Age 60 rule--SWA, Fedex and UPS hiring

[FlyBoeingJets]

Just to clarify. Age 60 rule changes will affect SWA hiring by about 150 per year. We are hiring 350-500 per year now. Capt upgrades are a different story.


Not flamebait!!-- How will FedEx and UPS hiring be affected if over 60 guys can jump off the panel back to Capt or FO? How many over 60 guys are still on the list at FedEx and UPS?


I'm assuming the over 60 guys recently retired and off the property don't get a chance to come back. That could be a wrong assumption as they might get to come back on the bottom of the FO list at one or more carriers.

 

[FNG_that's me]

Not flamebait!!-- How will FedEx and UPS hiring be affected if over 60 guys can jump off the panel back to Capt or FO? How many over 60 guys are still on the list at FedEx and UPS?

FBJ,

Great mindbender here. This is the heart of why I don't think the age will change anytime soon. It is a nightmare for the companies from a scheduling and payroll perspective.

1. Imagine that you're a 61 y/o FO who isn't permitted to fly your line because the captain is over 60. How pissed are you? This leads to unhappiness for everyone. Do you have to fly a 'less senior' line while your cherry line gets flown by some new guy? Do you demand pay protection and to be removed from the trip(ie. sit at home and get paid)?

2. As for the F/E back to the front, can you imagine the training backlog this might create, as well as the massive passover pay that would be earned while waiting for training. This could result in many FEs being paid at the captain rate while waiting to go back through training. A big bill for the boys on the board to swallow.

3. It will also cost the carriers big money. They will now have to continue to pay the over 60 pilot 250k to keep working when they could be paying him 100k or so in retirement(or nothing for some carriers) and pay a new guy 40-50k. Yes there are other factors like the additional pay for the senior guy who upgrades to the over 60 y/o's spot, but these costs are already built in and don't overshadow the big savings gained by getting rid of the senior guys.

All this adds up to my belief that the business side of the industry will lean on congress to not change the age, and that side of the industry usually gets what it wants. In the end, what 'we' want will have no impact on the outcome, we're just along for the ride.

If it does change, stand back and watch the confusion and mêlée that ensues.

As a side note, I think that many of the over 60 FEs at UPS or FDX fall into two groups:
1. [most] Waiting for the new contract to cash in on the backpay owed them.
2. Hired later in life and building years for retirement.
Most will bail after the new contracts. Pure conjecture here.

The story is different at the legacies where the retirements are gone and at SWA where the current stock price will kill much of the 'retirement' that the senior guys are hoping for. Another reason to demand 'money in the bank' type retirements...no matter how successfull your company is, the market can screw your good deal.

That's a lot to soak in, let me know what ya think.

 

[WhiteCloud]

That's a lot to soak in, let me know what ya think.

I think all your examples, while possible consequences of a rule change, have nothing to do with a 60+ age pilots ability to competently fly and airplane as a 121 Captain. The rule isn't there to provide morale or economic benefit for some over others. It's there for flight safety. The industry has just adapted to it the same way it will adapt to a change to 65. One economic benefit is that a pilot put out on the street at 50+ can still have a viable 15 year career somewhere else. A pilot in later 50's can be hired and still work to 65 if they need or want to. With bankruptcy being the playbook for reducing pay and benefits or just getting out of agreements many of us will need to work longer than expected to end up where we want to be in retirement. It might cost some pilots some money in delayed upgrades but I'm not really worried about them. They're in good jobs, just not as good as they might like. Those same FO's may think differently down the road when their company grabs a chunk of their pay and benefits and puts them out on the street at 50+.

 

[FlyBoeingJets]

I don't think 61 yr FO's will get any "pay protection" for dropped trips. They just won't get the line or the trip. extra pay might happen at, I imagine, Fedex but not at SWA.

I'm hoping for a phase in for the over 60 crowd. 61 next year, 62 the next year after and so on. This would keep the retired dudes retired and extend a gift to those 59 1/2.

FE's back to the front--Maybe the company will offer FO or Capt pay and keep them in the back to save training costs. Overall, a net drain on the company either way you look at it. But FedEx and UPS can afford this kind of expense. Very junior guys fare not so good. Guys not in class even worse.

At some companies this expense will be balanced by waiting to bring newhires on the property. This is being debated on this board but I think, generally, pension paying companies don't want new people on the property if they can avoid it. The pension starts later and fewer years are accumulated for future payouts. And the union leadership will want to help the most senior members (read themselves and buds). Not offering opinion on this, just predicting what will happen.

