Bloomberg on AF447

[Microclimates]

1. Regarding how much experience does it take: there is this book by Gladwell (the guy who wrote freakonomics) that at some point asked the same question, in general: how much experience an expert makes. He came up with a number: 10k hours. Of course his books are screwy and engender a love it or hate it reaction. but interestingly he 'found' (if you believe him) that this number was consistent whether you looked at successful athletes or dancers or musicians (didn't talk about pilots): the ones that 'made' it typically had crossed that threshold of hours practiced... Who knows. 10k flight hours is not a huge amount, but from the little I've seen seems to differentiate a well-shaped career from anything else.

2. regarding the UA DC10 sioux city event... I remember reading the CVR. At one stage the tower says: "clear to land on any runway" and one of the pilots answers: "so now you're getting picky and want us on a runway?" talk about a sense of humor! what a crew

 

[densoo]

Giant line of embedded thundestorms. Heavy aircraft. Night. IMC. Over a dark ocean. Unreliable or inoperative flight instruments cause by severe/extreme icing and turbulence. I'm sorry what are we debating again?

Why a pilot would point the nose 15 degrees up at 35k' when they're already at their max cruise is going to be the debate.

 

[humveedriver]

Why a pilot would point the nose 15 degrees up at 35k' when they're already at their max cruise is going to be the debate.

02:11Z:
Failure of all three ADIRUs
Failure of gyros of ISIS (attitude information lost)

02:12Z:
ADIRUs Air Data disagree

02:13Z:
Flight Management, Guidance and Envelope Computer fault
PRIM 1 fault
SEC 1 fault
02:14Z:
Cabin Pressure Controller fault (cabin vertical speed)


Looks like things went from bad to worse in 3 minutes. What reliable pitch information did the PF have? I dunno looking at those messages. Lost the ISIS? I mean dang, you're having a REALLY bad night here.

 

[jonjuan]

02:11Z:
Failure of all three ADIRUs
Failure of gyros of ISIS (attitude information lost)

02:12Z:
ADIRUs Air Data disagree

02:13Z:
Flight Management, Guidance and Envelope Computer fault
PRIM 1 fault
SEC 1 fault
02:14Z:
Cabin Pressure Controller fault (cabin vertical speed)


Looks like things went from bad to worse in 3 minutes. What reliable pitch information did the PF have? I dunno looking at those messages. Lost the ISIS? I mean dang, you're having a REALLY bad night here.

They replicated all these faults in the sim during the PBS Nova episode, had pitch and power info and were able to keep flying.

 

[densoo]

02:11Z:
Failure of all three ADIRUs
Failure of gyros of ISIS (attitude information lost)

02:12Z:
ADIRUs Air Data disagree

02:13Z:
Flight Management, Guidance and Envelope Computer fault
PRIM 1 fault
SEC 1 fault
02:14Z:
Cabin Pressure Controller fault (cabin vertical speed)


Looks like things went from bad to worse in 3 minutes. What reliable pitch information did the PF have? I dunno looking at those messages. Lost the ISIS? I mean dang, you're having a REALLY bad night here.

Yea, pitching the nose up may have been due to no/unreliable ADI. They may be able to tell from the CVR and data side-by-side. I think this will be where the discussion is for awhile.

 

[...Lost]

Hadn't seen this report posted anywhere, and it includes CVR and FDR data.


http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sour...I7e5AxE0Q&sig2=wSutV4Y2EfwuUS7NuWfing&cad=rja

 

[SERPICO]

How little time makes you safe? Yes, you're never immune. I guess if they develped a test to determine that a 250-hour pilot will never have an accident then all would be well. I've heard stories of incidents/accidents on retirement flights or those very near retirement. But I don't think the Sioux City accident would have had the same outcome without the immense experience on that flight deck.

I get it. Whats the point to the original post?
I can't compare these accidents though, Souix City, Qantas in Singapore, both heavily crewed by coincidence.
11K for an FO is common here becuase we have been in an industry meltdown for an enternity. That could change on a dime.
If they do develop that test, we will all fail.

 

[cunchos]

So they were on alt law? Direct law would not let this happen....

 

[Stukadriver]

Giant line of embedded thundestorms. Heavy aircraft. Night. IMC. Over a dark ocean. Unreliable or inoperative flight instruments cause by severe/extreme icing and turbulence. I'm sorry what are we debating again?

Exactly. They made it look too easy in the sim on the Nova episode. A bouncy ride and a colorful blob on your ND just can't replicate the feeling of flying into a 55,000 foot tall thunderstorm. For added realism, you need a second instructor. On one hand he wears a boxing glove and uses it to punch the pilot in the jimmy until his family jewels are up in his throat. With the other, he holds a loaded gun to the pilot's head.

 

[mrnolmts]

WOW! the only one drawing conclusions would be you sir...

Really?

we need to teach "pitch+power+configuration=performance"

As a professional pilot you should be able to fly your aircraft without airspeed. This was taught to me in basic training.