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Crain's Business sees tough UAL future

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F9,
what part of the post you cited was incorrect? The "codename" part? The matching of FRNT fares? Why do you think FRNT keeps "cutting" fares? benevolence? or maybe a dent in earnings is already underway? Your yield plummeted, and TED hasn't even started yet.

As to UAL's Cash position. 2.4 BILLION while paying down DIP loans... Yeah that sucks.

Will they meet Feb Dip? Don't know, I honestly thought Dec would be missed. If they do miss it, will it be the end? NO.

Extension of BK. U left BK too soon, under pressure from it's CC processor. Didn't get the lease rates beat down enough. UAL even considered leaving before the end of 2003. Why? They thought they'd miss DIP and be forced to. The fact they are seeking to extend BK means they think they can drive costs EVEN LOWER. That sucks for employees, but not for the long term viability of the francise.

"Doesn't UAL outsource a bunch of their MX now? So that is just setting them up for a crash? I truly hope not!"

UAL still outsources much less than the rest of the industry. In the past UAL did almost ALL MX in house. Safety DOES suffer when MX goes outside. Will it cause an accident? I hope not. In the case of VJ, they not only outsourced, the outsourcers outsourced and then the outsourced oursources outsourced. They had guys who could read write or even understand english pulling the O2 gens off MD-80's, UNDER CONTRACT AND AT THE DIRECTION OF VJ. The FO signed off on the illegal (EVEN IF THEY WERE EMPTY) cargo. They thought it was just an electrical problem at first. Why? that same jet had been popping CB's all day (and they were just reset over and over and over, with no corrective action)

Dave,
re past business ventures: They came from the days of more cash than the company knew what to do with. UAL has handed out on the order of 4 BILLION in dividends in the last 20 years. I'll agree that BIG mistakes were made. That should have been plowed back into the core business. No argument here.

"Once again management strays from the core business and tries to reinvent Shuttle."

The core busness is flying pax from point A to point B. Did SWA "stray" when they started transcons? When they went into MDW? BWI? PHL? every crazy idea out there is a failure until it suceeds.

"I remember UAL folks telling me how SWA was going to be put out of business."

And UAL's wages went up, while SWA took a five year pay freeze. Arguably the diff was WAGES. You no longer have that advantage. SWA proved that you can pay guys less, work them more and they will gladly do it for a few stock options. That gave other, arguably less scupilous CEO's an example to point to. "If only you guys will work for X, we can do what SWA did and you wil get rich on stock". SWA created that ponzi scheme, and industry wages will never again be the same. As a matter of fact, SWA will be the leader soon and the stock options you rely on to "make up the differance" will become worthless.

RE SWA retirement:
Funny, I have two retirement plans. One is pilot directed CASH. 9%. The other is a federally insured A-plan. The cumulative cost of both is about 20% of wages. I don't have to match anything (ie, the company can't save money by paying me so little I can't afford to contribute, so no match) Your's?

In any case, SWA was not mentioned until NTSing decided he needed to cock off about something he has a feeble understanding of.

Oh and Falcon Jet, econ 101 was about 20-30 econ classes ago. You? That was probably the highest level you achieved. College? Otherwise you wouldn't be a "wanna be" in a falcon
 
T-Bags,

I have seen you here on this board and it seems that you get quite a "kick" out of getting people all worked up. I'm not taking the bait, so just consider this my last response to you. I will address your questions now.

" XUAL, might I suggest you change your name and avitor? Or do you still wish to be associated with UAL?"

Actually, I was thinking of changing it but just have been too lazy lately. Trying to remember about the avitar stuff. Anyway, I believe the name says UAL X 727, as in I used to be on the 727 over there. This was before I got hired at AirTran, hence the name. If I had been at AirTran at the time I joined this site, yeah I probably would have done some kind of AirTran name. By the way, what is with that T-Bag thing? Isn't that some kind of gay thing like some have said on the board. If I were you, I would think about changing yours as well.

"BTW was UAL "profitable" when you got hired? How come AT has a much lower PE than all the other LCC's? Could it be the smart money knows more than you? Have you checked the balance sheet?"

Actually, when I was hired at UAL they had their first quarter showing a loss. Maybe I'm bad luck, who knows. As far as the Wall Street stuff, just go to the website like I've posted, click on audio archives and listen to the two presentations. They could give you more detailed info than myself. I do know that we have over 350 million in the bank, made over 21 million last quarter, and have a cost structure very similiar to Southwest's. We will double in size in the next 4 years, that's not too shabby.