Affect at SWA? I don't know for sure. Everyone has rhetoric, especially SWAPA. But I don't think most people want to lie, they just have a natural need to be able to answer a question being asked. They don't have a firm idea so they try to create a possible positive spin that they think may float. There is no way over 60 will help most FO's now. It's funny to hear SWA FO's less than 12 months away from Capt talk about how they support over 60, just in 2007 not 2006. But it will help a majority of FO's later, of course. The Captains are pleased with the push for over 60 effective yesterday. That is just how unions work. They don't care any less for the new guys, just more for the folks at the company for 10 years or more. You want to be one of the top 50% crowd within a couple of years? Join JetBlue. Life is not fair and this is a perfect example.

This over 60 thing will pass. This year, next or even a year after that. The legal basis is just not there to keep it.

Question--

How many UPS or FedEx guys are over 60?? I know Fedex retirement numbers are about 50 more a year than SWA. I once FedEx has 100-200 over 60 guys on the property.

Hiring looks like it would take a HUGE hit at FedEx for a year or two after over 60 passes. Someone pull me out of the weeds and tell me otherwise.

 

[Chest Rockwell]

3. It will also cost the carriers big money. They will now have to continue to pay the over 60 pilot 250k to keep working when they could be paying him 100k or so in retirement(or nothing for some carriers) and pay a new guy 40-50k. Yes there are other factors like the additional pay for the senior guy who upgrades to the over 60 y/o's spot, but these costs are already built in and don't overshadow the big savings gained by getting rid of the senior guys.

FNG,

No carrier will replace a $250K Captain with a $40-50K FO. It is more of a domino style of replacement. Captain is "fired" at 60, FO upgrades to Captain (at a slightly less pay rate) but costs the company $40K for training. New-hire FO cost $40+ to interview, train, and get on line. Most pilots at age 55+ have fewer dependents that those in their thirties or forties.

 

[michael707767]

I think all your examples, while possible consequences of a rule change, have nothing to do with a 60+ age pilots ability to competently fly and airplane as a 121 Captain.

First of all, I want to say that I do tend to agree on a good day an over 60 pilot can probably fly as well as a 50 year old pilot. That is to say, when both are well fed, well rested, and have had a chance to exercise regularly, I think the over 60 pilot could perform as well.

However, that is not the airline pilot life. Four day trips, with short nights in crappy hotels, little chance to exercise, grabbing whatever food you can find on the fly........thats the reality of this lifestyle. I have noticed with the older pilots I fly with, they definately suffer a decline in performance at the end of a four day trip. I do think an over 60 pilot will have difficulty maintaining his/her performance level in this lifestyle.

Add to it, if everyone is convinced an over 60 pilot is safe, why the requirement to have an under 60 pilot flying with them? That is an admission that you have concerns about their abilities.

 

[DallasGatr]

I don't think 61 yr FO's will get any "pay protection" for dropped trips. They just won't get the line or the trip. extra pay might happen at, I imagine, Fedex but not at SWA.

Question--

How many UPS or FedEx guys are over 60?? I know Fedex retirement numbers are about 50 more a year than SWA. I once FedEx has 100-200 over 60 guys on the property.

Hiring looks like it would take a HUGE hit at FedEx for a year or two after over 60 passes. Someone pull me out of the weeds and tell me otherwise.

Actually, because FedEx already has over 60 pilots, (maybe 20-25% stay after 60?), there would not be as big a hit as carriers that do not have over 60 pilots now. In addition, I would imagine some would still retire at or around 60. Certainly hiring in the short term would take a hit at FedEx, but not to the extent of companies like SWA.

 

[FN FAL]

I say that if they decline to change the age 60 rule, that they pass a 50 year sunset clause into the old law so that they cannot revisit this issue in future until all the pricks that didn't want it, can't get it.

 

[FlyBoeingJets]

Actually, because FedEx already has over 60 pilots, (maybe 20-25% stay after 60?), there would not be as big a hit as carriers that do not have over 60 pilots now. In addition, I would imagine some would still retire at or around 60. Certainly hiring in the short term would take a hit at FedEx, but not to the extent of companies like SWA.

I see what you mean. FedEx hiring already accounts for some over 60's going to the SO seat.

But what will 4 years worth of over 60's in the SO seat do if they move over to the FO seat? I figure new hires will see over 2 years as SO instead of less than a year now.

 

[RAC396]

I see what you mean. FedEx hiring already accounts for some over 60's going to the SO seat.

But what will 4 years worth of over 60's in the SO seat do if they move over to the FO seat? I figure new hires will see over 2 years as SO instead of less than a year now.

And your point is?

 

[FlyBoeingJets]

Ahhh....The Point.


