COEX Seniority List

[WWEfan]

How many pilots are on the seniority list at COEX?

What number would an 8 year pilot be on that list?

Thanks. Just wondering where I'll be when you guys buy ASA.

 

[dojetdriver]

How many pilots are on the seniority list at COEX?

What number would an 8 year pilot be on that list?

Thanks. Just wondering where I'll be when you guys buy ASA.

I think I'm going to start marinating a steak. I'd hate to see the flame from this one get wasted and not be able to at least have a fine barbeque.

 

[Flechas]

So I'm going to Philly this week, anything good to do there?

 

[Nova]

How many pilots are on the seniority list at COEX?

The latest seniority list as of yesterday shows 2570 pilots. That includes everyone hired through April 11th.

What number would an 8 year pilot be on that list?

8 years would put you at number 293 with a good chance that you would be leaving for CAL in the next few months.

 

[Truckdriver]

What number would an 8 year pilot be on that list?

8 years would put you at number 293 with a good chance that you would be leaving for CAL in the next few months.

I heard that GC is telling people at the training center that CAL is going to take 8 per month from XJT and the rest of their guys will come from off the street hires. So if you were around number 293, then you would be going to CAL in the next few years not months. Movement at XJT has officially came to a screeching halt if the 8 per month number is true.

 

[captjim]

I heard that GC is telling people at the training center that CAL is going to take 8 per month from XJT and the rest of their guys will come from off the street hires. So if you were around number 293, then you would be going to CAL in the next few years not months. Movement at XJT has officially came to a screeching halt if the 8 per month number is true.

If that number of 8 is correct, which I doubt will be when all is said and done, then you'll have to account for other attrition. You have to factor in the loss of pilots to SWA, Airtran, Jetblue, UPS, FedEx, etc. I would say worst case around here would be more like 15 per month going forward which isn't that bad.

 

[Truckdriver]

I personally heard Peter Sailer tell a class that they only have on average the last year about 3-4 per month leaving for other airlines. In the crew room you hear there are about 20-30 per month. I believe that 3-4 per month is more realistic. I think CAL said they were going to hire 48 per month. My bet is that they end up taking 1/3 of those from XJT under the old 1 for 3 ratio. So that would be 16 per month plus about 4 leaving elsewhere. I'll bet it will end up around 20 per month leaving the list. Better than none, but still not stellar movement like we have seen the last year.

 

[FlyChicaga]

From what I understand, they still need to hire about 400 pilots for growth (aircraft deliveries). The word is 3000 pilots total for 274 airframes. There have been other rumors about 3400-3700 pilots total, but I don't know how accurate that is. Say another 300-400 pilots leave for CAL or anyone else in the next year, and they need to hire for that attrition (PIP and OTS COEX). That means they'll need to hire 400 to bring the list to 3000, then another 300-400 for attrition. So around 700-800 pilots by the end of 2006. I'd say that is pretty good movement... at least a quarter of the list.

So we'll all be hanging out fat, dumb and happy at the end of '06, then half of us will get furloughed in '07 when we are underbid by Mesa.

 

[Nova]

It's not movement if they are being added behind you. If 300 pilots were to leave we'd see a 10% movement forward.

 

[Flechas]

It's not movement if they are being added behind you. If 300 pilots were to leave we'd see a 10% movement forward.

It is movement because you are higher in the relative seniority.

 

[SkyBoy1981]

I don't think we are going to see 300-400 pilots leave for attrition over the next year. Not unless the majors suddenly hit a hiring boom...which isn't going to happen.

 

[FCNelson]

It is movement because you are higher in the relative seniority.

Well said. The FO's will benefit because their position within the FO ranks will increase, gradually. God help whoever is tacked on to the bottom of the list.

I still think it will be interesting to see what works out in 2007 for you guys & CAL contract renewal. Unfortunately I believe its inevitable another RJ operator will muscle in on your territory.....

 

[Irish Pilot]

It's not movement if they are being added behind you. If 300 pilots were to leave we'd see a 10% movement forward.

I was always told

"Its not how many are in front, its how many you have below you."

 

[DoinTime]

The word is 3000 pilots total for 274 airframes. There have been other rumors about 3400-3700 pilots total, but I don't know how accurate that is.

3700 pilots for 274 airframes??? WTF are you going to do with 13.5 crewmembers per aircraft? We have one of the highest daily aircraft utilization in the 50-seat industry and we staff around 9 crewmembers per airframe. Granted we are always short staffed but we aren't 33% short.

If XJET hires 3700 pilots to fly 274 jungle jets you can be guaranteed that Mesa will underbid you guys because your crew costs will be out of control.

