AS Record Profit...and reasons why...

[igneousy2]

From two pretty reliable sources, Alaska is exercising its options to buy on 25 737-800's. That coupled with the 7 or so -400 they want to get rid of means a net gain of approximately 18 aircraft over the next couple of years. Also, they want all of the furloughs back yesterday, but are trying for a timeline of June '11 with hiring through the summer and fall. I truly hope this rumor pans out. With all the action in the training dept. lately, it seems as if it might be.

CP.

Don't mean to be Captain bringdown...but wouldn't this be out of "character" for management. If we did place a large order for aircraft, wouldn't it make more sense to simply continue there MO of "growth" by replacing smaller aircraft with larger aircraft. I don't believe we will see a significant increase in airframes until we are flying all 800s/900s plus the freighters/combis. I also think that Horizon will take over SE with a daily freighter for cargo.


As far as everybody back by summer. We are Bringing back 36 by April. That would leave about 60 to bring back in 2 months which is 25-30 month which is more than we were able to train during the peak of hiring. Not to mention any loa/mil guys coming back.

Anyway, I hope I am wrong but these are the rumors that make the most sense to me.

 

[Baze]

I think simulator time is what's really holding up training. The company could always get some sim time from someone else, say Flight Safety, etc.

As for our own schoolhouse, the MD sim is gone. I haven't been there since January, but I heard the CRJ sim was gone too. Once those bays are occupied with -800 sims, the training department will be able to train a lot more pilots.

Any word on when we'll be getting new sims? Apparently, one of them will be an ETOPS sim!

Also, at what point are our recalled pilots going to have to go through the full training curriculum? I'm guessing it might start with the group coming back February/March?!

 

[Dash8don]

I think simulator time is what's really holding up training. The company could always get some sim time from someone else, say Flight Safety, etc.

As for our own schoolhouse, the MD sim is gone. I haven't been there since January, but I heard the CRJ sim was gone too. Once those bays are occupied with -800 sims, the training department will be able to train a lot more pilots.

Any word on when we'll be getting new sims? Apparently, one of them will be an ETOPS sim!

Also, at what point are our recalled pilots going to have to go through the full training curriculum? I'm guessing it might start with the group coming back February/March?!

Rumor from some Boeing guys is that we have reserved "dry" sim time from Boeing. As for the CRJ sim, it is gone. Just some yellow paint and bolts in the sim bay where it used to be. I don't know about the new sim. Haven't heard anything. The recalled pilots that are from the March furlough will have to have a full training cycle. The group right now is in the 7-12 month window since qualification and can do a "glorified recurrent".

 

[Baze]

Thanks for the info, D8D.

 

[Chief Pilot]

Don't mean to be Captain bringdown...but wouldn't this be out of "character" for management. If we did place a large order for aircraft, wouldn't it make more sense to simply continue there MO of "growth" by replacing smaller aircraft with larger aircraft. I don't believe we will see a significant increase in airframes until we are flying all 800s/900s plus the freighters/combis. I also think that Horizon will take over SE with a daily freighter for cargo.


As far as everybody back by summer. We are Bringing back 36 by April. That would leave about 60 to bring back in 2 months which is 25-30 month which is more than we were able to train during the peak of hiring. Not to mention any loa/mil guys coming back.

Anyway, I hope I am wrong but these are the rumors that make the most sense to me.

I agree that the June timeline is pretty ambitious, although the training department is attempting to ramp up significantly. Under the status quo it would be impossible which is why the changes are being made. I have my doubts as to whether we could have everyone back by June, but at least we're finally moving in the right direction and it's simply what I was told.

As far as converting the options to firm orders for 25 jets being out of character for management--I think it could be argued that Chicago was out of character, as was the East Coast. Hawaii was definately out of character. Sometimes management does things that are "out of character" and it pays off big time. With all of our success in Hawaii, I don't see this as unbelievable. Just my opinion of course..

