Delta Can AVOID Chap 11 Filing This Year Says Grinstein...

[General Lee]

Nah, I'll leave that to YOUR imagination. Well, we do know one thing---we DL pilots supported you during your strike.....we must love you guys....?


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[chperplt]

GL

Isn't past your bedtime?? It's what... 10pm in SLC?

 

[General Lee]

You're either too blind or dumb to understand what I'm saying here. NO.. I don't expect Delta to sell ASA and Comair and keep the debt. I don't expect Delta to sell ASA or Comair because of the debt.

Understand what I'm trying to say here? I realize you being 40ish and all the brain starts to slow down.. The state of the economy and industry will make any sale cost (debt) prohibitive. NO ONE had the funds or credit to absorb 8 billion in additional debt.

I don't think GG is wrong about wanting to/needing to sell one or both of us. I don't think it can be done now and accomplish what needs to be accomplished. He's a couple years too late.

Slow down young dude. I keep saying that Skywest is looking at ASA only---probably not $8 billion in debt for one company. So, let's say $4 billion. Now, you need to understand that Skywest has the cash to buy someone. They also have the ability to take on debt. And, to top it off---they would be getting ASA for a GREAT DEAL-----normally it would have been over $1 billion for ASA alone, plus the debt. Get it? They would consider it a steal in good times. They have the ability to do it. As far as Comair goes, I think Air India might be interested. Have fun in Delhi and don't drink the water....


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

GL

Isn't past your bedtime?? It's what... 10pm in SLC?

No, it's midnight here in ATL. Thanks, I have 30 minutes until Conan.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[On Your Six]

Come on General.. You've gone through your entire list of why's and how's and now you're pulling this crap out of the bag.

What makes you think Skywest is in a position to assume 8 billion, or a portion of that, in new debt? You think that GG is going to put some pressure on our friends from Utah and make them buy CMR or ASA? You think Johnny O has the cash to buy one of us?

I think you've become a little too narrow minded. CMR and or ASA may be IPOd... An extra few million is better than nothing.. A sale, especially in the manner in which you describe is very far fetched and not a good reality. No one will be assuming 8 billion in debt. Delta will continue to pay the debt.. That's the reality of the situation.

You can jump up and down like a little child and say that it's going to happen because GG said we don't need to own you (us) to keep the feed.. The fact of the matter is the economy and industry will not support it.. It just won't right now.

I can understand you being nervous about your future. You should be... we all should be.

An IPO could be even better for Delta but it would take too long to set-up - it can take a long time to register and prepare for a stock filing (Delta doesn't have that amount of time). Delta could then push at least some of the RJ debt onto the newly spun-off entity.

I believe COEX has assumed RJ debt after being spun off from CAL (although a lot of their aircraft are on lease). Again, you would look at the projected cash flows and need to ensure that the debt payments could be supported by operations. Investors would expect positive cash flow covering all debt payments. Delta could also potentially sell any unencumbered aircraft or aircraft debt to lessors or hedge funds (probably at major discounts) to increase its cash position if necessary.

 

[chperplt]

As far as Comair goes, I think Air India might be interested. Have fun in Delhi and don't drink the water....

I love Indian food!!!!!

 

[General Lee]

I love Indian food!!!!!

That's wonderful. Enjoy that!


Bye Bye--General Lee (17 minutes until Conan)

 

[chperplt]

That's wonderful. Enjoy that

I do....quite often. Great buffet off the strip in Vegas. For lunch you can get both a Northern and Southern Indian cuisine.

I guess the big difference between us (besides you always being so uptight) is that you have your career pinned to Delta and mine isn't pinned to Comair. I think that allows me to see the entire issue and not just a microcosm view of it.

Only 4 minutes to Conan... Don't miss it!

