Dave Benjamin
an over 40 victim of fate
- Joined
- Jun 12, 2003
- Posts
- 1,040
WhiteCloud said:Certainly reduction/elimination of mortgage interest deduction would hurt home sales but I'm not sure how a reduction in taxes on capital gains and dividends would. One of the things fueling this real estate recovery/boom the last few years has been the ability to sell without getting reamed on the first $250K of capital gain. Lots of properties becoming available that otherwise would not have been sold.
It's not home sales I'm concerned about. It's home values. For the vast majority of Americans the largest asset and core of their net worth is their primary residence. Between both places I own I write off in excess of $20K/ year. Take away that tax writeoff and I can't afford to keep both properties. If the mortgage deduction was eliminated I'd be in deep doo-doo because that tax deduction fuels the real estate market. I would suddenly find my property devalued. For some people the combination of market devaluation and loss of tax deduction would force them to literally walk away from the property and default on their mortgage. Amplify that by hundreds of thousands of people, perhaps millions and you'll see the worst recession ever. However, as in previous recessions, the richest of the rich would not suffer. In fact they would likely prosper by picking up some real bargains. Soon the interest deduction would be reinstated by Democrats that would be elected by a landslide and some of the wealthy upper crust would enjoy huge gains.
For an example of my prediction happening on a smaller level look at what happened when Reagan instituted the luxury tax on aircraft and yachts. Boatbuilders and aircraft manufacturers went bankrupt or out of business practically overnight. Now we have our government fighting to achieve conflicting goals. They want to preserve tax cuts for the rich and fund the war in Iraq as well as continue to subsidize large corporations through their corporate welfare program. So they're doing things like freezing potentially "fraudulent" tax returns submitted by lower income Americans and reducing expenditures on food stamps and other subsistence type programs. Of the frozen tax returns only a very small percentage are actually fraudulent but it's a lot easier attacking poor people who can't afford lawyers than going after the tax cheats that are scamming millions. Of course a lot of those folks donate to the GOP so they'd be the last ones the administration would go after.