any news on ACA with UAL's deal?

[Azul]

Ual and Uax

I rarely ever respond to posts here but the past post by Marko really bothered me. And he's not the only offender. I really don't apperciate your apparent gloating in the pains of Ual and the potential problems for the Uax carriers. Do you realize that peoples lives are at stake here??? Its not just some game where no one is affected. But I guess sitting on the bench ie. 0 total time it must be pretty easy to think that it is. As far as Air Wisconsin is concerned, while we might not be able to have the "cush" position that we have now, but I can assure you that we have been in far worse conditions before and survived and we will continue to do so!
To all the pilots on this board we are all in the same boat, we all love to fly and most have familys to support and I wish ALL the best in these troubling times

 

[throttlejockey]

Azul:

No one here (well at least not myself) is trying to gloat about the problems UAX may face.

This is strictly a discussion about the potential problems that UAX (and other regional carriers flying for other majors) may face in the current situation. The truth is that RJ flying will not be as lucrative in the future as it has been in the last few years, and the regional carriers will have to adjust the ways in which they conduct business in order for them to survive.

Yes, this may have a direct effect on your job, or it may not. Who knows. You may actually benefit from this, then again you may not. None of us have crystal balls.

I know that you are worried (I am worried about getting a paycheck every two weeks at the lousy regional I fly for) but these things are out of any of our control.

Don't let the uncertainty get you down, but don't stick your head in the sand either. You need to find a good balance between knowing whats going on around you, and not letting all the uncertainty get you depressed. Hang in there. You are flying for a good company, with good equipment, and decent management.

You should be lucky you don't fly for my outfit!

throttle

 

[dogg]

So in the end, when a bankruptcy judge looks at all the facts and figures and decides that fee for departure at United is over and that they may only code share with the UAX carriers, what happens? What happens when every RJ flying must make a profit for its owners based on the number of passengers flown and the price those passengers paid for the seat on that RJ.

And on another note; With the obvious cost advantage of a turbo-prop on short routes does anyone see a resurgence of the sf-34 or the emb-120 at any of the current carriers

 

[Pilot877]

Re: Ual and Uax

I rarely ever respond to posts here but the past post by Marko really bothered me. And he's not the only offender. I really don't apperciate your apparent gloating in the pains of Ual and the potential problems for the Uax carriers. Do you realize that peoples lives are at stake here??? Its not just some game where no one is affected. But I guess sitting on the bench ie. 0 total time it must be pretty easy to think that it is. As far as Air Wisconsin is concerned, while we might not be able to have the "cush" position that we have now, but I can assure you that we have been in far worse conditions before and survived and we will continue to do so!
To all the pilots on this board we are all in the same boat, we all love to fly and most have familys to support and I wish ALL the best in these troubling times

Thank you, my thoughts exactly! I just try to remember that its a forum and what they say doesnt matter nor does it have any effect on our situations. I just think of them as tiny elves with megaphones and signs that say "LOOK AT ME, LISTEN TO ME!"
That being said, my friend, your post is one of the most intelligent I have read yet regarding the United situation.

 

[Jetsnake]

Re: It didn't take long....

But Air Wisconsin's "cush," position doesn't seem like it's going to last long: the affadavit also mentions that two other regionals have offered to fly flights for UA at a significantly lower cost. [/B]

This is interesting, never knew we had a "Cush" position with
UAL. And I'm sure the private owners know this also.
I'm betting that the other 2 UAX carrier's are trying to figure
out how to accept what AWAC is currently getting on there
pay per departure fee. 1/3 that of there's. You can't really get
any lower than what AWAC is getting now. And they(3 owners)
are still making money. And I hope they continue to get rich...

AWAC agreed to stay at the current 2000-2001 agreement
with UAL after 9/11. The other 2 UAX carriers did not; and not everyone saw explosive growth like those 2 did.

UAL has never had a good working relationship with it's
Union's. Unless this changes, I think they will be liquidated
in 2 years. And the possibility of CRJ 900's and Embraier 195's
flying all over could be a reality. Along with Boeing finally entering
the Regional Market with a 80-100 seater.

And my crystal ball also say's "Time for a Dump"

 

[throttlejockey]

Dogg:

Good Question.

Most likely you will see the UAX carriers renegotiate their deals with UAL. In the end, there will probably be a small net GAIN in flying by the UAX carriers. However, you will most likely see the UAX carriers flying to larger markets at higher levels of utilization then they are now. This is the only way to make $$ with an RJ on your own. You can't make money with an RJ flying lower utilization to small communities.

This will result in a lot of smaller communities that have RJ service now, loose it perminently (and possible forever).

I do not think that those carriers that have retired their props will bring them out of the desert. With that being said, I do think that the smaller third tier carriers (Shuttle America, Air Midwest, Great Lakes, Gulfstream, Big Sky, Corpex, Trans States) may enter into these markets but they will do so only at there own risk, on a pro-rata profit sharing basis with the major partner.

