Airtran to cut growth in 09 and 10

[fam62c]

If you do not work for Airtran why do you care?

Because I'm interested in the industry, is that OK with you? BTW nice $ss

 

[Lear70]

I wish some other departments at AAI would get some better pay too...that 50 cent raise every 6 months has really got me close to that yacht I've always wanted

No doubt...

F/A's, HQ and Ground workers, everyone needs to share in airTran's success.

Not asking them to bury the airline, but pay industry averages AT LEAST, please, plus COLA every year, and if you have to raise ticket prices $5 bucks to do it, that's the way it goes. Cost of doing business...

As far as the math goes, here's a couple things that skewed that analysis:

1. There are always more F/O's on the seniority list than CA's. Reason: it takes longer to do initial training on a guy than it does upgrade and you always want enough guys to put into the pipeline last-second in case you have a massive unexpected increase in CA resignations (last spring/summer when the Legacies recalled/hired quite a few). The different isn't big, probably 5% (100 right now) more F/O's than CA's on the list, but actual line pilots available to bid is close to 50/50.

2. There are quite a few guys out on medical, and the majority are CA's, as are the union guys for the most part (and the other people who get removed on buy-out from time to time). Puts the upgrade number lower on the seniority list than just 50/50

Those two things make the split roughly 55% down the seniority list to hold CA.

Also, each year comes atttrition through not only resignations / retirements but also through long/term permanent loss of medical, etc.

This means you have to plan for upgrades higher than straight "delivery" math. Historically-speaking over the last 2 years, we've seen attrition as low as 5 pilots per month and, one month, almost 20, I've been figuring 7 pilots per month attrition, most of which have been senior to me.

At 6 CA's per aircraft, 7 a/c per year plus the above "extra staffing needs" = 120 CA's per year. These seem to go in spurts, we'll see 10-20 upgrades some months, then nothing for 2 months.

A guy/gal hired today with a total seniority list of approx 2,000 pilots needs to move to right about the 900 number to upgrade. That's about 7-8 years for a new-hire, 6-7 years for a guy hired last year, 4-5 years for someone hired 2 years ago. Includes figuring for a slow-down in attrition due to slowing hiring at other airlines.

Not stellar, but what "major" airline has a guaranteed upgrade time?

F/O pay is going to have to come up...

 

[maxblast72]

Eagle757Shark:
You usually post some pretty insightful stuff, but I think you are making some assumptions here that are at odds with what we are seeing on the line . . . and these observations are backed up by the load factors.
Part of the reason that AAI did well after 9/11 is that the BUSINESS travelers cut back . . . or found cheaper alternatives . . . . like AAI. More and more teleconferencing goes on every day, but you can't teleconference a wedding, a funeral, a family get-together. . . .
February is usually slow . . . my flights last week were either oversold, or were within 10 seats of being full . . . people are traveling, and will keep traveling. Also, we're not selling airplanes out of our fleet, just taking fewer deliveries. TW

Talking about load factors, did anyone see our February results? 28% RSM growth on 14% ASM growth giving us a load factor almost 9% higher than Feb. 2007. Even with our higher ticket prices, still having no trouble yet filling up our airplanes. With airplanes close to 80% full, it looks like we have more room to raise ticket prices until we find that sweet spot for maximum yield.

Looks like the overextended American consumers are tougher than I gave them credit for on past posts.

 

[Jonny Sacko]

Isn't all of this rhetoric coming out during the meat and potato's of your contract negotiations??

Sounds like Crap Management 101, maybe they just got the book in the mail??

Hang Tough, Whatever, talk talk talk. Oh ya, we'll buy another airline, but don't look over there!

 

[Pancho]

Ding,ding,ding,ding,ding!!!
We Have A Winner!!!

 

[-9Capt]

why aren't we having this discussion on the union message board?

 

[PCL_128]

why aren't we having this discussion on the union message board?

Why can't we do both?

 

[Lear70]

why aren't we having this discussion on the union message board?

Because this board is anonymous, more people will post what they actually think.

Everyone's just a wee bit paranoid these days about posting what they really think. Putting your name to your post requires a level of commitment I don't think most of our pilots are at... yet... (hopefully meaning they will be sometime soon).

I believe the NPA going to bat for us and DL and I getting our jobs back will give everyone the confidence in our union to step up and show some backbone.

They just need to know the NPA is going to be there 100% to back them when they come under the microscope and that a lot of other guys will join in "lock-step" with them so that they can't be singled out as easily.

 

[-9Capt]

Geez, grow a set already.

We were all kicking and screaming for the union to turn the message board back on, and when they do we're too intimidated to use it? GMAFB.

Seriously, you guys need to man up. No wonder the last TA looked like it did. Think about it!

 

[TV9Driver]

for some reason i haven't been able to get on the union website... i'll keep trying...