Just wanted to see where everyone thinks the airlines will be in the next five years. I still hear and read that there will be a shortage of pilots in the future due to others retiring, but right now that is hard to believe. I know some regionals are hiring, but at the same time others are furlouging, and as we all know some of the majors are in trouble. Right now the industry is saturated with pilots. Where do you think the industry will be in 5 years??
Welcome to Flightinfo.com
- Register now and join the discussion
- Friendliest aviation Ccmmunity on the web
- Modern site for PC's, Phones, Tablets - no 3rd party apps required
- Ask questions, help others, promote aviation
- Share the passion for aviation
- Invite everyone to Flightinfo.com and let's have fun
Airlines in 5 years
- Thread starter AJL5236
- Start date
- Watchers 6
Welcome to Flightinfo.com
- Register now and join the discussion
- Modern secure site, no 3rd party apps required
- Invite your friends
- Share the passion of aviation
- Friendliest aviation community on the web
T-handle
Well-known member
- Joined
- Nov 27, 2001
- Posts
- 344
There will never be a "shortage of pilots". There are thousands of furloughed airline pilots currently on the streets. If anything, we have too many pilots (for the capacity of flying) at the moment.
Flight schools use that term to lure students in. Even now, big name flight schools still say there is a shortage of pilots despite the forementioned. I don't think anyone knows what's going to happen next month let alone in 5 years. Good luck.
Flight schools use that term to lure students in. Even now, big name flight schools still say there is a shortage of pilots despite the forementioned. I don't think anyone knows what's going to happen next month let alone in 5 years. Good luck.
jumppilot
Something in a box
- Joined
- Feb 14, 2002
- Posts
- 477
Yeah just hang in there. Timing is everything in this industry. Last year I was a portfolio analyst and instructing part time. Now I'm a regional airline pilot earning way less than a portfolio analyst but hey at least I'm happy with what I'm doing.
Things will get better for those that tough it out!
Things will get better for those that tough it out!
FlyingFarmer
Well-known member
- Joined
- Apr 8, 2003
- Posts
- 103
OH YEAH great Idea!??
Sure---
Tough it out! That's a great idea. Don't pay any attention
to the pay and work rules at your current place of employment
I mean c'mon, it's just some regional right?!?
And soon enough things will turn around and the MAJORS will
start hiring again!!!!!!!!
And then you'll get a job there and leave all the losers behind
RIGHT?
Sure---
Tough it out! That's a great idea. Don't pay any attention
to the pay and work rules at your current place of employment
I mean c'mon, it's just some regional right?!?
And soon enough things will turn around and the MAJORS will
start hiring again!!!!!!!!
And then you'll get a job there and leave all the losers behind
RIGHT?
jumppilot
Something in a box
- Joined
- Feb 14, 2002
- Posts
- 477
Re: OH YEAH great Idea!??
If you are so tired of it, get out of it...Unless you never had the foresight to plan on the pay cut and work rules. I will NOT make aviation my primary source of income...It is all about figuring out what else you can do to make money (real estate, computers, etc).
So if you hate it so much, get out.
FlyingFarmer said:
If you are so tired of it, get out of it...Unless you never had the foresight to plan on the pay cut and work rules. I will NOT make aviation my primary source of income...It is all about figuring out what else you can do to make money (real estate, computers, etc).
So if you hate it so much, get out.
FlyingFarmer
Well-known member
- Joined
- Apr 8, 2003
- Posts
- 103
"sigh"
Ok,
I'll try to calmy adress each-
First of all, I'm already out, I'm furloughed
from a major. Try saying "if you didn't plan on work rules
and pay cut, then blah blah blah" when you ACTUALLY
have a life, house etc. not living hand to mouth.
If you sense frustation in my post
it's because working at the Mcjob has given me
alot of time to reflect. I imagine alot of what I say
will be lost on most of you, I mean, your a jump pilot,
I've done that job and In some ways I probably MIGHT
have felt like you long ago, you still have that gleem in
your eye, and are thinking, IF ONLY -- I don't know you
so I could be wrong, if I am I'm sorry I've misread you.
but, maybe I can influence just a few.
It's like this guys, a beech 1900 FO's pay
and benefits should follow an even trajectory to that
of a triple 7 Captain. Think about that statement for
a moment and what it means, It means that in order
for that brass ring to be there at the end of the rainbow,
(---but I'm not motivated by dirty soiled money....
