than zero pay cuts! Is it also true that the pilots are not contractually obligated to discuss the contract until 2005-2006? If that's the case, then why wouldn't management want to work on concessions now given Delta's current crap situation? Why aren't other employee groups targeted for cuts? And what happened to the fuel hedging - who fuct that up in management? Did someone get fired over that huge mistake? Who's being held ACCOUNTABLE for management errors and missteps?????? I haven't seen Southwest making similar management mistakes (i.e., hedging)...

If I were a shareholder I would be PI$$ED off! Sounds like management is dropping the ball AGAIN... Good thing Leo got out before the storm!
 
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On your six,

Calm down buddy. You must own some of our stock....We have an open door policy when it comes to negotiating, but the offers have to be serious--otherwise we will apparently just wait for section 6 negotiations. We all want to help the company too---but NOT BE TAKEN in the process.... Take care.

Bye Bye--General Lee;)
 
Gotta agree with the General here...

The pilots are under no obligation to even talk, yet they have been willing to. Mgmt asked for 30% pay cut plus other benefit changes. The pilots came back with a counter offer (as it usually goes in NEGOTIATIONS) and then mgmt came back with their counter offer: 30% pay cuts plus other benefit changes. Doesn't sound much to me like mgmt wants to negotiate.

Shouldn't the share holders get all up in arms about the group that ISN'T willing to talk???
 
There is an April Shareholder's meeting in ATL I believe---should be interesting......I want to know what happened to the fuel hedging program that we sold off too soon? Is that guy dumping lavs now?

Bye Bye--General Lee:rolleyes:
 
If DL management settles for only a 15-20% cut, I can guarantee you that Wall Street will NOT be happy. A 15-20% cut will not make DL competitive. It will slow the bleeding, but the bleeding will continue. It might buy DL a little more time, but the end result will be the same.

Also, if DL management takes the 15-20% cut (remember DALPA has never actually offered this), what will DALPA do if DL's costs are still too high and the company keeps bleeding? Will DALPA be willing to come back to the table in a year and renegotiate more cuts? I doubt it. Grinstein knows he only has one chance to do this outside of BK. There's an old saying that applies here, "Either do it right the first time or don't bother doing it all."

In order for DL to survive, DL's costs MUST be lower than AA,UA,US,NW and CO. DL has the lowest yield network among these carriers. I'm not saying DL needs to have costs as low as the LCC's...that will never happen. But if DL can't gets its costs below the other majors, DL will NOT survive.

I'm betting that DL was probably FORCED to liquidate the hedges because they couldn't get competitive rates in the future. Fuel hedges are futures contracts and I doubt anyone wants to do business with a carrier heading toward bankruptcy. In order to secure a good hedge, it helps to be a creditworthy company....DL is not...WN is. IIRC, both US and UA were forced to liquidate their hedges as they headed toward BK.
 
Medflyer,

First, we had a hedging contract for 50-60% of our fuel supply this year. And, even USAir has 20% hedging--and they are a lot worse off than us. I guess all of the hedgers know who is going into Chap 11 and who isn't? Right... We still have a lot of cash--and that is what the hedgers care about-----you really like to try to scare people, don't you? The fact is that you don't want your RJ stream to stop flowing---can't you see that our CAP EX's for 2003 were all RJ's, and 2004 has over $500 million dedicated to RJs... Hmmmm. I like that you continually single out the pilot groups for pay cuts--even though EVERY employee has a stake in Delta doing better. The fact is that Grinstein doesn't want anymore unions on the property. As far as your statement that 15-20% isn't good enough--not according to Sam Butrick from USB Warburg--he said that Delta should take the pay cuts now rather than dig a bigger hole. He thinks we should get those benefits now and go forward. A 15-20% pay cut ALONG with other benie cuts would equal a huge savings---and the affects of having a smaller mainline pilot group (we are down about 3,000 from pre-9-11) will give continued savings compared to our pre-9-11 contract.

