Airlines in 5 years

[AJL5236]

Just wanted to see where everyone thinks the airlines will be in the next five years. I still hear and read that there will be a shortage of pilots in the future due to others retiring, but right now that is hard to believe. I know some regionals are hiring, but at the same time others are furlouging, and as we all know some of the majors are in trouble. Right now the industry is saturated with pilots. Where do you think the industry will be in 5 years??

 

[T-handle]

There will never be a "shortage of pilots". There are thousands of furloughed airline pilots currently on the streets. If anything, we have too many pilots (for the capacity of flying) at the moment.

Flight schools use that term to lure students in. Even now, big name flight schools still say there is a shortage of pilots despite the forementioned. I don't think anyone knows what's going to happen next month let alone in 5 years. Good luck.

 

[jumppilot]

Althogh I don't know much, I do belive that those of us that stick with aviation will be rewarded....Many people will get getting out due to financial and personal reasons, but those of us who endure the BS will have more jobs in the future.

Just a thought.

 

[MEI96]

Yeah just hang in there. Timing is everything in this industry. Last year I was a portfolio analyst and instructing part time. Now I'm a regional airline pilot earning way less than a portfolio analyst but hey at least I'm happy with what I'm doing.

Things will get better for those that tough it out!

 

[FlyingFarmer]

OH YEAH great Idea!??

Sure---

Tough it out! That's a great idea. Don't pay any attention
to the pay and work rules at your current place of employment
I mean c'mon, it's just some regional right?!?

And soon enough things will turn around and the MAJORS will
start hiring again!!!!!!!!

And then you'll get a job there and leave all the losers behind
RIGHT?

 

[d.fitz]

FlyingFarmer....

You seem a little upset...

Maybe that other guy can give you the name of a good portfolio analyst school.

IMHO, If you hate it maybe you should try something new.. No sense attacking anyone.

 

[jumppilot]

Re: OH YEAH great Idea!??

Sure---

Tough it out! That's a great idea. Don't pay any attention
to the pay and work rules at your current place of employment
I mean c'mon, it's just some regional right?!?

And soon enough things will turn around and the MAJORS will
start hiring again!!!!!!!!

And then you'll get a job there and leave all the losers behind
RIGHT?

If you are so tired of it, get out of it...Unless you never had the foresight to plan on the pay cut and work rules. I will NOT make aviation my primary source of income...It is all about figuring out what else you can do to make money (real estate, computers, etc).

So if you hate it so much, get out.

 

[FlyingFarmer]

"sigh"

Ok,

I'll try to calmy adress each-

First of all, I'm already out, I'm furloughed
from a major. Try saying "if you didn't plan on work rules
and pay cut, then blah blah blah" when you ACTUALLY
have a life, house etc. not living hand to mouth.
If you sense frustation in my post
it's because working at the Mcjob has given me
alot of time to reflect. I imagine alot of what I say
will be lost on most of you, I mean, your a jump pilot,
I've done that job and In some ways I probably MIGHT
have felt like you long ago, you still have that gleem in
your eye, and are thinking, IF ONLY -- I don't know you
so I could be wrong, if I am I'm sorry I've misread you.

but, maybe I can influence just a few.

It's like this guys, a beech 1900 FO's pay
and benefits should follow an even trajectory to that
of a triple 7 Captain. Think about that statement for
a moment and what it means, It means that in order
for that brass ring to be there at the end of the rainbow,
(---but I'm not motivated by dirty soiled money....
I JUST WANT TO FLY ...harp music, trust me you will be at some point when you're on you 100th junior man and you're supposed to go to your engagement party-- whatever----)
anyway sidebar complete, for that brass ring to still be there,
PILOTS have to quit working for less. (It's not just Mesa, someone should break a donkey you know what off in
ALPA Woerth's tail) we all have to stop paying for jobs,
or type ratings, or whatever----- Because what we are all witnessing is the EROSION of the quality of life for all pilots.

SW Kelleher heads take note, how big does your company have to be so that YOU will have the retirement that the Senoir guys at your company have? And how long until you guys are knocked down by the NEXT Low Cost Carrier as your cost and quality of life go (hopefullly) UP. Think it can't happen? three words-

Comair Florida Chautuaqua

err... or was it ASA? No matter, sooner or later EROSION will hit us all. UNLESS.......Bueller Bueller anyone anyone?

 

[dogg]

I think I read somewhere that currently across the board(major/national/regional), there is about 15% over-capacity. At the rate airlines are going, rather than allow the economy to grow into that, they are going to reduce 15% one way or another, which will more than account for the next 7-8 yrs worth of retirement. So with about 10,000 pilots looking for work and more headed that way, I would say that no, there will never be a shortage of qualified pilots. Of course there never has been in the history of the arline business. Of course that is not to say that some day there might be a shortage of pilots that the HR depts at the airlines are willing to hire. There is a vast difference between the two. So if ya keep pluggin away and through the use of a crack pipe and a ouigee board you can come up with what airline HR depts. are looking for you will someday be an airline pilot...Press on and good luck........

 

[jumppilot]

Re: "sigh"

FlyingFarmer,

That was a good post. Sorry if my tone of my post seemed a little harsh, I guess you and I are on different extremes.

Your logic did not escape me...I remember how happy I was when I got my first CFI job....Then after two years, multiple students and being stuck, the job lost its luster and I saw myself being more pissed off than happy.

I know being an airline pilot will be that way too, unfortunatley. I suspose it is all in the attitude.