well....
well.... in all fairness, the apples-to-apples comparison of seeking a Guard slot vs OTS slot can become a wash depending on your end goal. If your incentive is to have a guranteed airframe (which is my incentive) that becomes a wash in so far as you have much less chance of getting a Guard slot off-the-street as it is than just plain getting a pilot slot thru OTS. At least that has been my experience, which I will submit as the rule, the exception being getting hired off-the-street with non-prior. I'm open to argue that to the death too...you'd be amazed the loads of intel one gathers in years of talking to pilots, commanders and other applicants

....not to mention the interviews
So if airframe is not of concern and one has virtually no connections to speak of (i.e. one is not enlisted with the unit or one is not a legacy case) I would highly recommend getting the package prepared, tagged bagged and mailed to the OTS board.
HPaul is right on the money about airframes in the active duty pool, for the most part there is a 20% rule for those who will get to track T-38 (those who will basicaly track fighter/bomber for Phase III). Out of a class of 25 that's 5 folks, and THAT is best-case scenario; if you look at the track select class after class after class you will see that more often than not the number is below 5. HP also correctly pointed out that even if T-1 is the way to go for you, the contention of getting the airframe you want can also be a little bitch.
BTW, took out the helo track and T-44's (-130 bound) for the sake of the bigger argument..but those are also in the pool.
There are a lot of people who do not get what they wanted out of track select,(think about about ranks #4,#5 and #6 on that list;Mr. #25 doesn't give a sh3t, he's happy they still let him fly, but them three? you bet your ass they're not happy campers on track night..not to even mention that they fighter Qualed too!..buddy of mine just went thru that) most keep it to themselves (thats the active for ya) but it goes on more often than you'll be able to ascertain thru word of mouth. And since the commitment is nominally 12 years full time (10 on paper plus the UPT part) and you can't cross-train anymore (the practice of re-tracking to a platform that would take you from heavies to fighters and vice-versa), then not getting a Guard slot doesn't seem too bad after all all, at least you still can pursue whatever the heck you want, primarily applying again for the next Guard board. The point is to FIRST set up what your choices are, what works for ya and what does not.
If all you want is to fly, period, then you're a prime candidate to OTS, if you are more on the lines of "fly ______ or not fly AF at all" then the Guard could be an option along with OTS provided you were ok with the gamble. Good luck