How about pay cuts from you guys? You guys are paid a lot more than your peers---and that is the key here. They like to compare our pay to UAL's and AA's. Well, what about yours compared to Mesa's? Well? But you guys are above it? And don't give me the BS about you guys bringing in the money to save us---FDJ2 already gave Michelle Burn's statement on what we actually pay for in regards to DCI.....


Bye Bye---General Lee


PS---Here is a great press release about how inportant those INTL flight will be for us---I thought you would like it Medflyer. I keep telling you how important INTL flying is for us---and that we carry more people domestically too than anyone. I guess our pilot pay is the only problem here and everything will be fixed after that......





Delta and Its Alliance Partners Prepare for Increased International Travel This Summer With More Flights to Europe, Asia, the Caribbean and Latin America
Wednesday March 17, 7:30 am ET
SkyTeam Alliance Gives Customers More Global Travel Choices


ATLANTA, March 17 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL - News) today said it is preparing for an increase in international travel this summer by expanding its own international service, as well as placing its code on international flights offered by its SkyTeam global alliance partners.
"International traffic figures so far this year show almost 6 percent growth in passenger traffic, which we believe will continue through the remainder of 2004," said Paul Matsen, Delta's senior vice president - International & Alliances.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) is predicting a 7 percent annual growth rate in global passenger traffic and a 4.4 percent annual growth rate in cargo shipments for 2004. IATA reported for January strong recovery in the Middle East region and sustained increases in the Far East, Asia, Africa, the Middle East, North America and Europe.

The SkyTeam alliance carriers offer the traveling public, as well as shipping customers, a worldwide system of more than 7,600 daily flights covering all major destinations. Members include Aeromexico, Air France, Alitalia, CSA Czech Airlines, Delta and Korean Air.

"Many of these new services and codeshare flights complement Delta's New York - JFK service, which connects more than 36 North American cities with Delta services to 18 international destinations (five codeshare, 13 Delta) from New York," Matsen added.

Delta's new service, slated to start in April, includes: a second daily flight from Atlanta to Cancun, Mexico; new service two times per week from Atlanta to St. Lucia; two new daily flights from New York-JFK to San Juan, Puerto Rico; and expanded frequencies from Atlanta to Liberia, Costa Rica.

In May, Delta will start new daily service from Cincinnati to Amsterdam and from Cincinnati to Rome, and a second daily Atlanta to Munich flight.

June service additions include daily flights from New York-JFK to Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic; a second daily New York-JFK to Athens, Greece, flight, which will operate three times weekly; and new service from Cincinnati to Cancun.

"Delta has been committed to providing our international customers with as many choices as possible for their business and leisure travels with our aircraft and those of our codeshare partners," Matsen added.;)
 
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If management isn't willing to meet the DAL pilots at the table, and they aren't willing to get anywhere with the ASA pilot group (pushing them towards a strike) then it really makes you wonder if they aren't trying to steer this ship to Chapter 11, which is what I think these downgrades are gently leading into.

No disrespeect toward the DAL pilot group, but I am seriously considering shorting this stock.
 
It makes me wonder too TY, but then those guys would lose control of the company to a bunch of bankers.....

Here's what I see maybe(?)-----the management will get options at very low strike prices, then we will have a contract settled (after negotiations) and the stock and ratings will shoot up----and they will cash in....I don't see a "tanking"---and look what happened to AA's stock---went to close to $1 and then went up over 1000%---if you would have invested at $1 you could have made a mint. Who knows? It makes you wonder though......

Bye Bye---General Lee:rolleyes:
 
Like you point out . . . things can change direction quickly, and a "short" is a very risky proposition. That's what has kept me from doing it so far.

Of course, I had the brilliant foresight to sell my AAI at $6.00 so it wouldn't be like it was the first stupid trade I made in the last 12 months . . . . .
 
Ty,

I prefer to gamble in other venues rather than Wall St---namely the Craps table at the Stardust in LAS---next to our crappy hotel there...I've done "alright" lately....

Bye Bye--General Lee:rolleyes:
 

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