My opinion is that the chances of getting furloughed in the spring, if you are on one of the seasonal contracts (which I'm fairly certain is what they are hiring for right now, since the year-round airplanes are already staffed), is pretty high. The more senior pilots will always have the option to bid into an open slot on the same aircraft, even though it might be on a different contract. Senior pilots from other aircraft types can only bid to a different type if there are furloughed pilots who were previously qualified on your type (PC within the past 36 months) who are willing and able to take your spot. In other words, they don't "double train".
Also, pay is by seat and contract, so if you bid over to a different contract, you start over at first year pay, regardless of years with the company.
Bottom line? Chances are very good of getting furloughed in the spring, since there most likely will not be enough positions for everyone during the summer. The yearly contracts are, for the most part, already staffed; and chances are these will not increase to the point of absorbing everyone. Also, the "recipricol" summer positions with the European carriers have been non-existent the past couple of years.
