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Airline Profitablility

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bart

Decader
Joined
Nov 26, 2001
Posts
861
Anyone done some hardnose analysis as to why the connection and discount airlines are making profits and and the majors are bleeding cash like there is no tomorrow?

From what I can tell having looked at 5 10Ks is that the majors have huge overhead and administrative costs, where the others do not. Sure the majors pay more for labor, but it appears that flight crew pay is in line on a seat mile basis. Why is it that the majors seem to need 1.7 people to generate the same amount of revenue the discount and regionals generate with 1 person? Seems the majors are either somehow subsidizing the others somehow or they need to learn a lesson in cost control from them.
 
similar

How can you say UAL $900 per hour cockpit cost on the A-320 is comparable to the Jet Blue $400 per hour or AWA $540 per hour.
The majors also have too many differenct types of airplanes, typically 10% of their crewmembers are off line training while drawing full pay and beneifts, at Jet Blue and SWA they are off line for training around 2% of the time. UAL will come in line wiht thier 29% pay cut and the cut in guarented hours back to 60.
 
I looked at JetBlue's 10K and its hard to believe they're in the same industry as United.

SWA and JetBlue have a much more efficient operation in pretty much all respects. I don't think you can say its any one thing.
 
Re: similar

pilotyip said:
How can you say UAL $900 per hour cockpit cost on the A-320 is comparable to the Jet Blue $400 per hour or AWA $540 per hour.
The majors also have too many differenct types of airplanes, typically 10% of their crewmembers are off line training while drawing full pay and beneifts, at Jet Blue and SWA they are off line for training around 2% of the time. UAL will come in line wiht thier 29% pay cut and the cut in guarented hours back to 60.
If I'm not mistaken, Jet Blue isn't actually paying for their aircraft or maintenance yet. It was part of the deal they got with Airbus. Even though their costs will remain lower than UA, once they start actually paying for aircraft & mx, their costs will fall more in line with the rest of the industry. Right now it's apples and oranges.
 
I have posted the following before, and I apologize if it bores anyone, but it reflects my take on the low cost carriers, and the effect that they are having on the industry and our profession.

There are many reasons that the low cost carriers are making money, and the main one is cost savings. Many have one fleet type, efficient workforces, innovative leadership, etc. However, I don't think that it can be denied that the main cost savings, and therefore the main reason that they are making money is the fact that they pay their employees so much less than established carriers. While other things certainly factor into the equasion, it cannot be denied that the largest cost savings low fare airlines enjoy come from an airlines largest expense...labor. I will explain below. I have used airtran in my analysis, but the numbers are similar with any of the discount carriers.

An airline's largest expense is emplyee wages, and it is here that low fare airlines gain the largest advantage. Savings from aforementioned methods, while they might be admirable, are not nearly as signifigant as the savings gained from lower wages. I will demonstrate using comparisons between Delta and Airtran. However, one can use just about any major and any low-cost airline, and get similar numbers. These numbers come from the annual reports. It is public information, and easy to obtain.

Some have mentioned that Airtran saves money because of a fuel-efficient fleet. While I grant that the 717 is a cool airplane, it does not quite give them a cost advantage on fuel. In 2001, delta hedged fuel, and as a result, spent an average of 68.6 cents per gallon. Airtran, on the other hand, spent 93.85 cents per gallon. Fuel made up 11.7% of Delta's total expenses, while fuel made up 22.14% of airtran's. As you see, airtran does not have a cost advatage because of fuel. As a matter of fact, Delta does.

Some also mention that the fact that airtran bought inexpensive airplanes gives them a financial and cost advantage over Delta. First of all, that is not necessarily true due to higher maintanence costs of older airplanes. Secondly, no matter how cheap the airplanes are, airtran leveraged themselves very heavily to get them. As a result, their debt to equity ratio is 7.91 (ouch). Delta's is 2.77 (not to good either, but a lot better than 7.91). (I researched these numbers a while ago. They have changed, but not signifigantly). As a result, airtran does not enjoy a cost advantage on interest payments, either. Delta has a cost advantage here, too.

Others speak of a high percentage of passengers booking through FL's website. That is correct, and they are correct that that does save money. Not as much as one would think, however. They still have to pay high CRS (computer reservation fees), and Delta has significantly cut TA commissions. Also, we are selling a lot through Delta.com. Not as much as FL, but we are catching up. As a matter of fact, when you add advertising costs to distribution costs (what I believe represents to total cost of selling a ticket), you will find that both airlines spend roughly 7% of total expenses. Not much of a cost saving here.


