Aloha-resign seniority

[Sleepyhead]

Heard a rumor that Aloha is now going to ask new hires to resign their seniority if they are furloughed.
Anyone else hear this?

 

[islandhopper]

Way off. Yet another new hire class of 10 is starting in a few weeks and the plans are for 48 more pilots by June for 4 new airplanes. In order for Aloha to satisfy the terms of the ATSB loan they must add another 10 aircraft. After these four "in theory" there should still be six more airplanes. I dont think AQ is considering any furloughs these days.

Here's some rumor you can run with. US Air plans to pull out of SNA, and hoping that they do, AQ is already playing with the idea of taking U's old gates. The trick is SNA wants those gates used for Eastbound flights. Those gates could be a big springboard for AQ. Take it for what its worth thats just what I been hearing.

That could be just the ticket to put a few of those 10 new airplanes to work.

 

[Freight Dog]

I think he meant if furloughees from say UAL like himself come aboard if they'll have to resign their UAL seniority number in order to get hired at Aloha. I heard that's the case, but who knows.

 

[Sleepyhead]

Well since there is a new class starting at the end of the month, i guess we will find out if it is true soon.

 

[WrightAvia]

They would be stupid if they don't ask for the seniority numbers. A FedEx line pilot told me a few months ago that FedEx wasn't hiring any furloughed airline pilots at all. He said they got hosed the last time around with guys going back to their old airlines when recalled.

A friend of mine is furloughed from Midwest...and a corporate job came up. They asked him to give up his seniority number over there, but he wouldn't. So now he's the corporate fill in co-pilot and the other guy, who did give up the seniority at Midwest, is now the corporate captain at the same place. If things pick up back at Midwest, maybe my friend's gamble will pay off. Maybe the otherguy's hedging his bet on the corporate job will pay off. Maybe they both will do good over time?

 

[SODA]

Here's some rumor you can run with. US Air plans to pull out of SNA, and hoping that they do, AQ is already playing with the idea of taking U's old gates. The trick is SNA wants those gates used for Eastbound flights. Those gates could be a big springboard for AQ.

Can a 737 make it to Hawaii with only 5700 feet of runway for take off?

 

[Freight Dog]

Can a 737 make it to Hawaii with only 5700ft of runway for t/o?

....and do that crazy takeoff procedure at that for those noise-sensitive yuppies. Yup! Been flying to SNA for over 2 years now. Now we have 3 flights a day there - to/from HNL, OGG, KOA. Now watch for winglets this fall on those beauties too.

 

[Sleepyhead]

"They would be stupid if they don't ask for the seniority numbers."

Say airline A hires 10 furloughees. Then in 3 years they all go back to their old airlines. Do the math.
10 pilots making $80K cost $800,000/yr
They replace them with 10 new hires making $30K/yr
that equals a $500,000 savings in salary payout.

Who is stupid now. You may be a highly trained professional, but to management you are just another number.

 

[WrightAvia]

You won't get on with FedEx, holding a seniority number. Why don't you call Fred Smith stupid?

 

[Hugh Jorgan]

[B
Say airline A hires 10 furloughees. Then in 3 years they all go back to their old airlines. Do the math.
[/B]

Okay, let's say they do. In fact, let's say airline A hires 100 pilots over two years and 1/2 of them are furloughed guys. Let's also say this airline has started with about 300 pilots, bought on the order of 20 planes over those two years and increased their pilot numbers by 25%. After two years, all of those furloughed dudes up and split. Now nearly 50 of your pilots are gone. Assuming you are staffed properly, you are now in a world of hurt. How much does it cost a company to cancel a flight? How about a couple of flights a day? Now you have to interview, train and qualify 50 pilots. In the meantime the pilot group has to carry a bigger share of the burden than normal. Nobody wins in this scenario, except for the dudes that took the job and then made a mass exodus when the economy swung. In individual cases, it's no big deal and in the end could save the company money. However, if a company hires a large number of folks furloughed from the same company, they are asking for it if they don't ask them to resign. It will be interesting to see what happens around here if United has a miraculous comeback over the next couple of years. Can you hear that sucking sound????

 

[Sleepyhead]

Your numbers don't exactly add up, because you are looking at extremes. If you look back at past times of mass furloughs and recalls, you will see there has never been a case where 100% of hired furloughees returned to their airline. For example back in the 90s when AA recalled their furloughees only about 50% came back. The reasons people go back or not will vary, some have given up flying, others got jobs with the few companies that were hiring and have built up seniority so they stay where they are.
And the longer a furlough lasts, the less likely people go back.
I don't see anyone getting recalled in 2 years, since the bigs guys are still furloughing today.
Lets look at your example using a more realist number of 50%.
Airline A has 300 pilots, they increase the number by 25% over 2 years. That's an increase of 75 pilots, or on average 3 per month.
Now the economy gets turned around and the airlines start recalling. First of all, not all the furloughees hired are from the same airline and even if they were they are not all going to get recalled on the same day. Again, real world example, back in the 90s, AA didn't start recalls til 9 months after UAL did. And each only called about 100 per month because that is around the max their training dept can handle. So with current furlough numbers it would take both at least a year to recall everyone, and realisticly a lot longer than that. But lets say they recall everyone it in a year.
Then back to our example of Airline A. They hired 75 pilots, now half of them leave for recall over the next year, (37 pilots). That means Airline A will loose about 3 pilots per month. Do you think loosing 3 or 4 pilots a month is going to cause scheduling problems when airlines typically have 10% of their pilots on reserve? And if you say, "well training cost will be higher". , not really. The training dept doesn't shut down even if there is no hiring going on, so having a new hire class or two doesn't cost them much extra. And again back to the money, Airline A looses 8 pilots costing $640k and gets 8 new hires costing $240K. They save a bunch of money even after training cost.
Bottom line, management really doesn't have anything to lose by hiring furloughees. Ya, a small percent will go back when recalled, but most will stay. And don't you think they have a good reason why they are hiring a lot of furloughed pilots?