StaySeated
IBT does not represent ME
- Joined
- Nov 27, 2001
- Posts
- 782
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StaySeated said:Boyd is to aviation what armstrong williams is to education. Embraer is one of his biggest clients, therefore, he has been ripping on 50 seaters for years and starting the "e-jet" circle jerk every chance he gets.
FDJ2 said:Is he right? Yep. Was he right 15 years ago when he predicted explosive growth for the CRJ? Yep.
Mugs said:A rather easy prediction 15 years ago. Did anyone really think that consumers wouldn't demand a small jet to replace turboprops on most routes? One ride in a J-31 in August or January did that instantly.
You're correct, and it is an equally easy prediction today thatcustomers will prefer the E class over the CRJ tube and networkcarriers know it. Emb is gearing up for production of this class whileCanadair is laying off. There is a glut in the CRJ market.
Small Jet Providers ("Regional Airlines") - The Growth Is Over
At the Conference in 2003, we werethe first to outline that there was an emerging glut of both "regional"jets and the small jet providers who were operating them for majorcarriers. That trend was proven accurate in 2004 by the transformationof ACA from being a United Express carrier into an independent operatorof 50-seat jets. In a period of a few weeks, this yanked over sevendozen (87) CRJs out from under United Airlines. The result: Unitedreplaced the lift they needed without any problem. In the past twoweeks, this has again been underscored by the cancellation of ordersfor 18 ERJ-145s at American Eagle, plus the slowing of the Bombardierproduction of RJs to just over one unit per week.
The expense of operation of these 50-seaters (and to a lesser degreethe Canadair 70-seaters) is heading northward - labor, maintenance, andfuel costs are going in the wrong direction. Considerconsistently-declining yields, and we again project that by the end ofthe decade, there will be somewhere around 200 CRJs and ERJs in thedesert, with an aftermarket demand roughly akin to a litter of straykittens.
Prediction: Small Jet Providers ("Regional" airlines) will see a shake-out starting later in 2006. There is little or no potential for any more existing SJPs to break away and become independent airlines.The Independence Air experiment, even if successful, is a one-off.Washington, DC isn't Salt Lake City. Nor is it Indianapolis, orPhoenix, or Los Angeles. The bottom line: 50-seat RJs (and thelarger Bombardier CRJs) increasingly don't have the cost or revenuemoxie to compete independently. Indeed, the ability to do so within amega-carrier system is getting tough as well.-Boyd
Does any one still believe there is a huge demand for more CRJs? Doesanyone really doubt that the next growth segment will be in the bigger,roomier, more comfotable and economic E class or smaller Airbus andBoeing aircraft?
FDJ2 said:Boyd Group:
Boeing - Airbus Dogfight. .... (By the way, the 170/190 is not a regional jet, as many lightweights in the media describe it.
FDJ2 said:Boyd Group:
Boeing - Airbus Dogfight.
Airbus is building the A-380 WhaleJet - a 550-seat replacement for the 747. Let's be blunt. The 7E7 is based on hard futurist fleet projections. The A-380 is a political airplane - the Europeans want a monument to show off to the world, one that shows their industrial prowess is better than that of the US.
And that perfectly describes the Concorde program of the 1960s. The WhaleJet may be no different.
Fourth, their industrial prowess IS better than that of the US.
Guitar Guy said:Thanks for the info, FDJ2. By the way, Boyd's 2004 pop quiz is pretty interesting. The question about labor cost as a percentage of total cost is very interesting - I guessed Southwest on a lark and was surprised that it was the correct answer.