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Continental Redeems Golden Share, considers leaving SkyTeam

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Eagle757shark

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Joined
Jul 31, 2006
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Continental reports first-quarter loss, redeems golden share, considers leaving SkyTeam

Friday April 18, 2008
Continental Airlines reported a first-quarter net loss of $80 million, reversed from a $22 million profit in the year-ago period, and confirmed yesterday that it has redeemed Northwest Airlines' "golden share" that prevented CO from entering into merger agreements.
NWA's golden share was contingent on the former not entering into any merger agreement. Its tie-up pact with Delta Air Lines earlier this week (ATWOnline, April 16) allowed CO to buy back the share for $100, leaving the Houston-based carrier free to explore a merger of its own. Chairman and CEO Larry Kellner said that an approved NWA-DL merger "will change the competitive landscape" of the US industry, adding that the proposed combination has caused CO to consider its "strategic" options. "We're reviewing our continued participation" in the SkyTeam alliance, he said, but emphasized that it remained "important that we're a major player in one of the three alliances." He declined further comment on any merger possibilities but said, "We have flexibility."
Kellner insisted the first-quarter loss was a "solid" result given high fuel costs, "excess capacity" in the domestic market, the US credit crisis and a weakening economy. To contend with the difficult environment, CO will cut domestic mainline capacity by 5% on an annual run-rate basis beginning this fall. It said yesterday it will remove from service an additional 14 737-300s as their leases expire from September 2008 to April 2009. It already had planned to remove 34 -300s/-500s from service this year and next.
First-quarter revenue increased 12.3% to $3.57 billion but expenses jumped 16.7% to $3.64 billion led by a 53.2% leap in fuel costs to $1.05 billion, producing an operating loss of $66 million, reversed from a $64 million profit last year. Mainline traffic grew 4.4% to 19.92 billion RPMs on a 4.8% rise in capacity to 25.28 billion ASMs, resulting in a load factor of 78.8%, down 1.1 points. Yield increased 7.2% 13.45 cents as RASM lifted 7.1% to 11.93 cents and CASM climbed 11.6% to 11.79 cents.

by Aaron Karp
 
Continental reports first-quarter loss, redeems golden share, considers leaving SkyTeam

Friday April 18, 2008
Continental Airlines reported a first-quarter net loss of $80 million, reversed from a $22 million profit in the year-ago period, and confirmed yesterday that it has redeemed Northwest Airlines' "golden share" that prevented CO from entering into merger agreements.
NWA's golden share was contingent on the former not entering into any merger agreement. Its tie-up pact with Delta Air Lines earlier this week (ATWOnline, April 16) allowed CO to buy back the share for $100, leaving the Houston-based carrier free to explore a merger of its own. Chairman and CEO Larry Kellner said that an approved NWA-DL merger "will change the competitive landscape" of the US industry, adding that the proposed combination has caused CO to consider its "strategic" options. "We're reviewing our continued participation" in the SkyTeam alliance, he said, but emphasized that it remained "important that we're a major player in one of the three alliances." He declined further comment on any merger possibilities but said, "We have flexibility."
Kellner insisted the first-quarter loss was a "solid" result given high fuel costs, "excess capacity" in the domestic market, the US credit crisis and a weakening economy. To contend with the difficult environment, CO will cut domestic mainline capacity by 5% on an annual run-rate basis beginning this fall. It said yesterday it will remove from service an additional 14 737-300s as their leases expire from September 2008 to April 2009. It already had planned to remove 34 -300s/-500s from service this year and next.
First-quarter revenue increased 12.3% to $3.57 billion but expenses jumped 16.7% to $3.64 billion led by a 53.2% leap in fuel costs to $1.05 billion, producing an operating loss of $66 million, reversed from a $64 million profit last year. Mainline traffic grew 4.4% to 19.92 billion RPMs on a 4.8% rise in capacity to 25.28 billion ASMs, resulting in a load factor of 78.8%, down 1.1 points. Yield increased 7.2% 13.45 cents as RASM lifted 7.1% to 11.93 cents and CASM climbed 11.6% to 11.79 cents.

by Aaron Karp

48 airplanes in two years is this correct?
 
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Tough market. If they leave SkyTeam, I will be surprised.
 
Tough market. If they leave SkyTeam, I will be surprised.

If I were a betting man... I think they will join Star Alliance when they merge with UAL and the 2 of them will get anti-trust immunity with Lufthansa.
 
What about widebody growth.

Two of the recently added 777 orders come in the last quarter of '09. The rest are 2011 and beyond (and can be converted to 787's), I'm pretty sure that we're not counting on getting any of the 787's until 2010.

We have 363 aircraft in service right now. In the earnings conference call it was stated that we will end 2008 with 379 aircraft and end 2009 with 369 aircraft.

They would probably end 2008 with the 369 number if they could but most of the classic 737's that are being retired are coming off of leases so they are wating until the leases expire.
 
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If I were a betting man... I think they will join Star Alliance when they merge with UAL and the 2 of them will get anti-trust immunity with Lufthansa.

It was also stated in the earnings call yesterday that we need to be in one of the three major global alliances in order to survive. So I would suspect that any move out of Skyteam would be in to the Star Alliance or the One World Alliance.

