Airline pilot shortage; Kit Darby still at it!

[radarlove]

http://www.aero-tv.net/index.cfm?videoid=92fb493b-a494-4d9e-b19c-93d1dd1fc0aa

A boring presentation, but I couldn't stop watching. This numbnut keeps talking about the lack of qualified pilots, how college training doesn't prepare for airline work, it's just sickening.

Yeah, the problem is that there aren't enough qualified pilot applicants. That's the problem! We need to make more and better applicants for the airlines!

I think the flight colleges are off in a weird world of unreality. Kit Darby has been preaching "Impending pilot crunch" for more than 20 years now and they're still (still!) biting.

Their solutions? "Encourage career instructors with better pay and benefits", "Find ways of getting retired airline pilots interested in training." "End users (airlines) are going to have to share in this new cost"

I can't go on. What a chump.

Edit: it's not Kit Darby talking, it's some weird guy who looks like he broke in at Watergate. But Kit Darby was a featured speaker.

 

[tie1on]

this guy is a real tool. promoting his own line of bulls**t. as always. he has lost touch of reality.

 

[luckytohaveajob]

There is a shortage of pilots just like there was a shortage of workers who built the Great Wall of China.

There is never a shortage of pilots, just a lowering of the standards. 250 hours commercial pilots will line up all night long to get a flying job, just like people who line up for iPods.

Give me a break on this pilot shortage. And give me a break about the high retirement numbers coming! The old will have to die in the cockpit to be removed.

 

[Jetjockey]

No, it should read like this.

Pilot job Shortage.
your just not reading the fine print.

 

[CoolSidePillow]

United States of America

it used to be a pretty good place to live

 

[Mamma]

What is he talking about! I'll bet there is a HUGE drop in interest going on right now. The costs are getting out of hand and once upon a time it used to be worth it to shell out a good amount of dough for your ratings. You suffer through the 135 and regional times and then make it "big" in the majors. Well, I think those days are gone. The airlines via ATA and Air Conference have shot themselves in the foot in regards to the future. They have lowered expectations to a degree that this career is not worth the costs. Less than a decade ago most pilots scoffed at a career with SWA. Management at the majors begged their pilots to accept that payscale and the pilots scoffed. Then bankruptcy courts took them below SWA. Now everyone wants SWA wages and management says that is way too high and we must accept lower. Who wants to deal with that? Your debt will never get paid off and your life will suck. Also, why would a military guy quit active duty before 20 years to take such a low paying major job? A major in the Air Force is bringing down well over 100K with the bonus...why would they want to go to an airline and make only 30K-70K, live out of a suitcase and get treated like a cost unit by management??? I know a ton of guys at Alaska looking for work elsewhere. This job is not the job it used to be. Furloughs and bankruptcy were always a part of the equation but it was possible to start over and make over 100K after a few years. Not anymore. Starting over is not possible for many people well into their thirties and forties. Kids, college and bills necessitate a job outside aviation unless you want to settle for VA rates. I think there will be a shortage down the road...a shortage of QUALITY professional pilots that the airlines need to safely fly.
As far as the age 65 thing goes, as much as I don't like it, many of those guys lost everything with the draconian bankruptcy courts. They need to look out for number one right now. I cannot fault them even though it hurts me. I fault the Alaska old timers because they stick around for fun. They have a fully funded pension and can retire. Some will but many won't.
I still like the flying but this job kind of sucks right now in regards to everything else and I see it getting a lot worse.

 

[Lear70]

Well-said.

Unfortunately, even with the huge slump in new pilot entrants into the workforce, you won't see a major "shortage" of pilots, especially as airlines across the U.S. pull down capacity in an effort to make money.

The ONLY way this career will work is IF the government re-regulates the industry, treating it as the commodity it is. Until then, you'll get the repeating cycle of profit/bankruptcy/employee raping, as the pay and benefits become less and less.

Even looking 20-30 years down the road, unless things change dramatically for the U.S. in terms of finances, demand will NEVER come back up. The middle class has been taking home less and less every year when adjusted for inflation. It's already starting to show: leisure travel is off significantly. Business travel is also off as better and better video conferencing options become available.

As always, the only airlines that will hurt for qualified applicants are the regionals that barely pay above the poverty line for new-hire F/O's and the overseas gigs where they can't train enough of their own to satisfy growing travel demand. In the future, I see that pay coming up with the lack of entry-level pilots, but that's going to take another 10 years to start happening, too, and I don't ever see the overseas gigs getting realistic with the pay AND time off required to take it as a commuting option.