I will grant you that there are other cost saving factors, but none are enormously significant.

So how does airtran and others enjoy such a huge cost advantage? They pay their employees less. In 2001, employee salaries and related costs made up 39.56% of Delta's total expenses. At airtran, only 25.27% of total expenses were spent on employees. It is is a difference, and it is significant. I will say it again, salaries are an airline's largest cost (by far), and low fare airlines pay much less in salary than the majors do. It is for this reason that they have such a cost advantage, and for this reason that they are able to offer such low fares. To assume otherwise is erroneous.



Some would respond that DAL and airlines like them pay their employees too much. They may be correct. But I would hope that fellow pilots wouldn't join in that chorus. After all, when our pay goes down, others will as well, throughout the industry. I think most will agree that with a similar price, most low-fare airlines would have a difficult time competing with the schedules, routes, size, and FF programs of the majors. In order to preserve their ability to offer lower-priced tickets, they will have to maintain their cost advantage. I hope I have illustrated the major factor behind that advatage.

To those who find us greedy and rejoice in the fact that we may be asked for concessions, please keep in mind that as soon as we cut our labor expenses, other airlines will have to do the same, or lose their largest competitive advantage. The only reason they enjoy the salaries they have is the we earn the salaries we do. If we give them up, it will be a race to the bottom. Where will it end? After all, someone (by default) will have to be the highest paid, and the media, politicians, and mgts will always point to that airline and lament how much higher their costs are than the rest of the industry's. I ask again...where will it end?

I would think that others in this profession would root (as I always have) for every pilot group to fight for higher, rather than lower salaries. Unfortunately, this does not always seem to be the case, as I rarely seem to hear the words "Delta pilot" anymore without the word "greedy" mentioned in the same breath.

I hope that answered your question, and I apologize for the rather lengthy post. However, I am very concerned about the future of our profession, and think that it is time people faced the current trends in the industry, and the negative pressure they put on our careers.
 
fdj,

Exactly how much revenue did you personally generate for Delta airlines last year ?

Until you can answer this question, rationalizing how much an airline pilot should be paid will be completely subjective.
 
ExAF,
....yes, you are mistaken....
Or maybe you were just kidding. But in any case, there are no free Airbus A-320's. If there were, I'd start a frickin' airline.
 
Ex AF:
If I'm not mistaken, Jet Blue isn't actually paying for their aircraft or maintenance yet. It was part of the deal they got with Airbus.

Yes, you are mistaken. We've tried to put this rumor to bed before, but I figure that many in the industry just want to hang on to a thought that makes the current situation seem better.

JetBlue is paying for their aircraft. We did not get a sweetheart deal on the cost of our jets, but pay a fair price. Most of our jets are purchased outright. Approximately 25% of our fleet is purchased and then resold to a leasing company, then leased back for our use. This maximizes the amount of tax advantages for leased vs. purchased jets.

Yes, we are paying for much of our maintenance. Yes, our jets are still in their warranty life, so some of the maintenance issues are not yet borne by the company, so that cost will definately increase over time. While we have not had a jet go to D check, we routinely send them to C checks down in sunny New Orleans.

As for FlyDeltasJets, I agree with a point he makes. Delta, or most majors for that matter, have a much better negotiating standpoint to work the fuel hedges. I do not know our exact cost for fuel per gallon, but know enough to say that Delta's price is significantly better than ours.

I do, however, dispute a couple of his points. First, computer reservations only cost you a bunch of money if you don't own the system that the reservations are made on. We do, and the cost of a computer reservation is a significant savings for us. Last I heard, we are getting about 60% of our business from internet bookings, which saves a bundle. Technology helps again, and the public is willing to use this system to their advantage (remember--they save a few dollars by booking on the web).

As for labor costs, yes, I agree that the statistics provided are significant. However, lets look at the disparity another way. Delta's labor costs are 15% higher than JetBlue's. Are you saying that a 15% difference accounts for the millions of dollars lost daily? Certainly, there are other costs within Delta that contribute to the overall cash flow picture and cost structure.

My final point is one I've made repeatedly; the main reason the majors are fairing poorly is our crappy economy--while there are many ways that companies can improve their bottom line (not limited to airlines), it is terribly difficult to make money in one of the worst and longest recessions in recent history.

My best to our friends in the industry--hang tough.
 
