Astar Pilots vs. The Dazz

[Whistlin' Dan]

What would the Dazz gain by locking out the Astar pilot group? Would that not be bad for everyone......DHL included?

At first glance, one might think so. But I can't help but wonder if DHL Int'l isn't pulling some strings from the sidelines in this matter?

Dumping Astar lock, stock and barrel would certainly send the message out to any present and future subcontractors that insurrection or any expectation of "industry standard" wages will not be tolerated by the parent corporation. By "subcontractors" I'm also referring to the many thousands of delivery drivers who are presently working for less than half of what their counterparts at UPS/FedEx are making, and who are in the beginning stages of attempting to change that. It would certainly change the tenor of the upcoming ABX negotiations.

It's possible they (DHL) are trying to provoke a strike, so that they can claim default by Astar on the contract. That would, in effect, force the dissolution of Astar. DHL then writes a Dasburg and his investors a check for their "damages," The Daz retires early, and the others move on to other opportunities. Meanwhile, DHL enjoys labor rates for years to come that are half of what their competitors are paying.

Some companies use pay, benefits, and stability to motivate their employees. Others use quality-of-life and growth. DHL (and of late, Astar) use terror, stagnation, and uncertainty. It's a mentality that's worked well in motivating their pilot group, as evidenced by their on-time performance.

At some point, even the dumbest of donkeys finally says, "Either I get a bite of that carrot, or this cart don't go." Any comments on the rumor that there's a LOT of intestinal flu going around the hub these days?

 

[gearjockey]

Of course, this is based on the mediator's assesment of the parties motives. Both sides may be indicating to the mediator they want a strike, the union to show management their resolve, and mangement to show it's resolve. The mediator would now be calling the bluff(s). If the parties are not bluffing a strike will occur. If one or both parties actually want a strike then one is inevitable; merely a matter of time.
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Now this is the kind of detailed analysis everyone needs to read. You must have been involved with negotiations sometime during your career. I'm curious about the above statement specifically regarding assessment of parties' motives. Is the mediation board privy to the Dassberg letter indicating his intention to procede to endgame? If so, how would that influence their strategy concerning negotiations?

 

[AV8OR]

"Any comments on the rumor that there's a LOT of intestinal flu going around the hub these days?"

True. Couple of probable causes....A. It's flu season. B. Frank, our illustrious cafeteria cook was throwing up sick and serving up food in the same night. Nice. No job action here.

 

[AV8OR]

Now this is the kind of detailed analysis everyone needs to read. You must have been involved with negotiations sometime during your career. I'm curious about the above statement specifically regarding assessment of parties' motives. Is the mediation board privy to the Dassberg letter indicating his intention to procede to endgame? If so, how would that influence their strategy concerning negotiations?

The mediator will be made privy to said letter at the next meeting on the 8th.

 

[Meat n the Seat]

At first glance, one might think so. But I can't help but wonder if DHL Int'l isn't pulling some strings from the sidelines in this matter?

It's possible they (DHL) are trying to provoke a strike, so that they can claim default by Astar on the contract. That would, in effect, force the dissolution of Astar. DHL then writes a Dasburg and his investors a check for their "damages," The Daz retires early, and the others move on to other opportunities. Meanwhile, DHL enjoys labor rates for years to come that are half of what their competitors are paying.

What do you envision Dan? Maybe ASTAR gone and the immediate creation of a low cost replacement airline run by DHL under the cloak of Dasburgs imaginary ownership? Similar to what is happening now with ASTAR only at reduced rates? Or just making ASTAR go away with no replacement? Wouldn't the latter senario leave ABX free to break it off in DHL? Or do you think the dissolution of ASTAR would scare the ABX pilots into compliance?

 

[erichartmann]

Now this is the kind of detailed analysis everyone needs to read. You must have been involved with negotiations sometime during your career. I'm curious about the above statement specifically regarding assessment of parties' motives. Is the mediation board privy to the Dassberg letter indicating his intention to procede to endgame? If so, how would that influence their strategy concerning negotiations?

I would think anyone who is a member of a RLA bargaining unit (union) and who has paid attention to the general conduct of negotiations could draw the logical conclusions I have drawn.

I have no way of knowing if the NMB is privey to Dassburg's letter. I am not involved in either the Astar or ABX negotiations. If the letter actually exists, and was widely distributed to the Astar pilot group I would suspect someone has more than likely sent a copy to the NMB. If the letter was sent only to the Astar MEC/negotiations committeed it would depend on what their stategy is and whether or not they think letting the NMB know is to their advantage.

 

[erichartmann]

At first glance, one might think so. But I can't help but wonder if DHL Int'l isn't pulling some strings from the sidelines in this matter?

It's possible they (DHL) are trying to provoke a strike, so that they can claim default by Astar on the contract. That would, in effect, force the dissolution of Astar. DHL then writes a Dasburg and his investors a check for their "damages," The Daz retires early, and the others move on to other opportunities. Meanwhile, DHL enjoys labor rates for years to come that are half of what their competitors are paying.