No U.S. major has ever had a "pilot shortage" in the last 2 or 3 decades. I don't think Kit Darby claims that they have, either... He never says "major", he just says "airline pilot shortage".

 

[pilotyip]

there is one overseas if you have a type in anything built in the last 15 years

 

[Vingus]

The lesson I got out of that was go military.

 

[Guitar Guy]

Kit Darby is a salesman and he's simply selling his product. Of course he's going to say that there is a pilot shortage and that he, hallelujah, can you lead to the promised land of milk and honey as a highly-paid professional pilot. All you have to do is buy his product.

And, Kit, on a personal note: none of us at NetJets will ever forget how you sat across the table from us in negotiations and attempted to help sell us an insulting contract.

 

[pilotyip]

no security

The lesson I got out of that was go military.

Right now there is conflict going on, they need pilots. However the military is as fickle as any employer. Look at what happened after WWII, Korea, Vietnam, Gulf I, reduction in force. To save money we get rid of wings and squadrons. Don't need as many pilots, so hard choices have to be made. These decisions are always hardest on the ones not making the decision, of course. Talk to the pilots who flew in Vietnam on what happened between 1975 and 1980. I put in 11 years was planning on a career and was told in 1975, after evacuating Vietnam the previous spring, your services are no longer needed. Found a reserve squadron and said good-bye.

 

[ACL65PILOT]

I can tell you that DAL felt that toward the end of their hiring this year, there was a shortage of qualified applicants. Whatever that means, that is what I was told.

 

[Lear70]

I can tell you that DAL felt that toward the end of their hiring this year, there was a shortage of qualified applicants. Whatever that means, that is what I was told.

Unlikely...

Not that you weren't told that, but more than likely their idea of "qualified" was half a dozen internal recommendations, previous check airman experience, and 10,000+ total time, 5,000+ turbine PIC.

Last I heard, they had over 10,000 applications that met the minimums, over half of which were from AirTran/ATA/Aloha/JB/Frontier/Spirit/SkyBus/Virgin pilots, many of which had thousands of PIC Turbine hours Part 121 from the regionals, not to mention the regional CA's who have been trying to get in for years...

Unqualified, I'm certain...

 

[imacdog]

Unlikely...

Not that you weren't told that, but more than likely their idea of "qualified" was half a dozen internal recommendations, previous check airman experience, and 10,000+ total time, 5,000+ turbine PIC.

Last I heard, they had over 10,000 applications that met the minimums, over half of which were from AirTran/ATA/Aloha/JB/Frontier/Spirit/SkyBus/Virgin pilots, many of which had thousands of PIC Turbine hours Part 121 from the regionals, not to mention the regional CA's who have been trying to get in for years...

Unqualified, I'm certain...

Exactly. There are thousands of pilots out there capable of doing the job well. Anyone with a little experience and the desire and motivation to succeed could could easily fly for any company. Especially the airlines where the pilots do not need to demonstrate any customer service ability. The idea of a huge looming pilot shortage is a fairy tale designed to get Kit more money. That people still pay him for his services is an indication of how out of touch with reality people are.

 

[HalinTexas]

If there were a true pilot shortage, I'd have a job to replace the one I lost in April.

Can't find a job in this country that pays more than $40K per year. Regionals are paying $20K. I was making $80K as an FO at ATA, not a high payscale.

Don't know anyone in the corp. world to get an interview.

The fracs aren't hiring right now.

I'm DO of a crappy little startup, still awaiting cert. Haven't flown since March. Apps out all over the place, and it looks like I might be going to Asia. Just trying to keep my house.

 

[414Flyer]

Kit once tried to bribe/entice someone that had a free interview website, to take the site down.

 

[Whine Lover]

Kit is a D!CK...I had a conversation with him about 10 years ago.

The recently revealed part about him sitting on Management's side of the table during negotiations makes him a DOUBLE-SUPER-SECRET-D!CK.

However, he's a smart D!CK who has figured out how to steal candy from Babies....Those dumb kids (that we all once were ) with Shiny Jet Syndrome.

I think his Mother is a Lesbian...Not that there is anything wrong with that.


