Brazil Embraer gets big order from Republic Airways

[MedFlyer]

They may just sell off the CRJ's as the 170's come on line, and eventually close WO down. There is an overseas market for them, as was proven with the recent sale of 9 at FLYi.

You're right (DL may sell some of them), but they'd better do it soon. While the foreign market might still have room, it won't be long before it's saturated with 50 seaters. However, if DL intends to spin-off Comair/ASA, they can't shrink them too heavily. Who wants to buy shares in a company that is being dismantled?

I agree with FDJ2 that ASA will probably get some additional CRJ700's (but no more than 15-20). How many will be used as replacements and how many are growth is anyones guess.

Here's my mathematical guess on the 70 seater distribution:

Comair/ASA 58 (as of Dec 31, 2004)
ASA picks up 17 more CRJ700's

ASA/Comair total of 75 CRJ700's

CHQ (Republic) has 16 on firm order
CHQ converts the 34 options to orders

CHQ has a total of 50 EMB170

This brings the connection carriers right up to the 125 limit set by DALPA. Of course, more may come if mainline grows.

 

[Propsync]

Point to ponder

Quick question for those more intelligent than me: Do you think Boeing was shortsighted killing the 717? I realize you can get an E-190 for less, and have less operating costs, but I would imagine the 717 would last three times as long. Plus, it's a much nicer cabin. What do you all think, big RJ's or small mainline?

 

[Chip]

The 717 might last 3 times as long as the EMB, so lets just say 40 years total. How big of an oil crunch will the world be in 40 years down the road. Im guessing so big that planes other than the 717 will have to be developed anyways. In todays world, and more so the future world, who really cares if an aircraft last a tremendous period of time. Theres only a limited supply of oil and it cant be re-made.

 

[Double Shot]

I think the EMBs are a pile of Sh1t...

 

[lowecur]

Quick question for those more intelligent OK than me: Do you think Boeing was shortsighted killing the 717? No. I realize you can get an E-190 for less, (not much) and have less operating costs,True but I would imagine the 717 would last three times as long. Don't know for sure, it's a totally new airframe. Plus, it's a much nicer cabin. Bigger? - A little, but 2X2 seating is much nicer than 2X3 What do you all think, big RJ's or small mainline? Small Mainline

The 717 is strictly a one dimensional orphaned a/c for short haul. The 190 is a short/medium range with other family members a/c, that can make the turn in ATL to the West Coast. Look for the range to improve by 200-300nm with GE engine improvments in the next 24 months.

 

[Cadillac]

hey double shot

you be sure to let us know as soon as someone calls you to fly something else.

 

[lowecur]

You're right (DL may sell some of them), but they'd better do it soon. While the foreign market might still have room, it won't be long before it's saturated with 50 seaters.

There will always be a market in Eastern Europe and China as they expand their economies. 106 CRJ100/200 are owned by DL. These can be sold at a loss for .50 on a dollar, as that's what they will bring in those markets. Another write off for DL.

 

[FDJ2]

Here's my mathematical guess on the 70 seater distribution:

Comair/ASA 58 (as of Dec 31, 2004)
ASA picks up 17 more CRJ700's

ASA/Comair total of 75 CRJ700's

CHQ (Republic) has 16 on firm order
CHQ converts the 34 options to orders

CHQ has a total of 50 EMB170

This brings the connection carriers right up to the 125 limit set by DALPA. Of course, more may come if mainline grows.

Math in public can be dangerous, but I think you've nailed it. As for the 125 limit, I think that was DAL's number to begin with and in keeping with the current business plan. The additional growth ratio for mainline/DCI is probably intended to meet any additional growth in the next few years if one of our competitors goes "tango uniform". The negotiated ratio for additional RJs would allow DAL to move quickly into the void without having to renegotiate the DAL PWA.

 

[HawkDrvr]

I think the EMBs are a pile of Sh1t...

I agree, but remember that it doesn't matter what you and I think of it. When the passengers are crammed in that 2 by 2 arrangement in the back of the CRJ they think the CRJ is the pile of dung. Being 6'3" tall I can tell you that anyone over 6' tall in a window seat of any CRJ is going to have serious pain after about 40 minutes in the thing. I've been in the back of both and tell you that the EMB-170 kicks the crap out of the CRJ in terms of passenger comfort.

Sorry

 

[HowlinMadMurdoc]

Lowecur,

Midwest has their 717's configured in 2x2 for their Signature Service. Whether or not we make money on those planes is a different story.

HMM