As a long-time reader of this board, it's obvious what FDJ's rEAL beef is with Air Tran. It sort of takes a little edge off his argument. Maybe picking a different carrier to "compare" DAL with and accuse of putting negative pressure on the industry would, at least, give the appearance of being a little more credible.

Others have produced valid arguments that while labor costs are a significant percentage of an airline's expenses, they are only a piece of the total picture. There was a post by AAFlyer here that cited an example of what effect totally eliminating pilot costs would have on CSMs.

This is a highly emotional issue, and individual emotions will cloud individual perceptions. So bart, that's why I doubt you'll get a lot of real information here. Why, I think someone even mentioned that jetBlue isn't paying for their airplanes. That one won't die, either.
 
LLC carriers fly cherry picked, high density routes with simple fleets and are domestic carriers almost exclusively. The large traditional majors have mature workforces (read unionized), are international airlines, and fly to many times the number of destinations than the LLC carriers do with much more diverse fleets.
 
Trainer,

The reason I chose airtran was that my post was a repeat of research I had done during a debate I had on another board with an airtran flight attendant. As I stated, you could take the numbers for any lowcost carrier, and the results would be comparable. I don't have the time right now, but I will one day look into the numbers for some of the other carriers.

P.S.
I did not intend to insult the pilots of any carrier. I simply posted a comparison of different costs based on public information. If that was offensive, than perhaps we are all getting a bit thin-skinned. I am worried about wage pressures we are undeniably facing, and I think that those pressures should be rationally discussed.


RjCap,

Silly rebuttal. I did not say whether I was overpaid or underpaid. I did not intend to start a debate about what we are worth. I answered a question about why some airlines were faring better than others and discussed relative salaries. What was your point?
 
fdj,

I would think that others in this profession would root (as I always have) for every pilot group to fight for higher, rather than lower salaries. Unfortunately, this does not always seem to be the case, as I rarely seem to hear the words "Delta pilot" anymore without the word "greedy" mentioned in the same breath.

Sounds to me like your rationalizing your pay rates.



Silly rebuttal. I did not say whether I was overpaid or underpaid. I did not intend to start a debate about what we are worth. I answered a question about why some airlines were faring better than others and discussed relative salaries. What was your point?

How about answering my question instead of dismissing it as silly.


Your arrogance is showing.
 
rjcap.....just stop

rjcap,

You are starting to throw defensive puches when he is being very professional. Call him arrogant? Actually, I view it as informative, intelligent, and inclusive discussion.

There are no egos going on in his commentary, just a discussion and a few statements.

Go pick a fight somewhere else. Hell, go to an RJDC meeting, it's bound to be a defensive bunch??? Your post rings of frustration and personal dissatisfaction. This is not a heated discussion.

Fly safe!

SEE YA!
 
I think that the secret to the LCC's success is that they have been tightly focused on their market . They make no attempt to be "global", or even to serve every city in the country. They appear to care more about profit than market share, or market dominance. The money losing majors have focused on being all things to all people and on being the dominate carrier in their region. While AMR and UAL were trying to acquire TWA and Airways, SWA was only looking to add a few well researched cities and JetBlue was just looking at city pairs in which they could make money.

For those who want to blame the overpaid, arrogant pilots at the money losing majors, I say shame on you. In no case did the pilots choose the business structure of their employer or the market in which their employer choose to focus.

The economy suffers from a fairly regular cycle and most major airlines have choosen to build their cost structure on the revenues produced during boom cycles. SWA and other LCC's have choosen to build their business around the revenues available during the downside of the cycles. If the other majors saved the cash they made during the boom (instead of attempting mergers, etc) they could most likely survive the busts.

The only real losers in the latest shake ups (besides us airline employees) will be the citizens of smaller cities that loose service because they can't fill up a 737 ten times a day, or find themselves paying thousands instead of hundreds for a ticket because their city doesn't fit into a LCC's structure.

Some will say that RJ's allow service to those smaller locations, but I don't see any carrier willing to fly those runs outside of a major carriers umbrella. Which brings me to the second part of the original question. The regionals are making money, but they do so by using the good name of their major carrier affiliate/owner. It only takes fairly simple math to come to the conclusion that an RJ crew makes about as much per seat as does the mainline aircraft, so they don't really have a crew wage advantage. I would venture to guess that Johnny O would have already started a non-affiliated RJ only carrier if he thought he could make money by doing so. The costs of building a stand alone system (g.s.equipment, gate space, counterspace, reservation system, advertising, CSA's, rampers, etc) would far overcome the supposed advantage of 15% lower labor costs.

