ABX Astar Rumor

[UPSer]

I was talking to a buddy of mine at ABX the other day and he said that he and his crew was talking to a DHL ground manager who had a plan of ILN with all the new construction that DHL plans to to there (new sorts, ramps etc.). The plan was a layout of the airport with all the new parking spots designated by aircraft type. The plan, they were told, was how ILN would look in about 3 or 4 years and it showed only 35 DC-9s. When asked what happened to the other 40 DC-9s the manager quickly became a mute.

The other big rumor up there is that DHL is either going to purchase or lease the former Norton AFB in California for a west coast hub.

 

[goastar]

sbcity.org, then "site search", type in DHL and you will find a notice of intent, proposal etc.

 

[GoABX]

The current proposal to the San Bernandino (Norton) city fathers only has 5-6 aircraft. So unless they are only trying to get their foot in the door, it doesn't look like a major domecile.

If there were 40 DC-9s missing from the sketch, was there a replacement aircraft? 40 is about the number Astar has now, so do they not plan on growing over the next 3-4 years. My ABX brothers don't like to hear it but if Astar moves to Wilmington, DHL could cut 15-20 Dc-9s (70-120 pilots) and still have excess capacity for growth.

In the last few weeks we have had a rash of proffers and will be painfully short on 9 FOs. If the company continues to avoid recalls at all costs, then they are trying to stop a recall and refurlough because of impending cuts in '05. DHL should share at least part of the plan in the next 2 months because ABX needs to budget for 2005.

Making it more interesting is we will lose 5-6 more this year and 24+/- next year to retirements. These might seem like small numbers but with less than 800 pilots, the percentages are significant.

 

[ABXbooger]

I heard that the plan only had spots for DC-9 and 767 aircraft, honestly I would not base any planning on what someone saw on a drawing.

As far as the San Juan etc, I was told the reason we got those back was because Astar could not haul more than a little dry ice and we are a full hazmat carrier. We were chartering out freight we were originally carrying.

ABX is actively looking at new aircraft and I would think there will be something new in a couple of years and continued 767 development. (STC for cargo door)

New rumor is that "DHL will have a solution to the two airline problem by spring 2005". Don't know what that means either way.

 

[ABXbooger]

As to the cutting of flights, I have been told repeatedly by senior managers of the airline that " we will not recall until we are sure we have lasting work for these people". Over 2.5 years that has been the one thing that has been constant. I specifically asked when I was recalled if that was going to be the case, I was ensured that yes it was.

Let's also look at the realities here. ABX must know what is going to go down. Also, every route that has been "taken" away has returned, and we have added new ones. So I think we will see some give and take.

 

[LarryinTN]

Who was the Airborne guy who predicted that they would get San Juan, Puerto Rico back? Obviously you have a reliable source.

It certainly was rumored ever since we stopped the SJU flights in the DC9.

The information on our October bid packages is that our B767F starts flying CVG-SJU-CVG on the first of October. At the same time an ASTAR 727 takes over ILN-TPA-ILN from on of our DC9s. The DC8F pickes up the ILN-FLL-ILN trip that the B767F had been flying.

The CVG-SJU trip will be a 36hr layover in SJU for the B767 crews as it's blocked for 8:15 round trip. The crews start in ILN and are driving to CVG and the returning crews are driven back to ILN after arriving back at CVG. Due to the driving time the trip misconnects with everything else so it's a stand-alone trip put on the 19 day off lines.

The DC9s had been tight on both crews and airplanes so losing the TPA trip will takes some pressure off. The new west coast shuttles were really keeping the staffing tight. Another DC9 change is that the ILN-ABE-BOS-MDT/MDT-ILN trip is going back to the week-long BOS-ABE-BOS shuttle. The EWR DC9 layover will change to ILN-ABE-EWR-MDT/MDT-ILN.

The change of the DC9 in TPA would be the first test of the communiting situation as we have 20 or 25 pilots in that area but we still have a DC9 going through PIE so that takes a lot of the pressure off. We also have one pilot with a home in SJU. I think he's been spending a lot more time in his US home since we lost our SJU DC9.

As far as the long-term fleet plan goes... The DC9s and 727s would certainly seem to be logical choices for replacement.

 

[abxaviator]

The loss of TPA will really provide no relief for the 9 FO's. The 4 TPA/RSW lines are now 2 RSW lines and we will now have 5 9 Fo's upgrading next month. We had 21 FO reserve lines on the Sept bid and only 17 will be on the Oct award. They have already tried to Junior Man me this month and I'm more than 1/2 way up the list! It's definitely not going to be pretty, but I see them continuing this "we're properly staffed" game until they have to call DHL and tell them a couple flights won't be operating due to crew shortages.

 

[LarryinTN]

You're right, we're still going to be short.

 

[amflightpilot]

Any insight as to what/when might happen to the bottom feeders?

 

[LarryinTN]

The feeders? I have no idea other than there will probably be a lot of changes. There are a lot of places were we fly were there is also a feeder from CVG.