Airtran and Frontier, running on fumes?

[johnsonrod]

There's little-to-no market for the 71. Money will be made, if needed ($hit hits the fan/no merger) by selling the rights to 73s!

That's what I heard at the schoolhouse last week and it makes sense.

Of course, they're probably predicting something else this week!

I am pretty sure Orenstein over at Mesa could find some work for the 717s in Africa.

 

[SkyW120]

What's the story with F9's stock today? It's down almost 17%. Most other carriers are up.

I was thinking the same thing. FRNT's market cap is down to $77 million. I hope things can turn around quickly for everyone in this business.

 

[Cardinal]

What's the story with F9's stock today? It's down almost 17%. Most other carriers are up.

The sheeple decided that a market cap way below book value isn't low enough, and instead a market cap extremely below book value was instead called for.

 

[Capt.LongThrust]

There's little-to-no market for the 71. Money will be made, if needed ($hit hits the fan/no merger) by selling the rights to 73s!

That's what I heard at the schoolhouse last week and it makes sense.

Of course, they're probably predicting something else this week!

That would also tell me we would have more leverage when it comes to renegotiating leases if need be.

 

[Dude]

There is plenty of market for the 717. It may not be here in the states, but a lot of opportunity exists for that aircraft in Asia and Africa. Perhaps when this square dance of consolidation stops and the dust settles there will be several start-ups that would, gladly, fly a next generation aircraft like the '17. The point is, AirTran has the capability to change their fleet plan if they choose to.

AAI has almost always been underestimated. Hell, Boeing even told them that they didn't need the '37 and should not deviate from the continuity of an all '17 fleet. Only after Airbus, damn near, gave them some airframes did Boeing come to the table and deal on Leonard's terms......this from my bud at Boeing CC. The analysts have gotten it wrong before and this is likely the case now. AAI has far too much market influence to just go away or liquidate in a fire sale. Nope, that boil on Delta's a$$ is probably going to stick around and fester.

 

[General Lee]

There is plenty of market for the 717. It may not be here in the states, but a lot of opportunity exists for that aircraft in Asia and Africa. Perhaps when this square dance of consolidation stops and the dust settles there will be several start-ups that would, gladly, fly a next generation aircraft like the '17. The point is, AirTran has the capability to change their fleet plan if they choose to.

AAI has almost always been underestimated. Hell, Boeing even told them that they didn't need the '37 and should not deviate from the continuity of an all '17 fleet. Only after Airbus, damn near, gave them some airframes did Boeing come to the table and deal on Leonard's terms......this from my bud at Boeing CC. The analysts have gotten it wrong before and this is likely the case now. AAI has far too much market influence to just go away or liquidate in a fire sale. Nope, that boil on Delta's a$$ is probably going to stick around and fester.

That boil on our a$$ is now running out of room at ATL, and just announced new nonstop service from BWI to SEA(additional service to SEA), PDX, and LAX this Summer. Sounds like you might catch an Ear Infu#ktion yourself chief. But, there is very little chance Airtran or Delta will invade your goldmine at LBB. Good for you!

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Tanker Clown]

Looks like Air Tran is taking it to DAL out of ATL. It's cheaper to fly to ORD from ATL on Delta than it is to ride Greyhound from Atlanta to Chicago. No wonder Pan Am can't make money with a full jet.

 

[Thunderchief]

Selling the 717's that Airtran owns is unlikely. I know at least 3 of them are some of the last ones AAI took delivery of. They are pretty new (2 yrs or less) so that doesn't sound like a good business decision to me. Breaking the leases is also unlikely due to the way most leases are written, if Airtran's are like most, it would cost them millions (per aircraft) to return them early.
If SWA buys out AAI, that doesn't break the lease terms so the 717's probably would not be returned early. SWA would still be responsible...Only bankruptcy can give you the power to break a lease.
The ATL gates are set up for the 717, if SWA wanted only 737's there they would lose gates due to the larger 737 wingspan... plus the added cost of reconfiguiring the gates.
But what do I know, I AM just another dumb pilot on the outside looking in.
-TC

 

[Ty Webb]

Only bankruptcy can give you the power to break a lease.