 

[Sinca3]

Ok here's my take....
8 Billion seems a bit high!
ASA has paid aproximately 15 million per 50 seater and a tad more for the 70, so lets use 20 million.
100 50's @15 mil = 1.5 billion
35 70's @20 mil = 700 million
Will forget about the ATR's since they are on the way out. Plus I didn't deduct anything for the lower proced 40 seaters we have.
So these number show a debt somewhere in the neighborhood of over 2 billion for just ASA.
If Comair has even 4 billion in debt it would still only be 6 billion worth of debt.
Delta is in debt for over 20 billion dollars.....I'm tired of hearing people say it is the purchase of new RJ's that Delta is in debt. Delta is paying for many other things in its stable that are far costlier. Besides aircraft there are the huge pension payments.
Don't forget the Canadian govt. just agreed to finance lots o $ for Delta to buy RJ's.
Now as for the other scenario about MESA. If there were to be a merger of ASA/Comair, ASA/Skywest, ASA/Comair/Skywest etc. etc. and Delta wants to keep the portfolio going with the current 4 or previous 5 (ACA) airlines bidding on the flying they needed to bring someone else in (enter Mesa).
Enjoy Conan General......

 

[General Lee]

Conan was funny, as always. Anyway, I guess ASA and Comair don't own anything else on their own, like buildings, huffer carts, sims, property, anything. Nah, they only own aircraft. We all don't know what is tied up in owning one of those two airlines. I keep telling you that I heard that number from the CVG chief pilot, and I didn't make it up. Is he correct? I don't really know, but he is privy to more than I am----I just report what I hear. (that is why I stated his title more than once) Also, how many CRJs do you guys have now? How many CR7s? didn't you just get 4 more? At $20 million each? Skywest just bought 20 CR7s for a lot more than $20 million each (Does anyone have a correct $$-- I thought it was 20 for $537 million? That would be approx $27 million each) Maybe ASA left out the 2nd FMS and Skywest didn't....?


As far as Delta's debt, the RJs have a large part as of late. If that $8 billion number is true, taking that away could help out a lot. And remember, those business travellers hate them anyway, so those purchases were a bad idea anyway. Why are we still getting them? Good question. I am hoping we put them in a new Rapid City hub---somewhere LCCs MAY NEVER FLY TO. Then, we have a chance at making real profits with them......


Chperpilot,

I am only 40, and I have other options too. I do enjoy DL, and I hope we recover. I don't mind the criticism, but I do wish you would back up your statements with facts or articles that support your claims. I usually do.
Enjoy the Indian food in LAS---we'll get you there in style....


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[chperplt]

GL,

No... you don't support your statements with articles or facts. (not on this topic anyway) You support your comments with more comments are rhetoric. Your facts are those of quotes from this person or that person. Facts these are not. (Newspaper articles are opinions as well)

In fact, my views on this matter are that of opinion only. I think I've made that more than clear.

I asked you who is going to be willing and able to assume X number of new debt and all you can say is that Delta will force Skywest to do so. You have to have something better than that....

I'm glad you enjoyed Conan. He was pretty funny last night.

 

[mgg20]

General Lee- As usual, I find your takes to be very informative, and usually entertaining. I can remember my first flight on an airline when I was a little kid was a DL 727 GNV-ATL. Ever since then I've wanted to fly for DL. If I decide to leave the Air Force, I hope Delta will still be around, and I hope mgmt can turn things around. Good luck to you and all Delta pilots and employees.

 

[skiddriver]

Why don't you call GG and ask him? Do it. Call him up and tell him he is insane. I think he has a better grasp of the situation than you or I do. He has mentioned a possible sale, and it will happen eventually. He even said we don't need to own you to have value with your services----HE SAID THAT. Expect a sale soon, and I believe Comair will be dumped last, at the lowest price. Oh well, at least the debt will go away.


Bye Bye--General Lee

For starters, there's no "me" in this equation, except that I occasionally have to endure your lousy service and delapidated aircraft on the occasional business trip where I can't book on a better carrier. I left your house of cards a while back for much greener pastures. United, Frontier, Continental, SWA, and especially Virgin Atlantic, all have you beat IMHO.

My point was that your conflicting "we'll get a lot of money in a sale" [which you changed in your latest post] and "we'll dump $8 billion in debt" assertions are mutually exclusive. You might get one or the other, but it's hopelessly optimistic to say you'll get both. The previous comments from other posters that you're going to pay the lease payments on the aircraft anyway, through an increase in payments for feed, or by paying them directly still apply. The only way you'll walk away from that debt is through bankruptcy, and possibly liquidation.

I do deal in aviation contracts now, including negotiating for specific aircraft purchased by our vendors to support our operations. No one takes on debt that they can't recoup from revenue, plus their operating costs, plus a profit. Face it, you've got a sandwich in front of you, and it isn't filled with cheese.

