csmith
csmith said:
Hey Surplus,
FWIW, I give us slim chances at the end of the month. I certainly do not believe that FM still applies. I believe that immediately following the attacks, when the airspace was shut down, that immediate furloughs were justified. In the months that followed, loads were way down, FM was justified. Then came Enron, then the recession hit full steam, although most analysts agree that it started well before 911. Even Mr. Mullin himself was quoted prior to 911 that he would like to reduce staffing. I do NOT believe that people are so scared that they will not get on an airplane. They just need a little extra incentive with this very serious recession which we are/were in. I also do NOT believe that we are doing as poorly as our company might have us believe. Figures lie and liars figure. The airline industry, IMO, would show meager profits at best right now. To paint the bleakest picture possible benefits them in three ways: perhaps the largest to get subsidy from the govt. for terrorist insurance, relief from security fees, tax benefits, etc----of course to take a shot at labor who made great strides over the past 5 years in securing pay which had been stagnant for the previous decade---and to further their case for consolidation. I don't think it is over yet with UAL and USAirways. I don't think it is over yet between Delta and XXX. These guys have an agenda, and this attack is being utilized to the fullest. A war with Iraq, IMO, will set this ball in motion. Ch11s followed by consolidation.
While it may surprise you, I think your reasoning and your logic are both sound in this respect. In the beginning I think the FM ruling was correct, but at this point in time I agree with you that it no longer is.
I also agree that in the main, people are no longer too scared to fly. The business passenger resents the hassles and long lines and the high-dollar people that still have to travel are using Fractionals, corporate aircraft and charters much more than they were before. The economy has forced business, in general, to reduce travel as much as possible. This hurts the big carriers because the discretionary traveler seeks only the lowest fare.
Something I would add is that I have never understood the idea of selling your product for less than it costs you to produce it, but every one seems to be doing it. And would you believe I didn't even flunk economics? I understand "loss leaders" but when the entire product becomes a loss leader, bankruptcy gets closer with every sale.
Additionally, I agree pretty much with your assessment of the three reasons why balance sheets are now being skewed to the down side just as others were skewed to the up side when that was serving the corporate interest.
If we go to war in the ME or if we have another major airline related attack on the US, I can only guess as to the ramifications. I don't think it would be pretty. Either way, the consolidations and the code shares will proliferate. I don't see either as beneficial to pilots in the long run.
How does Bloch fit into all of this? Good question. Let's just say that he will rule against us for the wrong reasons, as he has in the past, IMO. The agenda is out there, and will be followed for whatever it takes.
While I don't think Bloch ruled incorrectly the first time around, I don't know what he'll do this time. You could be right on your assumption but I hope that you aren't.
Should he rule in our favor, I fully expect a prompt recall schedule. Many of the pilots returning promptly would save dramatically on training costs. The LCC could be the breeding ground for just this event. Speaking of LCC, it will be flown by delta pilots.
I don't know if I can agree on the prompt recall schedule if you get a favorable FM ruling. The Company will explore every possibility to avoid recalls until economic conditions create a need for pilots. I know that's not your PWA, but they will find a way around that if they can. I don't want that to happen, I just believe that it will.
As for the LCC, assuming your MEC agrees to what the Company wants and the concept is successful, it could certainly increase the need for pilots and hasten recalls. I hope that it wll. The idea that using bigger airplanes will allow you to compete with the other LCC's is an interesting concept. If you can fill those airplanes, it could work. However, if you can't fill them, it will be a bigger problem. Unless you make major concessions, Delta simply cannot match the cost structure of the competing LCC's. It's a bit risky.
Based on the type of aircraft that we think are planned for the LCC, I would expect them to be flown by Delta pilots. Those are your airplanes and that is your flying. That's the way it should be.
Good ones I might add.
PS. I know you think I'm against you (as a group), but really I am not. I only oppose what I see as unreasonable positions towards my group. The success of the Company will result in your success and ours as well. I'm all for that.
Ninety percent of DL pilots are great people. We have about the same percentage of a$$holes. You have many more than we do, but that's only because you outnumber us 10:1. The percentile is about the same.
I just wish all of yours weren't on your MEC. [Smile please, that's supposed to be funny. I don't really mean it. It's only half.] <BSEG>