"Wow so you paid dues for a few years, and when times got rough, you ran off to a scab carrier..."

Last time I looked at my little yellow scab-list book given to me while at UAL, there were HUNDREDS of scabs on your property, essentially many, many more than were ever at AirTran. I guess Continental is ALPA now as well. Are there any scabs over there?? Must not be since they are ALPA. Take a look at the entire industry before you mouth off.

"Something makes me think that you will climbing over other guys to get back to old UAL as quickly as possible."

Dude, you are really far off with that one..... Yeah, that makes sense......HMMM, I think I would want to leave a growing, profitable, and up-beat company as a captain with half of the list below me. To go back to a shrinking company at the bottom of a 7200 pilot list. I have no ill-will toward UAL, I hope they make it, but AirTran is just a better opportunity.

T-Bags, my last thoughts as I read your post's are, "Geez, no wonder the rest of the industry thinks UAL guys are pricks."
 
T-Bags said:
"Once again management strays from the core business and tries to reinvent Shuttle."

The core busness is flying pax from point A to point B. Did SWA "stray" when they started transcons? When they went into MDW? BWI? PHL? every crazy idea out there is a failure until it suceeds.


I'm not sure if the transcons qualify as straying from the biz plan. I look at it as more of an extension. SWA has a knack for identifying markets. The 737-800 can serve markets that the 200's and 300's could not serve. Long haul routes can be quite profitable. Why not put the 800 to use where it serves the company and the shareholders the best? Overall I think SWA has done a great job of sticking with a simple repeatable business plan.
 
Thanks for hijacking this thread into yet another LCC/Network Carrier pi$$ing contest, Bags. Repeat after me:

"It's all Southwest's fault"
"It's all AirTran's fault"

Feel better? Good....now go to your happy place. :rolleyes:
 
T-Bags said:
And UAL's wages went up, while SWA took a five year pay freeze. Arguably the diff was WAGES. You no longer have that advantage. SWA proved that you can pay guys less, work them more and they will gladly do it for a few stock options. That gave other, arguably less scupilous CEO's an example to point to. "If only you guys will work for X, we can do what SWA did and you wil get rich on stock". SWA created that ponzi scheme, and industry wages will never again be the same.

..............now to 2004.............

And SWA's wages went up, while UAL took a five year pay freeze. Arguably the diff was WAGES. You no longer have that advantage. UAL proved that you can pay guys less, work them more and they will gladly do it to save their jobs. That gave other, arguably less scupilous CEO's an example to point to. "If only you guys will work for X, we can do what UAL did and you will keep your jobs". UAL created that ponzi scheme, and industry wages will never again be the same.

Just change the name and is all too true. The reality is you created a new low and are uncomfortable with it. Get on with your life and keep trust in your management, you seem to be behind them 100%. Nothing worse than trying to get a bigger share of a shrinking market. That is the path to doom.
 
I love how the United guys point fingers and call others scab when more scabs worked for UAL than any other carrier.

You don't believe me? Ask anyone who was there in 1985. Of course a lot of those scabs are retired now. However, there are a lot of them still there, very senior, and pi**ing on the junior pilots.
 
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T-bags: You have an "A-fund" that is federal insured??

If you are leading to the PBGC then you must know that the MAX you "might" ever see is 66,000/yr. Ask some UsAir guys about their pension insurance. (then if you have the time ask some EAL, TWA, Pan AM about their settlement after the Bankrupty ruling) You will be extremely surprised what's left after all the rats take a piece of the cake. Pilots pension funds are crumbs on the floor.

Sad to say but you might want to ask how much are you going to receive after United comes out of bankrupty. You will be surprised....
 
Hey Bags...

At least those "scab" jobs are staying on this side of the Atlantic. If you haven't noticed, WAY to many American service and manufacturing jobs are being setup over seas. Even AMERICAN companies are outsourcing a lot of labor to foreign nationals.

I don't like it anymore than you don't like it, but you gotta do what ya gotta do. If you have find a way to pay rent by just bitching, please let me know.

P.S.

Some WN jobs ARE underpaid. Their rampers start at $8.75/hr and I don't think they get to sit out half of the shift like UAL rampers get/got to. B6 OTOH, starts out at $10.50/hr. However, B6 doesn't hire off-the-street full timers, ya gotta start part time.
 

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