What do you envision Dan? Maybe ASTAR gone and the immediate creation of a low cost replacement airline run by DHL under the cloak of Dasburgs imaginary ownership? Similar to what is happening now with ASTAR only at reduced rates? Or just making ASTAR go away with no replacement? Wouldn't the latter senario leave ABX free to break it off in DHL? Or do you think the dissolution of ASTAR would scare the ABX pilots into compliance?

The reality is that if either Astar or ABX were to strike they would be "breaking it off in DHL" as you so quaintly put it. At this point neither carrier can operate the whole system. OTOH DHL is now paying for the infastructure to run two carriers where only one is needed. I've heard estimates of anywhere from $40 to $80 million for that infastructure. Get rid of one carrier and you get to save that money.

On another note I haven't seen anything about Purple or Brown objecting to DHL's purchasing the max legal amount of Polar yet. I can think of several senerios to go with the current situation. None of them are particularly good for Astar. Some of them aren't good for ABX either. In the end I think DHL plans to wind up with one carrier, at least in the US domestic market, maybe worldwide. They have only to look to Purple and Brown to see the advantages. It simply doesn't make good economic sense to pay for two or more management groups where you only need one.

 

[Meat n the Seat]

"On another note I haven't seen anything about Purple or Brown objecting to DHL's purchasing the max legal amount of Polar yet. I can think of several senerios to go with the current situation. None of them are particularly good for Astar. Some of them aren't good for ABX either"

Maybe if you remain silent in the background, behaving yourself long enough, DHL will rid themselves of the overpaid and underproductive ASTAR pilots. Then these unwelcome invaders to ILN will be gone, all it will all be yours!!!! Muwaahaaahaahaa!

If we as separate pilot groups, represented by separate unions fail to pull our collective heads out and join forces, then we all will lose.

 

[GoABX]

Surely, everyone has heard the conjecture that Daz bought the the 72's so he would have an asset to sell for the asset sale to Hete. Only the needed qualified crews go with the planes and get stapled to the ABX list. Now Hete can run the system and DHL saves a lot of money.

But before the ABX guys do back flips here is another scenario.

Astar 72s and ABX 76s are bought by Atlas/Polar and the remainder of both airlines is $hitcanned. Sounds crazy until you see that AAWW has 2.5 times the market cap of ABXA. Toss in a little creative Astar-style financing from Boeing and the deal is easily done. So now only soft dollars change hands and Boeing will get to find the replacement for the 72 and 9. Plus if the foreign ownership laws change, DP only has to buy one neat little package at a predetermined price. Pretty cool huh?! Daz, Hete, AAWW and Boeing make money, DHL saves money, and DP instantly creates an integrated package at a discounted price. Only problem is 1/2 the ABX and Astar pilots would be screwed until the new kid grows into his shoes.

On a different note, at some point in our future management will test whether the two pilot groups will support each other. To do otherwise would be foolish...they have to at least try. If we fail the test, either one carrier is gone or we degrade to the eternal throat slitting you see at Polar/Atlas. My guess is if their true intent was to pull an Emery on Astar and close you down, they were incredibly stupid to tell you the plan rather than spring it on you at the last second. So odds are it is a negotiation tactic rather than a long term strategy.

Tactically it would be best for DHL to make any major moves after both airlies have contracts signed, during the 5 year quiet period. Neither side can presently move all the freight, so they shouldn't try any major screw jobs if one of the two teams are in negotiations and can maneuver to an impasse.

 

[Whistlin' Dan]

What do you envision Dan? Maybe ASTAR gone and the immediate creation of a low cost replacement airline run by DHL under the cloak of Dasburgs imaginary ownership? Or just making ASTAR go away with no replacement? Wouldn't the latter senario leave ABX free to break it off in DHL? Or do you think the dissolution of ASTAR would scare the ABX pilots into compliance?

Maybe a little of all of the above? I doubt that ABX would "break it off" in DHL, as by doing so, they would be breaking it off in themselves as well, at least in the long term. Simply having nice, shiny 767's on your ramp does not a viable airline make. Those airplanes have to be working, and DHL is under no obligation to fill them.

What happens when an airline has 50 airplanes, but only enough work to fill 5 of them? That's right, they sell them. It's not inconceivable that those new 767's that are so proudly hailed by ABX pilots as being "proof" that they're going to be around for a while might be transferred to other carriers. The big yellow airplanes will indeed be around, but not the jobs of flying them.

Trying to predict how this whole thing will turn out is impossible, given the numbers of competing and conflicting interests involved. The bottom line is that DHL's model for employee relations is NOT UPS or FedEx, it's Wal-Mart. And as long as their airplanes are moving on time, there's no incentive for them to address it in any other way. The union is adamant that there will be no officially sanctioned job action, no declared "war" with management, which is also as it should be. That's why I found it interesting that there were so many sick calls recently. Guerilla tactics can be very effective when fighting a much larger, well-equipped and well-entrenched opponent.

Maybe all this "intestinal distress" suffered by crewmembers recently has less to do with what's being served in the cafeteria and more to do with the bull$hit that's being served up by management.