An airframe mfg like Embraer could offer to take the 717 leases off their hands, in exchange for a nice fat order book of $95./hr 100 seaters.

 

[Sparse]

so that doesn't sound like a good business decision to me.

What? Going into the airline business isn't a good business decision in itself.

 

[Thunderchief]

An airframe mfg like Embraer could offer to take the 717 leases off their hands, in exchange for a nice fat order book of $95./hr 100 seaters.

That's a good point Ty, hadn't given it much thought. Plus we could cram more Ejets on the C and D concourse... I don't wanna take a pay cut so hopefully that isnt an option until after our new industry leading contract!

 

[Dude]

General,

Lighten up, Sweetheart. I was merely referencing the competition in ATL and how that could represent a pain in the arse. I guess you don't see AAI as competition, do you? Your far superior product couldn't possibly be compared with that of the renamed Critter. The presence of AirTran in ATL has lowered the fares at the cities commonly served by AAI and DAL. If that doesn't suck for DAL, then I want some of the crack they are smokin'.

Everyone else,

As far as the 717 leases are concerned, they are about as tight as the General's mouth. Anything is negotiable and if Boeing sees an opportunity to get top dollar for those in a different hemisphere, then they will pursue the option of trading airframes for orders, deliveries, or existing leases.

Regardless of what happens, with an unstable economy and folks keeping their money in their pocket or at least holding on to more of it; I'd put my money on an airline that has the casm to support $79.00 fares to TPA, MCO, or LBB.

 

[easydoesit]

Yeah!! What the dude said.

 

[JoeMerchant]

Nope, that boil on Delta's a$$ is probably going to stick around and fester.

....General Lee's not that bad......:laugh:

 

[General Lee]

General,

Lighten up, Sweetheart. I was merely referencing the competition in ATL and how that could represent a pain in the arse. I guess you don't see AAI as competition, do you? Your far superior product couldn't possibly be compared with that of the renamed Critter. The presence of AirTran in ATL has lowered the fares at the cities commonly served by AAI and DAL. If that doesn't suck for DAL, then I want some of the crack they are smokin'.

Everyone else,

As far as the 717 leases are concerned, they are about as tight as the General's mouth. Anything is negotiable and if Boeing sees an opportunity to get top dollar for those in a different hemisphere, then they will pursue the option of trading airframes for orders, deliveries, or existing leases.

Regardless of what happens, with an unstable economy and folks keeping their money in their pocket or at least holding on to more of it; I'd put my money on an airline that has the casm to support $79.00 fares to TPA, MCO, or LBB.

That was pure genius, DUDE. Anyway, I do think Airtran is competition. They have driven our widebodies out of FLA, and off to new lands that their 737-700s cannot touch. That has increased the need for pilots, and in reality helped us focus on better yeilds on the INTL side. They have a good product, with XM radio etc, and have kept us on our toes. Our krappy RJ product has suffered against their 717s, and that will hopefully spur our management into finding an adequate 100 seater, or just order more 737-700s eventually.

As far as people keeping money in their pockets, as DUDE states, that may not be so obvious this Summer. Gas is on the high side for driving as well. People will likely fly and probably break even compared to driving across the country to see granny. And, something Airtran and the likes of SWA do not have, is INTL feed pumping in foreign currency that is higher than our dollar. Most legacies that have a great INTL presence will make more money by catering to the INTL pax. Our flights may not have as many Americans going to Europe and back----rather Europeans coming here and then going back. They think fares are a steal probably with the higher Euro. Americans would be shocked, and Europeans would be pleasantly surprised. That's the way it is when we have an economic downturn. Southwest and Airtran cannot hunt for that Euro traffic. At least SWA has those hedges. Good for them.


Bye Bye--General Lee