Bad time to make a move?

[PGTB]

Opinions wanted....Would you leave a "stable" regional living in base to go to a major right now? Will merger mania leave people on the street?

 

[Buzo]

I am in the process of doing it right now. I think the regionals will be a very scary place to be real soon.

 

[TV9Driver]

The regionals will be a very scary place to be, and so will the bottom of a major's seniority list. The good thing about being at the major is that you can get recalled to the major. If you stay at the regional and things go south, your options are more limited..

Good luck!

 

[SoCentralRain]

Opinions wanted....Would you leave a "stable" regional living in base to go to a major right now? Will merger mania leave people on the street?

Maybe. IMO, since 9/11 there is no stability in the industry any longer. Yeah, SWA, FDX, UPS probably will be fine in the long run. But other than that, at all other carriers, all bets are off.

I wonder just how "stable" a regional--any regional--is today. None of them have their own successful identity. They all are " Express" this or "Connection" that. The fortunes ebb and flow with what their "mothership" is going through.

Sometimes you gotta just leap, though. If you're truly risk averse, just stay where you are, burn some incense, breathe deeply and make peace with your decision. No one will fault you.

Good luck.

SCR

 

[TWA Dude]

Opinions wanted....Would you leave a "stable" regional living in base to go to a major right now?

YES!!! I left Chautauqua for TWA in 1999 and I don't regret that move for one second. When an offer for a better job comes along you take it.

Will merger mania leave people on the street?

Maybe. But you have no idea where or when so you'll just drive yourself crazy trying to predict what's going to happen. To a large extent your career is dumb luck. Do what feels right and hope for the best.

 

[upndsky]

The risk of going to major today is short term. But long term, the risk is staying at a regional, no matter how "stable" it is. Just ask the ACA guys 10 years ago.

People seem to think that all this merger mania is not going to affect the regionals. Think again. I'd rather have a number a major, even with the risk of furlough, than having to look over my shoulder for the rest of my career wondering where my flying is going to come from.

 

[Dumb Pilot]

Hypothetical's are worthless as a gage for decision making, it is easy to say "I'll just stay at my regional because it is more stable" when you don't have an offer in front of you. The true measure of your choice between a regional and a major is to get the job offer from a major in front of you. My suggestion is this, apply then go thru the interview process and if you get in the pool which will take a few months from being in the pool and starting training, then you can use that time to truly ponder your decision. Lets see if you will say, "I'll just stay at this regional flying a CRJ for the rest of my career since it is more stable"

 

[Chairman]

Guess it depends if you are a single guy or someone who is the head of house hold income wise. I doubt I would have done it if there was a wife in kids at home.

 

[Long-Gonner]

Guess it depends if you are a single guy or someone who is the head of house hold income wise. I doubt I would have done it if there was a wife in kids at home.

I think 15 out of 20 people in my new hire class at UAL were married, and some even had a 2nd or 3rd kid on the way. Its about long term planning.

 

[241BlujucCktl]

It's risky either way. If merger mania happens, managment will use the opportunity to downsize domestic ops for higher revenue international routes. Could be real good for for regionals covering the reduced domestic flying. If you go to the majors you will probably be on the street shortly. On the other hand, if you stay at the regional, you will be doomed to life of understaffed, unsupported, management harassed, over worked, underpaid, baby sitting those 400 hr wonder pilots who think they know everything about aviation because they paid Perdue 120K for a piece of paper saying as much, disgruntled aviator. The real smart decision if you are young enough, is to back to school get your MBA become a CEO. That way you can leaglly steal from your employees and company.

 

[saabservant]

Truer words rarely said, 241...

The apparent security of staying put is but an illusion. What happens when the major you work for re-evaluates it's fleet, or it's feeder airlines?
All we are at the regionals are c-scale groups of pilots on multiple seniority lists, to reduce over-exposure to labor unrest and enhance whip-sawing.
Your future is in the hands of mainline MEC's, and management types.

That worries me more than the prospect of furlough at a major.....
It's a crapshoot...do what you really want to do!