YKMKR

 

[pilotyip]

say what you want, but a lot of pilots got their interview and job offer at FedEx, UPS, SWA, DAL, UAL, NWA with a contact that started at one of his job fairs

 

[DR Beeper]

Job Fairs

say what you want, but a lot of pilots got their interview and job offer at FedEx, UPS, SWA, DAL, UAL, NWA with a contact that started at one of his job fairs

If you are coming off active duty (or trying to), These rip off job fairs are the best way to enter the market and get exposure to the "world". Kit is just capitalizing (sp?) on the market for all wanna be airline pilots. The "pilot shortage" false advertising targets those trying to break into an aviation career.

I did not get an interview (at UPS) from one of his job fairs, however, 12 years later, my attendence verified my interest in the company. Take it for what it's worth.

 

[radarlove]

I posted the video because of the complete disconnect with reality they live under. There is no shortage of pilots, there never has been and there never will.

The military has to resort to not much more than throwing resumes down the stairs to weed out the folks who are qualified, the majors can set the bar so high that it takes 20 years to reach it...

Flying is like acting. There isn't a dearth of aspiring actors, spending their own money on headshots and travel to auditions, because they want the career. Same with flying; many think it's one of the coolest jobs out there (I do, anyway). I used to do it for free.

The point about flying a Seminole around being different than flying right-seat in an EFIS-equipped sim also missed the point. If the airlines thought that EFIS experience in a sim was so important, they would use that as a hiring criteria.

Instead, they use PIC time, expecially PIC time in something interesting, like a twin, or a jet.

And the guy misses the point about hiring experienced instructors. Getting "instructed" isn't the valuable part of a pilot career, it's the experience that counts. Once you've soloed, how important is instruction? Ok, maybe instrument basics, then what?

 

[hoover]

I think you need to go back and actually WATCH the video. The guy was not talking about a pilot shortage now. He was talking about future trends if current trends continue.

What he was saying is that University training programs do not produce the kind of pilot that the air carriers are looking for: crewmembers on a large multicrew turbine powered transport aircraft. This is largely due to: 1) the universities being ill-equipped (aircraft, simulators) to produce such pilots, 2) the lack of resources that the average person has to put toward such an endeavor, 3) the lack of return on investment (who wants to invest 120 to 180K on flight training and a four year degree, when there are a lot easier and less costly ways to earn a comparable wage?), and 4) a shortage of instructors (if you put all of the aforementioned resources into training and a degree, would you want to work as an instructor, for instructor pay?).

You've already seen a bit of that shortage. As recently as a few months ago, regionals were hiring anyone with a CP-MEL.

It's also going on, to a greater extent, in the aviation mechanic market. People who graduate A&P schools are goingto work as mechanics in non-aviation sectors because they can make more money and have a better quality of life.

Again, this isn't about a current shortage of pilots. It's about what will happen if current trends continue unchanged. Think about it: Why would any young man or woman today consider aviation as a career when there are easier ways to 1) earn more money, 2) have a better quality of life, 3) generally get a better return on their investment. I'm sure there are a few out there who will do it regardless of the cost, but if my kids ever come to me and say "I want to be a pilot," I'll tell them to start saving or buy lottery tickets, because I won't be able to finance it.

If things do not change (and truth be told I don't think that they will) I foresee a day when U.S. air carriers will be sponsoring their own trainees, Lufthansa style.

 

[imacdog]

I think you need to go back and actually WATCH the video. The guy was not talking about a pilot shortage now. He was talking about future trends if current trends continue.

What he was saying is that University training programs do not produce the kind of pilot that the air carriers are looking for: crewmembers on a large multicrew turbine powered transport aircraft. This is largely due to: 1) the universities being ill-equipped (aircraft, simulators) to produce such pilots, 2) the lack of resources that the average person has to put toward such an endeavor, 3) the lack of return on investment (who wants to invest 120 to 180K on flight training and a four year degree, when there are a lot easier and less costly ways to earn a comparable wage?), and 4) a shortage of instructors (if you put all of the aforementioned resources into training and a degree, would you want to work as an instructor, for instructor pay?).

You've already seen a bit of that shortage. As recently as a few months ago, regionals were hiring anyone with a CP-MEL.

It's also going on, to a greater extent, in the aviation mechanic market. People who graduate A&P schools are goingto work as mechanics in non-aviation sectors because they can make more money and have a better quality of life.

Again, this isn't about a current shortage of pilots. It's about what will happen if current trends continue unchanged. Think about it: Why would any young man or woman today consider aviation as a career when there are easier ways to 1) earn more money, 2) have a better quality of life, 3) generally get a better return on their investment. I'm sure there are a few out there who will do it regardless of the cost, but if my kids ever come to me and say "I want to be a pilot," I'll tell them to start saving or buy lottery tickets, because I won't be able to finance it.