 

[Nova]

It is movement because you are higher in the relative seniority.

Relative seniority doesn't mean squat unless we are seeing a growth in flying, specifically lines. If there are 500 lines in IAH and you are number 501 but they continue to add a few hundred pilots behind you on the seniority list are you really moving anywhere? You're still not a line holder.

Remember we are not properly staffed and future growth in lines won't be proportional to the amount of new pilots. I'm just curious what tangible gain you expect to see with "relative seniority" (and remember line numbers aren't dictated by this benchmark).

I was always told

"Its not how many are in front, its how many you have below you."

When referring to job security then yes, you are correct.

Such an argument could be made if we were properly staffed but we are not. Those long term hiring numbers aren't there for growth but to fill out the staffing ratios. We'll see some short term growth in the number of lines as the staffing improves but after that your "relative seniority" won't directly translate into movement.

 

[captjim]

Call me nuts guys, but 2007 doesn't have me shaking in my boots, 2008 could be of concern. CAL's scope limits us at 274 airframes, we are going to recieve 274 airframes. That means for someone to come into the system, CAL would have to give us a 12 month notice to begin pulling down aircraft. After that notice "X" amount of aircraft could come from us, at which point Cal would then assume the lease payments. After that CAL could then begin to allocate those aircraft elsewhere.

However, all of the jets we fly are subleased to XJT. In the terms of the sublease, XJT has the right to keep those aircraft and put them to work somewhere else should the above happen. Given this, I don't see there being much of an advantage in CAL doing that, cost, performance or other. I could and most likely am wrong though!

 

[MECH]

We would only get to above 2800 to 3000 pilots, if the 100 options are turned into actual deliveries.

 

[Flechas]

I think there will be no changes after 2007, maybe they will ask us to pay for our own fuel or something, but no other regional can deliver the product we deliver for CAL.

 

[ERfly]

No offense to anyone, but I have a feeling CAL is finding out what the lowest bidder gets you. Not to start an "ExpressJet is better than any other airline in the world and is bigger than Jesus," but for the scale that we do things, I think few other carriers can do it better.

 

[nimtz]

How many pilots are on the seniority list at COEX?

What number would an 8 year pilot be on that list?

Thanks. Just wondering where I'll be when you guys buy ASA.

You will be stapled beneath me. I'm a 2000 hire. Don't worry, reserve at EWR is only running at 4 months for FO's.

 

[dojetdriver]

Call me nuts guys, but 2007 doesn't have me shaking in my boots, 2008 could be of concern. CAL's scope limits us at 274 airframes, we are going to recieve 274 airframes. That means for someone to come into the system, CAL would have to give us a 12 month notice to begin pulling down aircraft. After that notice "X" amount of aircraft could come from us, at which point Cal would then assume the lease payments. After that CAL could then begin to allocate those aircraft elsewhere.

However, all of the jets we fly are subleased to XJT. In the terms of the sublease, XJT has the right to keep those aircraft and put them to work somewhere else should the above happen. Given this, I don't see there being much of an advantage in CAL doing that, cost, performance or other. I could and most likely am wrong though!

An excellant point, but remember, in this day and age, EVERYTHING IS SUBJECT TO RENEGOTIATION

 

[dojetdriver]

but for the scale that we do things, I think few other carriers can do it better.

Sometimes it not about who can do it better, but who can do it for cheaper.

 

[ERfly]

One thing in our favor is that CAL is very big about their product. Gordon used to say, "You can make a pizza so cheap, no one will eat it." They are concerned about their image and what the pax think.

 

[captjim]

An excellant point, but remember, in this day and age, EVERYTHING IS SUBJECT TO RENEGOTIATION

Hence my disclamer. "I could and most likely am wrong though!"

 

[densoo]

It's not movement if they are being added behind you. If 300 pilots were to leave we'd see a 10% movement forward.

If you're commuting reserve it counts! More behind you means more junior reserves to push you up to a line.

 

[Nova]

If you're commuting reserve it counts! More behind you means more junior reserves to push you up to a line.

You can not be pushed up into a line, you have to have folks above you leave. What will happen eventually is that staffing numbers will be increased to achieve a better staffing ratio. This won't mean we'll end up with more and more lines. Eventually the lines will stabilze and all those pilots below that line will be on reserve no matter how many pilots we add. All it will mean for those on reserve is that they'll be working less since we'll be properly staffed. If you were here after 9/11 and our flowback/furlough you'll have experienced a properly staffed airline (under some unfortunate circumstances) and the reserve folks weren't being used that much.