AirTran's going to SFO

[Heavy Set]

Yeah Ty, you worked on a lot of failed start-ups... Wow - you MUST be an expert. The fact that you could be so unequivocal about Delta's "doomed" future is amazing...

I wish this post would end!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! It's like Groundhog Day - it never dies....

 

[General Lee]

Ty,

It is great that you have experience in failed startups. You really know the ins and outs of failure. That makes you an expert on current operations and privy to all confidential info at every airline.
So, Fred Reid was tap dancing, huh? That's what you do when people make you look bad, then you slam the furloughed people. Thank God you really aren't the head of an airline, everyone would have quit by now.

Your predictions so far have not come true. You predicted United would be gone by now, and take a look--they are still here and doing better than expected. With United doing so poorly, do you actually think Delta could do worse, even with the stronger balance sheet? Oh yeah, Song will lead us down the Chap 11 path, right......Heavy Set was right, this thread is getting lame. It must be great that Ty can see into the future. Hey, any chance you know the lotto numbers for Wed???

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Ty Webb]

I worked on several projects- airlines that were in different stages of development. It gave me a lot of insight as to the details of the business side of an airline, knowlege that the "General" is clearly lacking.

General- ever written a Business Plan? Ever read one? Do you even know what one is? How about a Balance Sheet, Income Statement, Cash Flow Analysis . . . . any of these terms ring a bell with you? The reason I ask is that you seem to be little more than a "Rah-Rah" man for a leadership team that has caused your shareholders HUGE losses over the last 2 years. The passengers are there, the plan to convert those pax into money isn;t, and when I try to point out any of that, you seem to have nothing but sarcasm and insults to respond with.

As for my comments about United . . . I said they have some covenants coming up that they will not meet (October, and the Spring), not the way they are going. Unless something changes, buh-bye. . . . and without the Government Cheese, they probably would have been gone by now.

And last, I don't know what happened to you, general, but you have turned into a sarcastic, whiny little toad lately . . . short on fact, and long on bitterness and venom. Take a break, loosen up that double-breasted jacket, and take a couple of deep breaths. Look around you , for crying out loud. You have a job at a premier carrier. Go volunteer at a soup kitchen, or play with your kids, or, hell, play with yourself.

 

[~~~^~~~]

Hey, don't be too rough on the General. The Delta guys have a difficult time with the truth and it shows a lot of initiative for a Delta pilot to get on a public board and debate. Lets applaud their efforts.

Fly Delta's Jets left after he went insane. Lets not chase the General and Ty away, life would get boring.

Fins,

I didn't know you got an MBA at Harvard?

Leo, unlike you, has an MBA from Harvard and he was a super-senior banking executive at First Chicago. I tend to think that he knows what he is doing - more than you do. Guess what - you ain't!

With PRIDE I tell you my Graduate Certification is not from Harvard.

I'm sure you have heard about the three college students who went to Tijuana Mexico on spring break. They got drunk, thrown in jail and although they did not remember what they did, they were to be electrocuted at dawn.

The Seminary student from Loyola went first. The guard threw the switch and nothing happened. The student exclaimed this was a sign from God, he must be released!

The next up was a Duke law student. The mexican threw the switch and nothing happened! The student said, this is double jeopardy, no one can be punished twice for the same crime. You must release me! So he went free.

Finally was the Harvard business school student. He looked around and exclaimed, I can fix this! All you do is connect those three wires over there....

 

[Ty Webb]

Apparently, I'm not alone here. Here is a post I copied from another board:


Yes...we do hope Delta swaps some 767-400s, adds flights, dumps seats, lowers their fares...whatever they feel they need to "protect their market share". Do what they've been doing. FOLLOWING the LCCs. Reacting to what other companies do instead of making their own plan and sticking with it.

Yes...let them keep this up. All it does is cost them millions and millions of dollars.

As to your remark about FL's "defensive strategy". Nothing could be further from the truth. These 4 cities (LAX, LAS, SFO, and the next one you will see announced--PHX) have all been part of the original plan, hence the agreement with the AirTran pilots to allow Ryan to operate flights into these four markets. Hardly a "defensive" move.

You are also right about DCA. Once again, Delta will "react" to FL's move, instead of having a plan of their own. We love it. We set the markets, we set the price, Delta reacts, dumps seats, lowers prices, loses more money. AirTran will take that "business plan" of Delta's to the bank every day.

One final question. How long do you think Delta can continue to use it's "resources" defending it's routes? They may have the resources, but this strategy will eventually bleed them to levels unacceptable to the board of directors and the shareholders. Maybe, if they just keep on "defending" their routes, they will wind up defending much more than their bread and butter routes.

I think AirTran and jetBlue have their business plans set, with aircraft acquisitions and routes already currently planned for these aircraft. These plans are not in response to anything Delta (or any other airline, for that matter) does, and will not change in response to anything they do. Unfortunately, Delta cannot say the same thing. It seems EVERYTHING that they (and Song) do is in direct response to the actions of some Low Cost Carrier. Not a very solid plan, if you ask me.

 

[~~~^~~~]

One final question. How long do you think Delta can continue to use it's "resources" defending it's routes?

Late 2004, to mid 2005, based on current projections. The Company has around 2.4 Bn in liquidity and easily tapped money. They must preserve 1.2 to 1.4 Bn to re start the operation under Chapter 11 reorganization.

Like Eastern and Pan Am, Delta can drag this out a while. Depends oon how long they can continue to refinance debt obligations. Currently they are refinancing debt instruments at higher interest rates to avoid payments during the cash crunch in 2005. Obviously, refinancing 4.0% loans at 6.0% plus is not the sort of thing healthy companies do.

 

[Steeler Fan]

Yesterday AirTran announced further expansion the west. San Fran is the next city to get low air fares to the east coast. Check out the story at www.airtran.com.

Service starts in November and will be expanded in January.

Cheers!