And for the General klingons who will probably ask, "If you aren't in the industry anymore, why do you tweak GL?", the answer is easy. We've got a couple of years of history going here and I'm not going to let a change in employers deprive me of the pleasure of exposing the lack of logic in his posts.

 

[Sinca3]

Also, how many CRJs do you guys have now? How many CR7s? didn't you just get 4 more? At $20 million each? Skywest just bought 20 CR7s for a lot more than $20 million each (Does anyone have a correct $$-- I thought it was 20 for $537 million? That would be approx $27 million each) Maybe ASA left out the 2nd FMS and Skywest didn't....?
Bye Bye--General Lee

Off "MYASA" website:

ASA fleet watch​

May 6, 2005: 10:22 a.m. DST
ASA on Friday took delivery of its newest CRJ700, ship N759EV. With this latest addition, the fleet is now comprised of 33 CRJ700s, 99 CRJ200s and 12 ATR-72s. The average age of the fleet is 3.9 years.

Yes general, we converted 4 of the RFP 50 seaters to 70's. So the total number of airframes is the same (25) just 4 are 70's of which 2 have already been delivered and we are scheduled to take the other 2 by 6/1/05. So the numbers I used were prety spot on.
As for the cost of a rj.....ASA has some of the lowest if not the lowest rates in the industry. I used to have a Eclat (sp?) break down of all regional and their cost. ASA had the lowest a/c cost compared to all other regionals. Bryan L. here at ASA is a very shrewed buyer and gets the rj's for **CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED** near nothing. I have heard the 15 million number from several IP's that have gone to Montreal to pick up the a/c. The 70's were bought for roughly 5 million more than the 50's, and that is from our presidents mouth. There are aproximately 10 40 seater in the ASA inventory and those were purchased for roughly 5 million less than the 50 seater.
So that's were i got my info....maybe not perfect but I'm sure alot more accurate than the DAL CVG chief pilot. If Delta chief pilots are anything like ASA chief pilots they are in the dark about everything just like you and me remember they are pilots too.

Cheers
Sinca
Oh yeah....as for the FMS...ASA only has 1 and NO acars (Skywest has 2 and 1)

 

[MedFlyer]

I don't mind the criticism, but I do wish you would back up your statements with facts or articles that support your claims. I usually do.

That's hilarious. Where's the facts that say DL will have lower debt payments if they sell Comair/ASA to Skywest? You keep making this statement, but you've never provided any support for it.

And what's with this threat of 90 day termination with SkyWest? Where's your factual support for that? According to the SkyWest 10-Q filing,

"The Company’s flight and related operations conducted under the Delta contract flying relationship are governed by a ten-year agreement signed with Delta in 2000."

But even if DL could terminate the relationship in 90 days, how would they replace the feed that fast. SkyWest operates 68 aircraft for DL. Neither ASA, Comair, Mesa or CHQ could replace all that in 90 days. DL would lose a tremendous amount of money in SLC if they terminated the agreement that fast. SkyWest knows this.

I'm sure DL will continue press SkyWest for lower rates and they may get some relief. But there's no way that SkyWest will take on billions in debt without getting a substantial chunk of change from DL to compensate.

 

[General Lee]

Man alive, I wake up in the morning and I get slammed by all of my DCI friends. (Skidd---congrats on getting out of this business) Wow. Where do I begin?


Chprplt,

Well, I usually bring along articles that back up my opinions. As far as hard facts, I am not in the boardroom and really not privy to that info. I am not making things up as I go along here. The Skywest rumor is still an option, and it is supported by my friend out in SLC, who relayed that recurrent info to me, and I have heard it out here in ATL from people in the CPO. Is it a hard fact? No, and again I am not privy to those aquisition disscusions between GG and others. Is it likely given the stuff I have heard and stuff that I read? Sure.


Skidd,

Again, congrats on exiting this business if you wanted to. There has to be an upside to selling ASA or Comair for Delta to do it. GG is not stupid. United slashed the rates for their UAL Express carriers after they went into Chap 11 protection. Maybe Delta stated they wouldn't change the fee for departure rates for Skywest if they purchased ASA? We don't know. As far as INCREASING the payments and not taking the debt...... NO WAY. Sorry, that doesn't float. When someone purchases a company, you get all of the baggage. When Delta bought Western or Northwest bought Republic, they assumed everything.

