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Airlines Poisoned by Oil

  • Thread starter Thread starter STL717
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STL717

CL-215 Lake James, NC
Joined
Jun 3, 2003
Posts
251
Airlines Poisoned by Oil


The high price of oil has disrupted the airline industry's return to profitability, with Wall Street brokerages dropping earnings estimates and warning that more could come.
 
With oil barrel prices at over $37 per barrel, which airlines have zero hedging:

1. UAL
2. USAirways
3. Northwest
4. Continental
5. AMR (not much?)
6. Frontier

Who are the best hedged:

1. Southwest (85%)
2. Delta (58% hedged for 1st Quarter and 38% full year) - best of legacy carriers

I don't know much about ATA, AirTran and JetBlue hedging efforts.

Thanks O-PECkers!
 
Heavy Set said:
With oil barrel prices at over $37 per barrel, which airlines have zero hedging:

1. UAL
2. USAirways
3. Northwest
4. Continental
5. AMR (not much?)
6. Frontier

Who are the best hedged:

1. Southwest (85%)
2. Delta (58% hedged for 1st Quarter and 38% full year) - best of legacy carriers

I don't know much about ATA, AirTran and JetBlue hedging efforts.

Thanks O-PECkers!

I know JB is sufficiently hedged, maybe in very good shape. I do not know the exact % but I will try and find out. I do know we have a closely monitored program for certain.

C yaaaa
 
Hopefully prices won't be high too long. Gotta wonder about Northwest though...No hedging? I also thought I read somewhere they have the least fuel efficient fleet out there. I'm sure the almost 200 or so DC-9s don't help save money with high fuel prices. Hope like heck it works out for them though.

Yeah, I don't know if one could hedge fuel while in BK or not, you would think people would want that money... but I'm not a bk lawyer.....or any lawyer for that matter....
 
Someone once told me that for every PENNY fuel prices increase, AMR loses an additional $40-50 million per year. I am not sure whether that is correct or not (sounds a bit high), but with their entire fleet guzzling fuel on a daily basis, maybe that is not too far off....

Let's hope gas prices start to decline sooner than later - or we won't have any jobs to go to other than Southwest with its 85% hedging...
 
In the latest copy of OnCourse, the NWA Flight Ops Magazine a Q&A with their CFO was featured. The question of hedgeing was brought up and he replied that "you can also lose money by hedgeing when the fuel prices go down" so they have not hedged as much (or at all?) as they should have. What does this guy make a year?
 
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Oil Prices

We have nobody to blame but ourselves. . .

Southeastern Iraq and Kuwait should have been annexed as the 51st State back in 1991.

Name the new territory "Texico" and peg gas prices at $.20 per gallon until the wells run dry. . . .

<Sigh>. . . . .
 
Add ATA to the list of carriers that don't hedge fuel.

Our VP's tell us that it's too expensive upfront to hedge. ATA not being too cash heavy as it is - is unable to benefit from a hedge program. Of course if fuel goes crazy, as it is now, we end up taking a very big hit.

The military flying is insulated from fuel spikes as they pay the going rate for the trip.
 
The simple answer to taking control of world crude prices is to simply drill in the ANWR. The US doesn't even have to extract one barrel of oil, the means to do so is enough to maniplulate the market to our pricing preferrence.

But, as long as the bunny huggers cry about drilling in the ANWR, we are subject to whatever OPEC wants.

Write your Congressman/woman...tell em all about it.

HC
 
But, as long as the bunny huggers cry about drilling in the ANWR, we are subject to whatever OPEC wants.

SHACK...what he said...then we tell Middle East countries they can bathe in the black stuff, or drink it, or blow each other up over it...WE DON'T CARE.
 
Unfortunately, there is relatively little oil up there and the middle east knows it. It could only act as a short term measure. Estimates of oil in the area goes from 4.5b to 18b barrels, with the tree huggers giving the lower number, as far as what is recoverable, it is hard to say. Best case scenario is amounts equal to 30 years of imports from Saudi, worst is 5years. Of course, as has been suggested, we could use it, to offset any spike in oil.

What I think we need to do, is to have a serious round of talks with the Saudis, the Kuwaitis and all the other oil producing countries in that part of the world. Lay down the law, so to speak.
We have cuddled the Saudis for far too long, if the truth was known about their involvement with terrorism, I think it would anger more than a few red blooded americans.

Secondly, we must impress upon them, that the US economy is depending upon the use of cheap oil. Now, if the Saud's were using the money to help their people, perhaps I could understand, but they are simply anmassing larger fortunes.
We have to get them to understand, that any price gouging, as seems to be what is going on now, cannot be tolerated and that it may force upon the US a shift in the way we deal with them. While an oil embargo would be hard to realize, perhaps we could persuade the Iraqis to cut us a deal, although, I have fear they will soon join OPEC and toe the line. Of course, we could attempt to persuade Libya, a country starving for oil exports.
 
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Hey, is Libya a part of OPEC? We are now "friends" with them again, so maybe they can give us some "cheap" oil and we can rev up their economy and make Tripoli nice again---it will be beautiful----like a beautiful Beirut. I can't wait to go there on my vacation...??

Bye Bye--General Lee:rolleyes: ;)
 
I believe the comrades in Russia have major oi reserves as well as in their former satellites in the Caspian Sea. They have oil, we need oil, and we both have the same problem with fundamental Muslim terrorists. I think there is a deal to be made......
 
46Driver said:
I believe the comrades in Russia have major oi reserves as well as in their former satellites in the Caspian Sea. They have oil, we need oil, and we both have the same problem with fundamental Muslim terrorists. I think there is a deal to be made......

When Cheney was CEO of Halliburton, they tried to cut a deal with the Taliban to construct a pipeline across Afghanistan. Many of the 'stans of the FSU have a lot of oil. The problem is getting it to market.
 
spanky2 said:
Don't think a company in CH-11 can hedge fuel...UAL, USAir.

When they entered ch 11, those hedges were worth $. They were required to liquidate the hedging contracts as part of the BK process. IIRC, in UAL's case, they booked a fairly substantial profit ... to eventually be paid to the creditors.
 
JB Hedge

jetblue320 said:
I know JB is sufficiently hedged, maybe in very good shape. I do not know the exact % but I will try and find out. I do know we have a closely monitored program for certain.

C yaaaa

Ok, I found out straight from the big man himself. His claim was we are #2 in hedging behind Southwest. His figures stated:
"45% at $26 a barrel". Now, if the 58% figure quoted for DL for the first quarter is correct, we are not #2 but David did not state for what period the 45% was for, and I didn't ask.

Anyway, that's the poop.

C yaaa
 
Jetblue320,

That 58% number is correct---and that is ONLY for the 1st quarter (which right now is the most expensive), and then 38% for the rest of the year. I do not know exactly what the price was per barrel, though.

Bye Bye--General Lee;)
 

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