LaTechPilot2003 said:
...From what I was told, XJT is goin to run a newhire class of 16 every week from now until the end of the year and current newhires are being told to expect to upgrade in 2 yrs...so even if I don't get on until this summer, I should have just as many pilots junior to me at XJT that I currently have at Eagle...
It doesn't matter how many people are under you...it only matters how many people are above you.
I'll just say that I was hired at Eagle in 1999 and I have a resume in at ComAir. I am about 1700 on the seniority list...if you've been at Eagle a year it puts you at about 2500 or so give or take. Prior to 9/11 the seniority number for new captain upgrades went down about 40-50 a month on average. This was during a time when we were receiving 3-4 jets per month, all the major were hiring and American was hiring 100 pilots a month. With no new jets, it will probably move more like 10 or 20 numbers junior a month, if that. So if nothing drastic happens you will upgrade 40 months (3 years 4 months) after I do. I will not upgrade for at least a year AFTER AA starts recalling their Throw bAAcks. The big question is when will they begin recalling. Even if AA began recalling TODAY, you won't be a captain for at least 4-5 years from now.
With the increased cost of jet fuel...the economics of the RJ is not what it used to be. An RJ is not very efficient for the airline were it not for the fact that the crews (and rampers, and ticket agents, etc.) are cheap. Now fuel is the major cost in operating the airplane. In other words...WE AIN'T GETTING ANY NEW ONES ANYTIME SOON. In fact AMR cx'd a bunch of ERJ's last November remember? AMR didn't exercise the options on the CRJ's either. Once the last jets roll in this summer, you're going to be looking back to now, remembering these as "the good ol' days"
The problem with Eagle is we still got to take these throw bAAcks without new equipment to slow the domino effect. To make matters worse, we are retiring the SAABs over the next few years. You are going to see displacements on a scale Eagle pilots haven't seen since right after 9/11.
If you've only been here a year you ain't got the furlough protection, no matter how flimsey. There is a real good chance that you could be out on the street once these displacements get going...or worse...on the rock.
If ANYONE who was on the seniority list at Eagle on 9/12/01 went just about anywhere...they would be captains or at least very senior FO's at their new airline by now.
Good luck