bobbysamd

[BRA]

bobbysamd
I always like reading your posts. Contrasting the industry then and now. I didn't start in the industry till 1998. So anything prior to that i have to read about. It does seem that hiring is still better now, compared to then. I heard back in 1990, allegheny airlines had a 7 year upgrade time to captain. I was wondering about your thoughts on when the majors may hire again. Then compared to now. There are several threads that list retirement #s for the majors over the next decade. Seems like the retirement #'s are far greater then the #'s of those currently furloughed to me. I know their is more growth in regionals, and more shrikage in the majors, but either way the 737's and A320's still exist and people are retiring. In the early 1990's people must have thought a job at a major someday was just as impossible or more so as they do now. Could you talk about what people's opinions on that kind of thing were back then?

 

[bobbysamd]

Only a .02 opinion, but here goes...

First off, thanks for your extremely kind comments about my ramblings.

I recall back in the early nineties that there was a lot of pessimism. Especially among the well-qualified and experienced who lost their jobs from Eastern, etc. and couldn't find aviation work. I don't really remember if folks thought jobs at the majors were impossible, though, but people seemed glum.

I dunno. I think times are worse now than back in the early nineties. Times are comparable because of a war and recession. I remember how Saddam invaded Kuwait the day before my interview with WestAir/United Express. How, the next day, there was so much buzz among interviewees about hiring stopping. Also, Eastern and Pan Am shutdowns putting tons of qualified pilots on the street, and available.

It seems, to me, anyway, that now there are far more qualified pilots available. Furloughees, primarily, ready to be recalled. Tons of qualified commuter airline (regional) pilots ready for the majors. Flight instructors, freight pilots and 135 pilots ready to take their places. New school graduates ready to take their places. Et cetera.

Now, let's say, by a wave of the hand, the economy improved, suddenly, tomorrow. Well, it will take a while for the majors to sop up its furloughees. Not all may be recalled immediately. Not all may be recalled (I don't remember how long a furloughee has recall rights). So, it may take a while before others can get their chances. Of course, hiring at the majors drives hiring at lower levels. Also, of course, the economy won't improve suddenly, tomorrow - although I heard some stock analyst on NPR state that he thought the BEAR (thanks, Falcon Capt. - I did mean bear ) market was ending and 2003 would be a good stock market year.

I think the thing to remember is that times always get better. Currently, the question is when? Who knows when? I don't. Maybe one other point to consider is the airline structure has changed so much, with regionals doing a lot of majors flying.

Those are a few of my .02 thoughts.

We used to have a poster by the screenname of TIS. He went through similar times and offered some great insight. Maybe he'll read this and add to my comments.

Thanks again for asking.

PS-Falcon Capt, JetPilot500 and I discussed this very issue at our dinner five weeks ago. That one should choose his/her regional airline carefully because one might have to stay there several years with slow upgrades. Something like how the majors have been. In other words, for sub-1000 hour pilots who are so fortunate as to get RJs at hire, go easy on the bragging to your buds because you might be occupying that right seat for several years!

Let me repeat a book that I often recommend. Takeoff! by Bonnie Tiburzi, ISBN 0-517-55263-9. Capt. Tiburzi addresses this issue in part. She writes how she was hired, then was furloughed for more than two years, was recalled but as an FO because of seniority, and later was RIFed down to FE.

Thanks again for catching my typo, Falcon Capt.

 

[banned username 2]

Re: Only a .02 opinion, but here goes...

although I heard some stock analyst on NPR state that he thought the bull market was ending and 1993 would be a good stock market year.

Oh Boy, I HOPE you meant the BEAR market was ending and 2003 would be a better stock market year... Cuz if this has been a bull market the last 2 years, my 401k is in SERIOUS trouble if the bear is still yet to come!

 

[Publishers]

Bobby

Bobby has always offered much wisdom and I think we agree that the times now may not be paralleled in history as far as the industry goes. Yes there will be a cycles as before but they are of a different nature.

What is an airline has been redefined and will continue to be. By proportion, airline pilots may never make what they did before relative to the rest of the world.

The mystery of air travel is no longer a mystery, just a routine transmission of people throught the steel tube to somewhere else. The romance has been waning for many years now.

This time the war, the whatever jsut exacerbated the obvious. We were going through a fundamental change.

 

[Timebuilder]

Yes, when really is the question. I agree that this will likely go on longer than previous negative cycles in aviation, for the obvious reason that this situation has so many new variables.

TIS hasn't been seen around here for a while. He wrote a book on interviewing, which is a little ironic, considering how few interviews are being conducted these days.

I recall an old REO Speedwagon tune. We're "....ridin' the storm out".