CP.

 

[RNP.15]

Grow or die. SWA is considering Hawaii service with 800's. Maybe if we want to keep the Islands, buying Hawaiian isn't a bad idea.

 

[jonjuan]

Grow or die. SWA is considering Hawaii service with 800's. Maybe if we want to keep the Islands, buying Hawaiian isn't a bad idea.

No kidding-HAL would make a pretty good fit for DAL next year.

 

[igneousy2]

I was reading the last hanger notes from TK and I was wondering what you all thought TK ment by...

"As a point of interest, training desires an eighteen month lead time to optimize their resources."​

am I imagining something there that really isn't? So...something big is happening at the end of 2011/2012 that we need greater training capacity...that requires all these new check-airmen? ​

 

[igneousy2]

Wow...tomorrows ARC in ANC is negative...this should be interesting.

 

[Baze]

They need to give up and call it IRC (Inadequate Reserve Coverage).
I'll probably get a JA call tomorrow. Fortunately, I got a cold and am in no shape to fly... other than the fact that I'm in Seattle.

 

[Old School 737]

There is gonna be a lot of premium time this weekend. They are already short and with the sick calls it should be interesting.

 

[Mookie]

Rumor from some Boeing guys is that we have reserved "dry" sim time from Boeing. As for the CRJ sim, it is gone. Just some yellow paint and bolts in the sim bay where it used to be. I don't know about the new sim. Haven't heard anything. The recalled pilots that are from the March furlough will have to have a full training cycle. The group right now is in the 7-12 month window since qualification and can do a "glorified recurrent".

I asked Bennie Johnson this question directly at the last FO summit and he said that they do have sim time reserved from Boeing, but that he (mgmnt) is trying to work out some sort of instructor deal to make it Kosher...

all good news to me...

Mookie

 

[flythere]

I was reading the last hanger notes from TK and I was wondering what you all thought TK ment by...

"As a point of interest, training desires an eighteen month lead time to optimize their resources."​

am I imagining something there that really isn't? So...something big is happening at the end of 2011/2012 that we need greater training capacity...that requires all these new check-airmen? ​

Ya, something big will happen, all those old geezers will finally be forced out the door! Be it in their wheelchair or on their walker or maybe their Little Rascle, they'll be forced to walk the plank carrying their colostomy bags!!

I think they are looking at Dec 16th 2012, when the retirements will start up again! Maybe they have something else up their stiff sleeves!!

 

[dogg]

I agree that the June timeline is pretty ambitious, although the training department is attempting to ramp up significantly. Under the status quo it would be impossible which is why the changes are being made. I have my doubts as to whether we could have everyone back by June, but at least we're finally moving in the right direction and it's simply what I was told.

As far as converting the options to firm orders for 25 jets being out of character for management--I think it could be argued that Chicago was out of character, as was the East Coast. Hawaii was definately out of character. Sometimes management does things that are "out of character" and it pays off big time. With all of our success in Hawaii, I don't see this as unbelievable. Just my opinion of course..

CP.

If I had a dime every time some "senior captain" or a friend "in management" babbled about "firm aircraft orders" or " training is the hold up", I would actually have made money in aviation...a lot of mental masturbation for a marginal job at a marginal company.......restrain your self

 

[charlieB]

I was reading the last hanger notes from TK and I was wondering what you all thought TK ment by...

"As a point of interest, training desires an eighteen month lead time to optimize their resources."​

am I imagining something there that really isn't? So...something big is happening at the end of 2011/2012 that we need greater training capacity...that requires all these new check-airmen? ​

I don't think it's a prediction, it's a...point of interest. Earlier in the para. he mentioned "accelerated growth" and "saturated resources." Training desires to start preparing for increased training demands 18 mos. in advance to prevent becoming a bottleneck. Pretty optimistic in this industry, but IMHO Kemp is saying training is doing their best with considerably less than 18 mos. warning.