I'm not sure how the One World move would work but who knows? That may be the preferrable route for us.
 
I think Continental and Alaska will merge, and USAir and United will merge. Continental and Alaska can still stay in the skyteam if that happens.
 
I think Continental and Alaska will merge, and USAir and United will merge. Continental and Alaska can still stay in the skyteam if that happens.

Alaska is a good airline and would be a good fit, route wise, but its not enough.

If the DAL/NWA deal goes through we will need to grow rapidly to compete. The problem is where do we get the aircraft from? Especially the widebodies? Boeing is backordered and Airbus isn't even a consideration.
 
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Alaska is a good airline and would be a good fit, route wise, but its not enough.

If the DAL/NWA deal goes through we will need to grow rapidly to compete. The problem is where do we get the aircraft from? Especially the widebodies? Boeing is backordered and Airbus isn't even a consideration.
Just having fun but what about this, United and US Airways merge. Then Continental, Alaska and AirTran merge. Would that be big enough? Looking at all these different scenarios, thought I'd throw out another one. Heck....I don't know what is going to happen!
 
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Actually, I think you're right CAL/AS wouldn't provide the gravitas CAL needs in the wake of NWA/DAL.
 
Just having fun but what about this, United and US Airways merge. Then Continental, Alaska and AirTran merge. Would that be big enough? Looking at all these different scenarios, thought I'd throw out another one. Heck....I don't know what is going to happen!

Right now it would be a very poor move to merge with a domestic only airline. What CAL is looking for is international routes with the associated widebodies. Tacking on more low yield domestic flights would only hurt CAL at this time. Now down the road, I think these mega-airlines are going to need to stregthen their domestic operations to feed the international stuff. Right now they just need the cash generating international routes and the pricing power of having less big players. When they start making billions per year, then they can work on some of the smaller domestic operations.
 
If I were a betting man... I think they will join Star Alliance when they merge with UAL and the 2 of them will get anti-trust immunity with Lufthansa.

Something to think about is the Lufthansy investment in JetBlue. I kinda think whoever ends up with UAL will also end up with JetBlue. CAL/UAL/JBLU would be a hard sell to the DOJ with EWR and JFK. UAIR/UAL/JBLU might be easier and the seniority integration wouldn't be as difficult with the new USAPA representation and no representation at JBLU. Everyone was excpecting the DAL/NWA deal, but I kinda think the next one will surprise us.
 
LH's JBLU investment is probably just to keep Delta's hands off of JBLU to protect a goldmine NYC market for its future partner. Because LH knows it needs a strong North Atlantic partner (whoever that may be) more than ever in the wake of AF/KL/NW/DL.
 
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LH's JBLU investment is probably just to keep Delta's hands off of JBLU to protect a goldmine NYC market for its future partner. Because LH knows it needs a strong North Atlantic partner (whoever that may be) more than ever in the wake of AF/KL/NW/DL.

You may be right. I did hear a Delta exec say that they were not interested in Jetblue because they did not want anymore domestic routes and almost all of Jetblue's routes overlap Delta routes. At one point they were considering it to remove competition and take control of JFK, but decided it would not be worth the investment. It would have added no value to Delta other than increase pricing power. I think UAIR is going to make a play for someone else, and I think the likely target will be UAL. With JetBlue having control of the domestic market out of JFK, I think that whoever ends up with UAL may also make a play for JetBlue. I guess we'll see.
 
Something to think about is the Lufthansy investment in JetBlue. I kinda think whoever ends up with UAL will also end up with JetBlue. CAL/UAL/JBLU would be a hard sell to the DOJ with EWR and JFK. UAIR/UAL/JBLU might be easier and the seniority integration wouldn't be as difficult with the new USAPA representation and no representation at JBLU. Everyone was excpecting the DAL/NWA deal, but I kinda think the next one will surprise us.

This could turn out to be a very well played move by UA/LH and the 'DeathStar'. JBLU fits better with UAL than any other airline(NO employee personal feelings aren't considered here!). UA is small in the NY and BOS area outside of it's UsAirways codeshare, and beyond the obvious fleet match, United has proven to be the most committed of the network majors to the airline within an airline branding concept. Shuttle by United continued after the imitators went away and basically morphed itself into TED which still stands long after Song has gone away. JetBlue's inflight product seems like an obvious improvement to the TED product/concept at minimal cost.

However, to make an acquisition/merger ahead of industry consolidation would be shortsighted because of DOJ concerns. Letting LH get their hands in JetBlue's pockets to keep them out of play may turn out to be brilliant and may setup the weakest of the 'big three' in the NYC area to be the biggest. They could let JetBlue stay separate like DAL/NWA is doing with Midex and reap the codeshare revenue, secure in the knowledge that they will get first crack at the assets if they fail for some reason. Question is, does Star get greedy and try to keep UsAirways in as well if UA/CO merge? That would be quite an alliance, especially in the NY/BOS/DC areas if B6 gets included eventually....
 
LH puts money into JBLU just so it keeps it going, and nothing more. Because if it falls apart, Delta would pick up the JFK slots and facilities for cheap and increase hub presence in JFK and overrun Continental in EWR. That cannot happen. LH is just playing its cards to preserve the future STAR presence in NYC.
 
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