Bottom line. The customer is currently unwilling to pay for the services that the old style major carriers provide. Hopefully someday soon, the customer will decide that once again, he is willing to pay for seamless travel from podunk to paduca.

regards,
8N
 
While I believe open debate over any subject is healthy, I agree with enigma.

We spend way too much time jealously defending our airlines, our airplanes, our salaries and our own egos. 5 years ago everyone wanted the coveted UAL or DAL brass ring, and we so admired the stature of those with the biggest paycheck. Those who made it to those lofty positions began to feel they were threatened by the LLC's, (&WO's and CC's) their airplanes AND their lower salaries. So while the unions were working to limit Major Mgmt. in terms of scope "expansion," those LLC's and contract carriers kept benefiting.

During all of this, how many of us can say that we had any control over the doings of management - at any of our airlines? Very few of you put any real, lasting pressure on our companies, and we only made ourselves out to be uncooperative and selfish - not the team players many have AGREED to be at the LLC's. So management helped to make failure a certainty. They mismanaged the business so well, that the majority of pilot positions will pay significantly less than they did 5 years ago, if they even exist anymore.

So what do we do? We start pointing our fingers at one another and blaming those who fly for less money (for taking the job that was available at the time) for ruining the industry. Now even the RJ pilots have become egomaniacs, believing they are the fresh, young trailblazers of the future of aviation. Many RJ pilots act like they are the stars of the industry, blaming majors pilots for trying to stop them from taking over the world.

And all the while none of you have any real control over the real state of the industry or where it will be in 5 years. You may just be lucky enough to still be flying (and paid for it) at a company that makes money. And if you thing go well for you, it still doesn't make any of you more important than the rest. So why not start relating to each other realistically. You're all aviation employees who, by luck or fate, are enjoying or suffering from the decisions of management and the state of our economy. Even you who partially OWN your companies could not stop management from spending away your destinies, which relegates your status to EMPLOYEE only, in my book.

Of course, many will just keep wishing that this constant whining and debating will bring back the past. Some of you will even think that defending your RJ from the tyrade of a disappointed 757 furloughee will somehow ensure your future in aviation. But, just like today is different from yesterday, tomorrow may be nothing like you expect. Good Luck!

Can anyone answer this question? Why is it that doctors and lawyers invest so much into their educations and (as a rule) make more than enough money for it to be worth it, while pilots tend to spend more each year on their education, then take longer and longer to pay it off? What is the difference in the influence WE have over our industry and THEY have over theirs that they (generally) seem to enjoy such a return on their investment?
 
points made

There were a number of good points made in this thread, none more important than the last-- that the customer is unwilling to pay past a certain level.
In the end, the customer must support whatever cost structure or route structure you have. If they will not, it will make little difference what your labor contract says.

Secondly, this board always thinks in terms of pilot costs only when looking at the unionized work force. the fact is that it goes will past that point. FA labor costs, maintenance labor costs, CSR labor costs, and eventually management costs, will all be higher. Check things like health and benefit costs as well.

Buying power issues usually go to the majors, but to get them often calls for longer term agreements and reduced flexibility.

Complexity often hurts majors as they have to constantly be working on feed issues that ripple through the structure. LCC look more just to the route.

To me thinking that you determine what you deserve is pretty ludicrous. It is that conflict between market value, fitting into a cost structure, and labor contracts is always the battle.
 
The comparison of other "professionals" pay (in this case doctors and lawyers) to airline pilots pay is in my opimion a bad one. A doctor or lawyer is paid for individual billable hours devoted to an individual client. An airline piots salary is paid regardless whether the plane is empty or full, thus to justify a comparable salary, you have to have butts in the seat, period. To get butts in the seat you have to offer, an average product, with below average prices, minimum travel restrictions, and more point to point flying. The current Major airline business model does not support this IF a low cost alternative exists. Welcome to capitalism.

I still maintain that I would rather work for a less than "industry standard" wage (whatever that happens to mean right now), and see a career without furloughs (i.e. Southwest) than have that "industry leading" wage contract and be subject to furloughs and the inability for business leaders to wrestle the program year in and year out. I DO NOT support poverty wages that many regionals pay, but the pay at my particular company for pilots IS NOT poverty wages. I'm sorry if some feel we are dragging the industry down... but I disagree with that assessment and stand by our current contract, and future business viability, and that my friends is what is important to me in the brief time I have on this planet, more so than some other attitudes I have seen.
 

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