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Abort??

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The California video doesn't necessarily suggest space junk. It's probably one of the first tiles to come off, before high temperatures breached the shuttle's skin, and before there was enough drag to give the autopilot problems.

The shuttle may have been hit by space junk while in orbit, but any impact large enough to cause that kind of damage would probably have been heard by the crew. The shuttle gets hit all the time by microscopic particles. Several years ago, a paint chip hit one of the windshield panes and gouged a pit into it. It's possible a larger piece caused the tile damage.

I think we're going to see an end to the tile-based heat shields. They're just too complex and too fragile. We've made enough advances in materials technology to go to a system with larger carbon or ceramic sheets.
As a short term fix for the Shuttle, I can see NASA going back to an ablative coating, like was used from Mercury through Apollo. They could apply it right over the top of the tiles before each flight, and it would both protect them from damage and stabilize any that come loose. It will add several thousand pounds to the empty weight, but it will be worth it.
 

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