My point is it will be a little tougher to get hired at SWA and FedEx if over 60 passes. And...it will not only hurt FedEx hiring more than than SWA, you may spend years longer in the SO seat as over 60 SO's move back up to the front. I also predict some retiring every year at 60 will choose to stay longer if they can keep their front seat instead of moving to the back.

We shall see.

 

[sandman2122]

There's a lot to consider if this Age 60 actually gets implemented.

To begin with, I believe not all of the over 60 group will go back to their former front seat. We have a lot of guys who are retired military or coming from another airline late in life. They're probably more senior on the DC-10/727 panel (at FedEx) then the right seat. With their vacation and/or sick leave almost maxed out and being somewhat senior, they can work very little and enjoy descent trips vs. bidding more junior trips in the right/left seat. To piggyback - these guys/gals may not want to go through the Memphis training cycle again - especially when they only have 3-4 years left before retirement (they're on easy street, why go through the pain grandpa!).

Finally, the company will complain about with the increased training costs and potential scheduling nightmares..... These nightmares could be trying to keep "legal" the over 60 vs. under 60 crews. Example: A 63 yr old Captain's F/O calls in sick at the last minute - scheduling will need TWO reserve lists (over and under 60 F/O's) to legally fill trips - something they don't worry about now. Can't put the most junior guy, an age 62 F/O, who's sitting airport standby on the trip. Another option would be to screw ALL the under Age 60 guys and say "over 60 guys are a headache to schedule on Reserve, therefore they will not sit Reserve" - but ALPA wouldn't allow it. Scheduling would probably assign trips out of order and out of current leveling parameters...

This could/will create seniority issues when monthly bids come out. Another Example: The #5 seniority Airbus F/O, age 64, gets awarded the LVS - MEM line, the Captain awarded the line is age 64 too - who gets bumped, what is the quick solution, a can of worms just got opened......

The obvious seniority/upgrading problem will be the 59-60 year olds who will stay put in the left seat. Can't come up with a positive spin on that.

I grew up attending a public school and I didn't aspire to be a SQ/CC in the Air Force so bear with me. This post is probably soo flawed I should delete it, but I won't because I'm sure, well not really, that I'm not talking out of my @ss for a change. Wow, I bet I broke a few "Tounge & Quill" rules in that paragraph.

 

[Big Beer Belly]

Wow, I bet I broke a few "Tounge & Quill" rules in that paragraph

"Tongue & Quill" ... (sound of big sigh ...) "Now that's a name I've not heard in a long, long time."

You make some great points sandman about the scheduling can of worms with over/under 60 crew incompatibility scenarios.

BBB

 

[TexaSWA]

Actually, because FedEx already has over 60 pilots, (maybe 20-25% stay after 60?), there would not be as big a hit as carriers that do not have over 60 pilots now. In addition, I would imagine some would still retire at or around 60. Certainly hiring in the short term would take a hit at FedEx, but not to the extent of companies like SWA.

At SWA hiring to cover retirements is only about a quarter of the hiring due to growth. As long as we continue our planned growth you will not see a huge decline in hiring. 100+/- fewer per year.

I dont know how growth is on the cargo side so I cant wont even guess about FedEX

 

[VaB]

Scheduling would probably assign trips out of order and out of current leveling parameters...

But they already do that anyway. Or so I've heard.

Seriously though, as far as the reserve stuff goes, I think you're over thinking the problem. I'm sure they would just continue they way they have, with one list. If an old guy Captain needs a young guy F/O and the next reserve guy up is over 60, just move on to the next one. Those schedulers do miraculous things with the rules and the order in which folks are called.

How the line bidding would go, who knows. Maybe they would just give the senior guy a case of Geritol and bump him off of his trips.

 

[Airmike767]

The european Carriers will be flying into the USA with over 60 Captains, as they now do with over 60 FOs. The issue is fairness and stopping discrimination. The training scheduling issues will be resolved. I beleive that TWA did a study several years ago on a class and followed it through age 60. Only 30% were still around at age 60. Lots of us plan to retire at sixty but many need to continue to work due to failed companies, lost pensions or no pensions. There are many pilots out there who have never worked at a major and never received the higher pay and ability to retire at any age prior to SSN and Medicare. It is unfair to relegate these pilots to poverty and the WalMart greeter position because some new hire wants his Captain's seat sooner.

It was always unfair and I hope it changes on schedule in November 2006 with the rest of the ICAO participating world.

 

[K. Marx]

The european Carriers will be flying into the USA with over 60 Captains, as they now do with over 60 FOs. The issue is fairness and stopping discrimination.

The courts have already ruled that this is not discrimination. Europeans do a lot of things different from us, and they are equally as irrelevant.

 

[Airmike767]

So, I guess the over sixty crowd should just moveon to Europe.