And, our Song product is very good--rivaling those that you mentioned---we just were awarded top service by Reader's Digest. As far as pointing out that a lot of our planes are old and dirty---I think most businessmen would still prefer them on longer flights than new CR7s.


Sinca,

Thanks for getting me the fleet sizes for ASA. Whatever the cost for the RJs and ATRs, those costs along with items owned by ASA (office space, huffers, vehicles, property, MX hangers, etc) would be included in any sale. And, from what I have heard, somebody frm Utah is sniffing in your backyard.


Medflyer,

If you have debt from RJs, and you sell half of them, you will have lower debt payments. Why is that hard to understand? We would keep the RJ debt? Come on. We would give them over 130 RJs and 12 props for $500 million and call it a deal? Nah.

From what I have heard is that Skywest had a 90 day termination deal in their contract. If DL didn't want their services any more, they would issue that and try to find other feed, and with many airlines in crisis mode these days, it may not be very hard to find more lift, cheaper lift, when the time is right for DL. It is better to keep MAMA happy, and maybe GG expressed that. Again, I am not in the boardroom, so a lot of that is speculation, and I always state that.



Thanks guys for a lively debate. Who knows what will happen, but I am sure GG has some sort of plan, and we shall see what happens in time. As far as Conan, I loved the part where that beef cake guy kept coming into the studio asking for directions to Carson Daly's studio, and they would play that music. That was funny.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[chperplt]

GL,

I agree that everything you're saying sounds like a good plan for Delta. My only point is that I don't think it's a doable option right now.

Time will tell..

Conan has some issues.. He's a funny dude, but he's got some issues.

 

[Beantown]

I don't think US Air ever even asked Mesa for exit financing money. I could be totally wrong, but I think Mesa is on the way out at U.

I know for a fact that U went to Mesa for cash. So far Mesa has said no. Mgmt told the MEC that they took a long look at the business plan and found a number of big holes. Of course, this was before the whole U/HP. So that could all change. -Bean

 

[MedFlyer]

Medflyer,

If you have debt from RJs, and you sell half of them, you will have lower debt payments. Why is that hard to understand? We would keep the RJ debt? Come on. We would give them over 130 RJs and 12 props for $500 million and call it a deal? Nah.

I'm sure SkyWest would take the debt and in turn they would jack up their fee for departure rates in order to cover the debt. Do you honestly believe SkyWest would take on BILLIONS in debt without getting a revenue stream to service it?

Instead of making debt payments, DL would just pay super high fee for departure rates. Either way, DL WILL still pay. That's the point you seem to miss. The debt expense will not go away, it will just change in form.

 

[skiddriver]

...

Skidd,

Again, congrats on exiting this business if you wanted to. There has to be an upside to selling ASA or Comair for Delta to do it. GG is not stupid. United slashed the rates for their UAL Express carriers after they went into Chap 11 protection. Maybe Delta stated they wouldn't change the fee for departure rates for Skywest if they purchased ASA? We don't know. As far as INCREASING the payments and not taking the debt...... NO WAY. Sorry, that doesn't float. When someone purchases a company, you get all of the baggage. When Delta bought Western or Northwest bought Republic, they assumed everything.

And, our Song product is very good--rivaling those that you mentioned---we just were awarded top service by Reader's Digest. As far as pointing out that a lot of our planes are old and dirty---I think most businessmen would still prefer them on longer flights than new CR7s....

Bye Bye--General Lee

And there you go being nice and ruin it all...

The jump to aviation management was completely voluntary and meant changing my commute from a two hour J/S to CVG to a 15 minute bicycle ride from home, at quadruple the pay. The work is more appealing to me as well (no accounting for taste).

Anyway, just to put another dent in this expired equine, I would never imagine that Delta would sell the WOs without selling the debt too. My assertion is that it's going to decrease the selling price, and that if the people negotiating the agreement are at least as smart as I am (not hard to do) they're going to structure it to ensure that the debt costs are covered in the rate and that they have a guaranteed period of service. That means that Delta is still going to be paying the lease costs, just indirectly.

And all verbal/text-based kidding aside, I still hope that Delta and CMR/ASA make it through this whole thing okay, as I have friends at each carrier. And if GL finds his happy place, well so much the better.

I'll see if I can't try out Song, but they don't service most of my usual destinations.