?Current pilot supply?

[:-)]

Just curious. I noticed that someone has started a string about a regional carrier advertising for FOs, and it made me wonder.......Are regional carriers having trouble filling classes? Or, are those carriers having trouble filling classes with young, eager, willing to work for less, pilots. That is, does a furloughed major guy have a chance, or does MESA,CHA,etc management prefer to hire pilots who are, shall we say, slight more "influance-able"?

Just what does supply look like versus demand for the traditionally entry level jobs.

Hopefully, no one will take this as a slap against young, "infleance-able" pilots. I was one once, and I worked for 5.6 cents a mile too. I'm really wondering if the supply is drying up, not looking down on the beginners.



PS, I do realize that most furloughed major pilots probably don't want to work for entry level wages, personally, I can't. I can make more money doing other things, and unfortunately I'm at the age and have too many responsibilities to put my career first.

 

[Turkey Shoot]

The indicators have been pointing towards a move to have to hire much less experienced pilots for a time now. Since Key Bank stopped the loan process for aviation students, there has been a much smaller group able to even make it into school. (Key Bank was the more liberal guaranteers of the bunch) This was marked by a sharp increase in flight schools closing their doors. The current fuel prices only accelerated this epidemic.

On top of that, all the news from the airlines has been basicly negative which I am sure has put the brakes on many prospects seeking entry into the profession.

To sson to tell what effect this will have on work rules and pay but I do know that as long as airlines can keep guys walking in to interview, the pot will become no sweeter. I still think that in ten years, we will see a dramaticaly different industry than what we are faced with today, for the better. But hell, I am the eternal optimist. What the heck do I know. I going for another beer.

 

[YourPilotFriend]

I personally think management is stating they have an oversupply of pilots to keep wages down.

 

[pilotyip]

There is growing pilot shortage on the entry-level jobs. Airlines have not lowered their standards; they have just redefined their competitive minimums. Look at Pinnacle, how has a hiring bonus, room provided, and per-diem while in ground school. They had to do this because they could not fill their classes. All part of the coming 2007 hiring boom. Except it will not bang like 97, and 87 where the majors where the driving force.

 

[:-)]

pilotyip, what kind of experience level are you seeing apply at your carrier? Has the shortage gotten to the small/medium jet freight carriers yet?

thanks in advance,

 

[pilotyip]

We hire so few due to low turnover that we are still able to be selective in hiring higher time pilots who can move to the DC-9 or DA-20 Captain within a year of being hired. Plus our pay is much better than the regionals. However the turnover in the pool has gone up drastically, the half life in down below 8 weeks. Meaning half of the pool will find other jobs within 8 weeks of interviewing. One year ago the half life was about 12-16 weeks. So to answer your question it has not effected our hiring, but we have to interview more to keep a pool of about 12 pilots. I know Ameristar is advertizing to fill a class on 4-10-06. I do not know how they are doing finding pilots.

 

[Bristol]

pilotyip, when you talk about a boom in 2007 how many are you thinking? Any guesses?

 

[pilotyip]

Using Kit's numbers probably as good as anything else available, there has been a steady increase in hiring since 2003. The shortage on the lower end of the hiring market shows the supply of pilots is decreasing. I would guess next year will be about 15% above this year. The old rule I believe still applys; years ending 7 is great for jobs, and years ending in 2 is bad for jobs.

 

[AutoBus]

Just curious. I noticed that someone has started a string about a regional carrier advertising for FOs, and it made me wonder.......Are regional carriers having trouble filling classes? Or, are those carriers having trouble filling classes with young, eager, willing to work for less, pilots. That is, does a furloughed major guy have a chance, or does MESA,CHA,etc management prefer to hire pilots who are, shall we say, slight more "influance-able"?

Just what does supply look like versus demand for the traditionally entry level jobs.

If you want to work cheap, plenty of jobs.

 

[WMUSIGPI]

The boom is quality jobs going up in smoke. Sure there are jobs, just not many that can support a family anymore. More and more every day in this country (and tons in Michigan).