I JUST WANT TO FLY ...harp music, trust me you will be at some point when you're on you 100th junior man and you're supposed to go to your engagement party-- whatever----)
anyway sidebar complete, for that brass ring to still be there,
PILOTS have to quit working for less. (It's not just Mesa, someone should break a donkey you know what off in
ALPA Woerth's tail) we all have to stop paying for jobs,
or type ratings, or whatever----- Because what we are all witnessing is the EROSION of the quality of life for all pilots.
SW Kelleher heads take note, how big does your company have to be so that YOU will have the retirement that the Senoir guys at your company have? And how long until you guys are knocked down by the NEXT Low Cost Carrier as your cost and quality of life go (hopefullly) UP. Think it can't happen? three words-
Comair Florida Chautuaqua
err... or was it ASA? No matter, sooner or later EROSION will hit us all. UNLESS.......Bueller Bueller anyone anyone?
Ok,
I'll try to calmy adress each-
First of all, I'm already out, I'm furloughed
from a major. Try saying "if you didn't plan on work rules
and pay cut, then blah blah blah" when you ACTUALLY
have a life, house etc. not living hand to mouth.
If you sense frustation in my post
it's because working at the Mcjob has given me
alot of time to reflect. I imagine alot of what I say
will be lost on most of you, I mean, your a jump pilot,
I've done that job and In some ways I probably MIGHT
have felt like you long ago, you still have that gleem in
your eye, and are thinking, IF ONLY -- I don't know you
so I could be wrong, if I am I'm sorry I've misread you.
but, maybe I can influence just a few.
It's like this guys, a beech 1900 FO's pay
and benefits should follow an even trajectory to that
of a triple 7 Captain. Think about that statement for
a moment and what it means, It means that in order
for that brass ring to be there at the end of the rainbow,
(---but I'm not motivated by dirty soiled money....
I JUST WANT TO FLY ...harp music, trust me you will be at some point when you're on you 100th junior man and you're supposed to go to your engagement party-- whatever----)
anyway sidebar complete, for that brass ring to still be there,
PILOTS have to quit working for less. (It's not just Mesa, someone should break a donkey you know what off in
ALPA Woerth's tail) we all have to stop paying for jobs,
or type ratings, or whatever----- Because what we are all witnessing is the EROSION of the quality of life for all pilots.
SW Kelleher heads take note, how big does your company have to be so that YOU will have the retirement that the Senoir guys at your company have? And how long until you guys are knocked down by the NEXT Low Cost Carrier as your cost and quality of life go (hopefullly) UP. Think it can't happen? three words-
Comair Florida Chautuaqua
err... or was it ASA? No matter, sooner or later EROSION will hit us all. UNLESS.......Bueller Bueller anyone anyone?
I think I read somewhere that currently across the board(major/national/regional), there is about 15% over-capacity. At the rate airlines are going, rather than allow the economy to grow into that, they are going to reduce 15% one way or another, which will more than account for the next 7-8 yrs worth of retirement. So with about 10,000 pilots looking for work and more headed that way, I would say that no, there will never be a shortage of qualified pilots. Of course there never has been in the history of the arline business. Of course that is not to say that some day there might be a shortage of pilots that the HR depts at the airlines are willing to hire. There is a vast difference between the two. So if ya keep pluggin away and through the use of a crack pipe and a ouigee board you can come up with what airline HR depts. are looking for you will someday be an airline pilot...Press on and good luck........
jumppilot
Something in a box
- Joined
- Feb 14, 2002
- Posts
- 477
Re: "sigh"
FlyingFarmer,
That was a good post. Sorry if my tone of my post seemed a little harsh, I guess you and I are on different extremes.
Your logic did not escape me...I remember how happy I was when I got my first CFI job....Then after two years, multiple students and being stuck, the job lost its luster and I saw myself being more pissed off than happy.
I know being an airline pilot will be that way too, unfortunatley. I suspose it is all in the attitude.
FlyingFarmer,
That was a good post. Sorry if my tone of my post seemed a little harsh, I guess you and I are on different extremes.
Your logic did not escape me...I remember how happy I was when I got my first CFI job....Then after two years, multiple students and being stuck, the job lost its luster and I saw myself being more pissed off than happy.
I know being an airline pilot will be that way too, unfortunatley. I suspose it is all in the attitude.
GearUpBitch
Member
- Joined
- May 15, 2002
- Posts
- 19
LR25
Its just a vintage VW
- Joined
- Nov 25, 2001
- Posts
- 1,641
You have to be happy in what your doing.