 

[EMB170Pilot]

Majors reduced domestic flying by giving more to regionals.

IE Republic b/c of their E170s and SkyWest b/c of their CRJ700/900

Majors expand on intl flying.

Let's see how far off I am.

I'm worried to leave and I live in base too at..well, take a guess who I work for.

We'll see if we get more and more 170 flying in the future. (I believe we will)

 

[flyguy81]

i'm bailing as soon as possible and i'm in the upper 1/3 of the seniority list.

 

[LJDRVR]

YES!!! I left Chautauqua for TWA in 1999 and I don't regret that move for one second. When an offer for a better job comes along you take it.Maybe. But you have no idea where or when so you'll just drive yourself crazy trying to predict what's going to happen. To a large extent your career is dumb luck. Do what feels right and hope for the best.

Read twice! Best post on this subject I've read in a while. Go to work for the first major airline that hires you.

 

[SoCentralRain]

Read twice! Best post on this subject I've read in a while. Go to work for the first major airline that hires you.

That's what I did. Was all ready to go to TWA in 1998 after round 1. Didn't know Round 2 was 3 months away. America West hired me/trained me before the 2nd interview at TWA.

Ya takes what ya gets.

Just do what makes you happy. Still can't decide? Follow your dreams. By the way, the only "RJ" that existed back when I was a little boy was the VFW 614. Cool plane, but not what I envisioned flying. Something to think about.

Cheers,

SCR

 

[PGTB]

I just dont feel like there is as much upside to the majors anymore. If you dont like INTL that leaves domestic. And thats what alot of the regionals are doing anyways.
There really isnt much difference in what a 737 pilot does for USAir and a E175 Pilot does for RAH, I know the pay is different, but does the risk payoff with a reward?

I think alot of folks who are in the "go to the 1st major" side, have a misconception of regionals and still think commuters when you were sluggin it out with no APU/FA/Jetway etc....Now days you use the same jetways fly similar route (for better or for worse) etc....SEems like ITNL is the only plus.
Anyone else?

 

[Junkflyer]

Its risky either way. What will you be making 10 years from now if you stay, or end up at a major? Or you can think about in terms of qol. Do what is best for you.

 

[Jetjockey]

Just take a look at the life cycles for a regional. 10 years ago the top regionals:
Comair
Air Wisconsin
Mesaba

Your airline is only as good as the last agreement with the major partner. No agreement, no jobs. Look at the whipsawing going on now.The economics of the 50 seat jet are terrible. Just about every growing regional is getting away from them. Most regionals are bumping up to scope restrictions, so the 70 seat jet is going to be the largest equipment/payscale.

I don't see how any pilot can sit back and think they could be possibly isolated if/when mergers occur. I'd bet there will be plenty of CRJs, and ERJ too keep those DC9s, and older 737s company in the desert sun. Look at a Delta/NW merger. The RJ overlap is huge. A CO/UAL feeder route map looks just as bad.

Another reality of regional airlines. Post September 11th every airline cut their fleets. RJs were used as 'place holders'. Substitute an a 737 with 2 RJ flights was the flavor of the day. The rapid growth of RJs was huge from 2001-2005. Scope was given up in many cases under bankruptcy. The tide has shifted. The managements want the mainline pilots on board with the mergers now. It's very possible to see some scope increases, not decreased. If CAL/UAL comes to fruition, the 50 seat scope clause may come with it. Just something else to think about.

I in no way meant this to 'bash' a pilot because he/she works for a regional airline. I spent 10 years at one of the better commuter, that grew into a regional airline of the day.

Good luck with your decision.

JJ

 

[~~~^~~~]

PGTB:

It depends on many factors. Do you live in base?

Most do not see furloughs coming with DAL/NWA - looks like some growth.

There will be some culling of the herd in the small jet operators. 11 DCI/NW Airlink carriers is probably more than there will be 5 years from now.

For the NWA new hires who might have just dodged the DC-9 reductions and stepped in to pay raises and QOL improvements it was a GREAT time to make the move.