If things do not change (and truth be told I don't think that they will) I foresee a day when U.S. air carriers will be sponsoring their own trainees, Lufthansa style.

This is what they've always been saying!!! "Hey guys the shortage is right around the corner! Just give me your credit card number and I'll feed you whatever information you want to hear!"

Of course the universities don't produce major-qualified pilots! They produce pilots who are ready to enter the real world of aviation so they can build experience and eventually become a pilot with a high degree of responsibility. Tell me, did the universities produce 727 pilots in the 70's? No? Please, stop buying into Kit's bullcrap. There is no shortage and there never will be.

 

[Joblu]

Kit Darby is the president of Aviation Information Resources (AIR, Inc.). Currently a B767 captain with United Airlines, Mr. Darby has interviewed 20 times with 16 different airlines and worked with three majors and one national airline since 1978.


Impressive, 20 times with 16 Airlines? If I knew that a career in aviation was like that when I started this journey I would have chosen another career.

A bud of mine once sat in his JS and he told me he was a complete @sshole to everyone.

What a scumbag!

 

[MJ42]

Kit Darby is the president of Aviation Information Resources (AIR, Inc.). Currently a FIRED(not retired)B767 captain with United Airlines, Mr. Darby has interviewed 20 times with 16 different airlines and worked with three majors and one national airline since 1978.


Impressive, 20 times with 16 Airlines? If I knew that a career in aviation was like that when I started this journey I would have chosen another career.

A bud of mine once sat in his JS and he told me he was a complete @sshole to everyone.

What a scumbag!

The truth in red.

 

[Fozzy]

And, Kit, on a personal note: none of us at NetJets will ever forget how you sat across the table from us in negotiations and attempted to help sell us an insulting contract.

Amen Guitar! You beat me to the punch. Kit is a management tool on top of being just plain annoying. I personally hope his company goes under ASAP.
You get that Kit, you are a scumbag.

 

[pilotyip]

management tool?

Amen Guitar! You beat me to the punch. Kit is a management tool on top of being just plain annoying. I personally hope his company goes under ASAP.
You get that Kit, you are a scumbag.

and without managemnt tools there woud be no flying jobs. kinda like male and female you need most pieces to produce something.

 

[skyward80]

There's a shortage of experienced pilots willing to work for beans. That's the truth. Got plenty of experienced guys out there looking for decent pay though. The regionals keep having to lower their experience requirements because people generally aren't enthusiastic about living off food stamps. Not trying to make this about the regionals. Just using them as an example.

If you believe there is a shortage, let me tell you that we are not, in fact, in a recession. Also, I have a solar-powered flashlight to sell you.

Skyward80

 

[radarlove]

I think you need to go back and actually WATCH the video.

Watched the whole thing there, big boy. Boring and stupid and the guy talking doesn't get it, fo' sho.

You can't project trends out forever, and that is the point of 95% of the people who have posted in this thread. The impending doom of a looming pilot shortage has been talked about since before Eastern, Pan Am, Midway, Braniff all went under.

There is no impending doom. There will always be more pilot wannabes than good paying jobs for them. At times, there will be so many more wannabes than jobs that pilots will pay for their own training.

At times, this won't be necessary. But at no time will the airlines suddenty stop violently and cease expanding because there were no pilots to sit in the seats.

Now, in India this is happening, they've eaten their seed-corn and sucked all of the flight instructors up into the new regionals and are recruiting overseas. India has a very short aviation history and as you watch, the wannabes will flood flight schools and the overseas recruitment will stop.

There is not, and has never been a lack of training infrastructure in the US.

 

[BoilerUP]

Tell me, did the universities produce 727 pilots in the 70's?

Actually, Purdue had some graduates hired on with American back in the 70s as 727 FEs...and a few other graduates by some small Texas airline, I think it was named Southwest.

They even had a program with Ryan International for 727 FEs (if not also FOs) through the late 90s.

Don't mistake me...I'm not trying to brag about the past at my alma-mater and I agree 100% with you that universities aren't equipped to groom 22 year old graduates into competent, knowledgeable, experienced narrowbody pilots. But yes, there were some university grads that went straight to narrowbody airplanes in the 70s.

And I agree 100% with whoever said there is no lack of pilots, only a lack of pilots willing to work for the current offered compensation and lifestyle.

 

[inline]

United States of America

it used to be a pretty good place to live

Then why don't you move?