I can still say, its better than working for a living.
I have found out, that once your attitude goes, there is not that much that will change your outlook, and that goes for everything, not just a job.
Aviation, if it were easy, everyone would be in it.
I can still say, its better than working for a living.
I have found out, that once your attitude goes, there is not that much that will change your outlook, and that goes for everything, not just a job.
Aviation, if it were easy, everyone would be in it.
AceCrackshot
Well-known member
- Joined
- Feb 10, 2003
- Posts
- 380
I agree with all of the above...there has been a terrific erosion of airline pay and benefits over the last twenty-eight years that I've been part of the industry...my father was a TWA guy, and I'm too stupid for a real job.
It used to be that pilots were paid good salaries because there was some appreciation (in an economic sense) for the hazards implicit in aviation. I remember well into the 80's my father being unable to get life insurance because of the actuarial evidence.
Now, we are safe physically in the cockpit (at least some of us are) but there is no accounting for the facts economic hazards we fact industry-wide. Moreover, I know very few professional pilots who have acheived their level of professionalism without a few white-knuckle, search-for-clean-underwear events. Its all fun and games when you're getting a coffee from a pretty girl in a 767, but do you remember the reason you're there was the fact you survived a student spinning you out of 700 AGL and you managed through skill and luck to survive? Moreover, when you're furloughed out of your Airbus you don't get to carry your longevity to the next job. That in itself should demand risk premimum in our salaries. Lawyers and physicians, while highly skilled and educated, simply don't have to contend with these facts of life.
This is all a way of saying that we don't demand what we should. I consel anyone to avoid aviation, because while a few lucky souls might be a Citation X Capt at a Fractional or a Airbus FO, the vast majority of pilots will be stuck for the foreseeable future at low wage, benefitless jobs. The rest of are stuck here through a combination of inertia and the feeling we should get something from investment.
In the meanwhile, most of the large companies in this industry continue to be poorly run.
Aviation as a career? I hate to say it. It's over.
It used to be that pilots were paid good salaries because there was some appreciation (in an economic sense) for the hazards implicit in aviation. I remember well into the 80's my father being unable to get life insurance because of the actuarial evidence.
Now, we are safe physically in the cockpit (at least some of us are) but there is no accounting for the facts economic hazards we fact industry-wide. Moreover, I know very few professional pilots who have acheived their level of professionalism without a few white-knuckle, search-for-clean-underwear events. Its all fun and games when you're getting a coffee from a pretty girl in a 767, but do you remember the reason you're there was the fact you survived a student spinning you out of 700 AGL and you managed through skill and luck to survive? Moreover, when you're furloughed out of your Airbus you don't get to carry your longevity to the next job. That in itself should demand risk premimum in our salaries. Lawyers and physicians, while highly skilled and educated, simply don't have to contend with these facts of life.
This is all a way of saying that we don't demand what we should. I consel anyone to avoid aviation, because while a few lucky souls might be a Citation X Capt at a Fractional or a Airbus FO, the vast majority of pilots will be stuck for the foreseeable future at low wage, benefitless jobs. The rest of are stuck here through a combination of inertia and the feeling we should get something from investment.
In the meanwhile, most of the large companies in this industry continue to be poorly run.
Aviation as a career? I hate to say it. It's over.
FlyingFarmer
Well-known member
- Joined
- Apr 8, 2003
- Posts
- 103
Can I have an AMEN
First things first---AHA!!!!!!
Gearupb-that avatar is fantastic, made my day
Points to Ponder
This goes out to all the young guns with the "gleam"
in their eye who are right now eating mac and cheese,
Ramen, and 4 for a dollar tuna in water...
All I ask, is that when you finally do get your dream shot
at flying the line, don't pay for a type, don't pay for training,
and WORK to make the job that you get (the state of the
profession) better than when you first got hired, that means
stay involved, stay informed, and don't work for less. Instead of the very typical mentality of , to heck with it, I'm out of here soon. OR the "I've got mine" attitude. Just remember, believe in yoreself (and my spelling), - what you do and what you know has worth and value, also remember that unless you work at one of the rare LCC's (low cost carriers) that treat the employess like humans, (and don't hink those places don't have there problems, look at pay and retirement issues there) management will always ALWAYS try to screw you. I don't care if there is some "rookie" out there who rejects this, I know at that stage I did too, wait a while boy, you WILL see. It's not a bad attitiude, it's called believing in oneself, and thinking that the hard knocks and hard landings we've all endured are worth something, and that it translates into safe operation and prudent judgment in regards to the operation of an aircraft. And those experiences, those skills, all translate into a very valuable commodity. One that is worth something.
