Boyd on DAL/NWA, mostly good news

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[FONT=Tahoma, Ariel, Verdana]Hot Flash [/FONT]-[FONT=Tahoma, Verdana, Lucida] Monday, September 29, 2008[/FONT]
[FONT=Tahoma, Ariel, Lucida]DL/NW Merger Update[/FONT]
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[FONT=Tahoma, Ariel, Lucida]In the media din surrounding the shareholders' approval of the Delta acquisition of Northwest, there's been some amateur supposition that the deal might harm small community air service. Let's talk some facts...[/FONT]
[FONT=Tahoma, Ariel, Lucida]Bottom Line: Not With A Bang, But A Whimper. Boyd Group International has accomplished analyses of the impact of various airline combinations for a number of airports around the nation. Each potential merger scenario produced different shifts in competition, traffic flows, and service levels.[/FONT]
[FONT=Tahoma, Ariel, Lucida]But in regard to a combination of Delta and Northwest, it was almost universally found that there was very little overlap in terms of market share. They've had a code-sharing agreement for the last few years, so a corporate combination does not materially increase competitive threats to other carriers over and above what exists today. It's sort of like a couple who've lived together for a couple years deciding to tie the knot. [/FONT]
[FONT=Tahoma, Ariel, Lucida]Reductions So Far: Inevitable & Not Merger-Driven. Our independent analyses show that no airport will end up with monopoly Delta-only service as a result of this merger. Further, any reductions in capacity and/or service levels - such as the events we've seen and, will likely continue to be seen at CVG, are economic-related, not merger-related. They would be experienced regardless of the merger the skyrocketing costs of RJ operations makes the service levels at CVG difficult to maintain. And those dynamics are industry-wide, not a merger issue. (See below for more details on the RJ cost issue.)[/FONT]
[FONT=Tahoma, Ariel, Lucida]In several cases, it appears that the combination of the two carriers would give some communities the potential of alternative increased capacity through DTW as CVG continued to shrink.[/FONT]
[FONT=Tahoma, Ariel, Lucida]Finally, it is entirely possible that the transaction will eventually result in more access for communities in the Deep South, with expansion of Memphis as a relief-valve for increasingly-congested Atlanta. (Of course, the lightweights in some corners of the consulting business will argue with that conclusion, mainly because "everybody knows" MEM is a hub-goner. Don't bother with any hard analysis. It's in all the newspapers, don't ya know.)[/FONT]
[FONT=Tahoma, Ariel, Lucida]Less, Yes. But Not Much Less. Any airline merger results in less of something - but in this case it's not a whole lot less. One airline system brand choice will be lost, but that's largely been the situation since Delta and NW entered into their code-sharing alliance. (Which, by the way, has been positive for the consumer.) [/FONT]
[FONT=Tahoma, Ariel, Lucida]For small airports in the Dakotas and Upper Midwest, where Northwest is the only game in town, the only changes will mostly be the ticket counter backwalls and airport signage. There are no indications whatsoever that this combination would result in or necessitate any loss of service in those regions. [/FONT]
[FONT=Tahoma, Ariel, Lucida]By the same token, the combination certainly won't be a panacea for small communities that don't have sufficient traffic demand to attract another carrier. But by no means is this merger itself a threat to air service at these smaller airports. [/FONT]
[FONT=Tahoma, Ariel, Lucida]Small Airports: Real Data. Not Fear-Mongering Supposition. Airports:USA DataMiner earlier this year accomplished an analysis of the increase in market shares that the merger will deliver to the new Delta. Of the top 100 non hub-to-hub passenger markets where the two carriers compete, only 14 will see the combined carrier gain more than 2% in market share over what one or the other has today. Click here to take a look.[/FONT]
 

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http://www.aviationplanning.com/asrc1.htm

Also, if you look at the chart below this article, on the cost of the 20 seat RJ's .... gulp!

Makes me think Horizon is smart to be getting bigger into the Dash 8's and parking even the CRJ700's. SkyWest and others have the cash to re-fleet. Why not buy turboprops for flights within 400nm of hubs? The ATR has one third the fuel burn of a 50 seater ... why not?
 

NuGuy

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http://www.aviationplanning.com/asrc1.htm

Also, if you look at the chart below this article, on the cost of the 20 seat RJ's .... gulp!

Makes me think Horizon is smart to be getting bigger into the Dash 8's and parking even the CRJ700's. SkyWest and others have the cash to re-fleet. Why not buy turboprops for flights within 400nm of hubs? The ATR has one third the fuel burn of a 50 seater ... why not?
Heyas Fins,

Maybe it's time to start scoping out t-props for the mainline.

Heck, a Convair only had 44 seats, and NW was running them as late as 1987.

Nu
 
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