In the end you will see the following structure:

Mainline: Trunk Routes, Hub to Hub, International
Regional: High Utilization Flying (300-400 Hr/Mo. per A/C), Large and Middle Size Markets, Point to Point.
Commuter: Props - Small Communities, EAS, and Middle-Size Markets. May be used to feed both Mainline and Regionals at RJ "Hubs".

throttle

 

[Marko Ramius]

Azul, Pilot877

Easy guys, I think you misunderstand my commentary. This thread is simply a discussion of what the effects of the nasty BK situation over at UAL may have on the UAX carriers and possibly(again only possibly!!) on other regionals out there. A few of you seem to have an objection to my use of the word cush. You'll notice that I put it in quotation marks. I did that for a reason. Just as airlines like UA, DL, Comair, ACA, Air Wis, Horizon and Skywest have engaged in one form or another of upward pattern bargaining over the past few years, the BK's at UA and UsAirways have started a trend of reverse pattern bargaining. Pattern bargaining is one of the multitude of complaints UA has in their court filed documents. If you read UA's court documents carefully, you will see that although they love RJ's and want more, they want them at a reduced cost over what is currently paid. Specifically, they point out that they believe that the fee per departure agreements of Skywest and ACA are too high. They do point out that Air Wis management did remain at last year's rate to help UA something which is excellent and I pointed it out as such in my previous post.

If you only read UA's document to that point, it looks as if ACA and Skywest will only have to bring the rates back to what Air Wis gets and all will be well at Wally World with zero effect on Air Wis. Unfortunately, the last part of the document concerning UAX states that they have two additional regional carriers(Mesa and Chautaqua) willing to provide service at a much lower cost. UA likely intends to try and reverse pattern bargain, their UAX carriers down to whatever the costs of Mesa and Chautaqua are or lower. That is what I meant by putting cush in quotes, that Air Wis is only safe cost wise in relation to ACA and Skywest but not Mesa and Chautaqua. It was meant a sarcastic comment about how management can never get enough from labor-look at how many times UsAirways keeps going to the well. This is the same thing as when the UsAirways WO's complain that the contract carriers are dragging down their pay/benefits or Comair pilots complain about Skywest holding them back. Remember when Air Wis won the Air Tran contract(smart move, good thinking), and there were all those negative quotes from Ornstein at Mesa about UAX carriers going bankrupt and Mesa taking over? While I think he's largely full of hot air and mad that he lost one, I think his comments were reflective of his intention to severely undercut ACA, Skywest, and Air Willy in an attempt to return to being a UAX carrier. Anybody else, notice that Mesa just started a voluntary pay reduction program today?

As far as my cush position of zero time on the bench goes, that's not true either. I have worked at two regionals and also was furloughed from United. I have no desire to see anyone furloughed, and just like you feel that you need to turn the other cheek on some of my comments, I feel the same when I hear pilots at regionals talking about how much flying their going to get from the troubles of their partners when many of those employees are "on the bench." I know livelihoods are at stake, and have clearly felt the effect of this all. Compassion however, isn't going to stop UA management, creditors, or a judge from taking a shaft to us all with little to no regard of the consequences because it is a game to THEM. Some of the stuff we've been speculating about on this board, seems pretty close to reality-at least in UA management's view as evidenced by their court papers. If you want to point fingers, point them at UA management because they're the ones who want to start this train rolling down the tracks.

Bottom line is that it's ugly out here and likely getting uglier. There is going to be alot of jockeying going on pretty soon and we as labor need to understand as much as we can, and be ready for what could be at the other end of the tunnel now versus later. That's the best way for us ALL to survive this and prosper down the road when things inevitably take a turn for the better.

 

[Marko Ramius]

Not all RJ operators use the fee for departure setup. Comair doesn't and never has. [/QUOTE

Absoltuely true Caveman. I don't that there is a question on whether or not the RJ is a profitable aircraft. The question here is how profitable can they be for mainline under fee per departure agreements? Comair, ASA, and other wholly owneds only cost their parent companies the actual cost of the flight while contract carriers cost that plus more. If the operational cost of a contract carrier is lower than a corresponding wholly owned than adding on the fee would likely result in the same overall cost or possibly less depending on the profit margin. You would know better than I, but isn't this part of what happened to Comair's MCO base versus Chautaqua? Either way UA's management seems to feel that their current setup is too expensive. I expect that they are mostly just going for blood on all involved, and want third world costs for their express carriers since they have massive plans to increase their usage. Many people already think that regionals are a C scale, looks like UA wants to make it and F scale! That's why I was saying that this could ultimately have an effect on Comair and ASA. Not because they aren't profitible in their own right, but because UA may try to force the costs of ACA and Skywest down to the point where they become more attractive to DL and put pressure on Comair/ASA. Unless DL comes to ALPA with request for more scope relief, it's likely a moot point for DAL connection carriers, but with the situation at UA likely cause more contractural changes across the industry I think it bears watching.

 

[Pilot877]

Speculate all you want, its your freedom. What you are saying is above my pay grade and I have no control over what the future holds at United.
All I can do is go to work, fly my airplane to the best of my ability, and present the best image for United Airlines possible and support my brothers and sisters at UAL in their company's dark hour.

 

[46Driver]

I don't know if this is fact or fiction (I work on the Delta side of ACA's operation and seldom visit DC) but I think the gates ACA uses at Dulles are owned by ACA and not United. If that is correct, that would give us some extra leverage with UAL. If anybody knows the actual situation at IAD, please post it.