On UNIONS
No union is perfect, as a matter of fact, there all VERY imperfect, BUT, it's all about those that volunteer, and if you don't like whats happening at your union work to change it. Don't bitch unless you do something constructive. It's all you got, we live in a world where
profits are always more important than people,
that's the way it is, so the "union" is all we got, management seeks to divide us, and conquer us. Never give in to this, well at least try, as for Woerth, well, the only answer is, and I open this up for debate, how do we "the line pilots" fix these problems?
ALPA has always ingested their youth, they always will until
that paradigm changes. So how can the tail wag the dog, how can the pilots change things for the good of the industry. This is where my limited intellect breaks down. This country bumpkin needs a little help----
IMHO it's gotta take a national seniority list, and an FAR, a new NPRM that says, no carrier may enter into 121 operations, without honoring that national seniority number---
And as long as we are discussing a "NSN" let's talk about the other heretical concept, what is the "MINIMUM" wage a pilot
should be paid?
Think about that?
What is the min that a 121 1900 FO should be paid?
Or mores pacifically, (wow my spelling/typing is really bad) let's break it down by aircraft SEAT, if the a.c. is full, how much should each of those PAX "chip in" to give the CPT and FO per hour to operate that aircraft? what? fo's a buck? capts two? Cpt's a buck "fitty" what should it be?
I say again..anyone anyone?
What do you think?
First things first---AHA!!!!!!
Gearupb-that avatar is fantastic, made my day
Points to Ponder
This goes out to all the young guns with the "gleam"
in their eye who are right now eating mac and cheese,
Ramen, and 4 for a dollar tuna in water...
All I ask, is that when you finally do get your dream shot
at flying the line, don't pay for a type, don't pay for training,
and WORK to make the job that you get (the state of the
profession) better than when you first got hired, that means
stay involved, stay informed, and don't work for less. Instead of the very typical mentality of , to heck with it, I'm out of here soon. OR the "I've got mine" attitude. Just remember, believe in yoreself (and my spelling), - what you do and what you know has worth and value, also remember that unless you work at one of the rare LCC's (low cost carriers) that treat the employess like humans, (and don't hink those places don't have there problems, look at pay and retirement issues there) management will always ALWAYS try to screw you. I don't care if there is some "rookie" out there who rejects this, I know at that stage I did too, wait a while boy, you WILL see. It's not a bad attitiude, it's called believing in oneself, and thinking that the hard knocks and hard landings we've all endured are worth something, and that it translates into safe operation and prudent judgment in regards to the operation of an aircraft. And those experiences, those skills, all translate into a very valuable commodity. One that is worth something.
On UNIONS
No union is perfect, as a matter of fact, there all VERY imperfect, BUT, it's all about those that volunteer, and if you don't like whats happening at your union work to change it. Don't bitch unless you do something constructive. It's all you got, we live in a world where
profits are always more important than people,
that's the way it is, so the "union" is all we got, management seeks to divide us, and conquer us. Never give in to this, well at least try, as for Woerth, well, the only answer is, and I open this up for debate, how do we "the line pilots" fix these problems?
ALPA has always ingested their youth, they always will until
that paradigm changes. So how can the tail wag the dog, how can the pilots change things for the good of the industry. This is where my limited intellect breaks down. This country bumpkin needs a little help----
IMHO it's gotta take a national seniority list, and an FAR, a new NPRM that says, no carrier may enter into 121 operations, without honoring that national seniority number---
And as long as we are discussing a "NSN" let's talk about the other heretical concept, what is the "MINIMUM" wage a pilot
should be paid?
Think about that?
What is the min that a 121 1900 FO should be paid?
Or mores pacifically, (wow my spelling/typing is really bad) let's break it down by aircraft SEAT, if the a.c. is full, how much should each of those PAX "chip in" to give the CPT and FO per hour to operate that aircraft? what? fo's a buck? capts two? Cpt's a buck "fitty" what should it be?
I say again..anyone anyone?
What do you think?
Last edited:
banned username 2
Banned User
- Joined
- Nov 25, 2001
- Posts
- 3,254
Share this page
Latest resources
-
-
-
-
-
AC 90-89C - Amateur-Built Aircraft and Ultralight Flight Testing HandbookAmateur-Built Aircraft and Ultralight Flight Testing Handbook
- Neal
- Updated:
