A Career Question

[Clyde]

To all of you "legacy skeptics"

I don't blame any of you for not wanting a job with the legacies. SImple, they are doing horrible, not making money, downsizing, etc. In other words, an exact replay of what happened to them in the early 70s, early 80s, early 90s, and now, early to mid '00s. Granted, this is on a larger scale than before.

However, during those times, nobody wanted to go to them either. Then the legacies turned around, and what happened, a massive flock to the legacies when they started hiring again.

Folks, it is very easy for one to say they will "never consider a job" with this or that particular airline, based on their current situation. The truth is, once the legacies start turning around (and they will), you will see, once again, an exact replay from the last 4 decades. Everyone will flock to them, because they are hiring, and because we have an oversupply of pilots. Simple but true.

Look at CO. Three years ago nobody would even consider them, due to their situation. Now look at all the pilots "suddenly interested." Throw in a DAL, and eventually a NWA, AA, UAL and it'll be just like the 90s all over again.

There will always be a select few who strictly want to go with only ONE specific carrier (a la SWA, Fedex, etc), but the majority will jump all over an opening at a legacy, when they start to hire again. Why, because of hope and optimism that maybe, just maybe, this particular legacy will survive.

JMHO, cheers to all.
73

I'm optimistic that AMR will pull through this a lot stronger than the other legacies. You make a good point with your reference to history. Within the past 30 years, we have seen American, United, Delta, Northwest (Northwest Orient), and Continental dominating the terminals at a lot of airports. We have also seen Pan Am, TWA, and Eastern too.

We also saw numerous carriers that were smaller than the big majors. Frontier (the real one), Piedmont, Huges Airwest, Western, Capitol, Presidential, New York Air, Southern Airways and Midway just to name a few.

What happened between 30 years ago and now? Well, Pan Am and Eastern have long since been gone and TWA has been absorbed. Western was purchased by Delta. Hughes Airwest and Southern eventually joined up with North Central to become Republic Airlines, which eventually was merged into Northwest Orient Airlines to be then called just Northwest. Frontier ended up in the Texas Air group's hands and became absorbed into the Continental system, taking New York Air along the way too. Midway ended up going out of business, and Capitol and Presidential were never heard from again either. People Express Airlines, probably one of the first with no-frills flying, was on the scene just long enough before being absorbed into the Continental system (via Lorenzo).

Southwest made it and continues to make it as does America West Airlines, the first airline to become a major since deregulation.

Where am I going with this? Don't be surprised to see one, maybe two major "legacy" carriers close shop. Look for a merger between a couple of more. We'll probably see some of the smaller LCC's either merge with each other or just shut down. Definitely going to see one, maybe two newer airlines (less than 10 yrs old) survive and be strong. (i.e., JetBlue)

Consolidation, mergers, and a couple of good-bye's is what I anticipate witnessing over the next 5 years. There is overcapacity and only the strongest are going to survive. History has a way of repeating itself, especially in the airline industry. People do not want to travel via trains and steamships, so they are going to have to and want to fly. The passenger industry has to streamline itself first before it can offer those services in a streamlined manner.

With less competition, you are going to see ticket prices go back up. And they should. You can't make a profit giving services away for less than what it cost to offer it. Hopefully, airline managers of the future will take note of the mistakes made by their predessesors over the last 5-7 years and NOT make the same stupid mistakes.

 

[aa73]

I glad they rescinded your furlough. You might have had to do the Eagle flowback thing - not a happy place to be, unfortunately.

Congrats on keeping your seat.

Thanks English, believe me miracles do happen!

Spoke to crew planning yesterday and they said that they are definitely done with furloughs and plan on starting recalls either this fall or Jan 06. All of those furloughed in 2005 will be back on the property by March 06, which is about 250-300 pilots.

The summer schedule was actually reduced by 4500hrs due to crew shortages.

There are about 1500 senior guys who have "locked in" for early retirement. Combine that with about half of the furlougheed accepting recall, and I think you will see AMR looking to start hiring around 2008-2010 or so. (huge #s of retirements through the 2010s-2020s.)

Regards to all,
73

 

[aa73]

Clyde-


Excellent post, and I agree wholeheartedly (did I spell that right?) with your points. Airline history has been nothing other than 60 years of repeating itself.

I also hope AMR pulls through, I have somewhat of a vested interest in that

Regards,
73

 

[skykid]

However, during those times, nobody wanted to go to them either. Then the legacies turned around, and what happened, a massive flock to the legacies when they started hiring again.

Great discussion, and great points. I disagree with the above because I think there are huge changes in the way business is done now in this country, different models alltogether.

Clyde, I still disagree with you on the affect of the pax carriers on your company. If I'm your management, everytime you have a contract up I'm pointing and screaming at what these other guys are making, and it will have an affect. When Delta and United Captains were making 300K, your negotiators could point in the same direction. Don't get me wrong, the better your contract is, all the better for me. I hope you guys become the best compensated pilots in history. And I do include the big 3 automakers in my statement about pensions. Unions will, in my humble opinion, continue to have less and less power, and pensions will become obsolete. That doesn't mean UPS or Ford is going to dump their pension on the PBGC! They will be slowly phased out and negotiated out. Anyway, your version turns out better, so I'm hoping you are right.

 

[rptrain]

I'll take a job with ANY airline on the list in ANY order!

Probably for $22/hour as well.

 

[General Lee]

Great discussion, and great points. I disagree with the above because I think there are huge changes in the way business is done now in this country, different models alltogether.

Clyde, I still disagree with you on the affect of the pax carriers on your company. If I'm your management, everytime you have a contract up I'm pointing and screaming at what these other guys are making, and it will have an affect. When Delta and United Captains were making 300K, your negotiators could point in the same direction. Don't get me wrong, the better your contract is, all the better for me. I hope you guys become the best compensated pilots in history. And I do include the big 3 automakers in my statement about pensions. Unions will, in my humble opinion, continue to have less and less power, and pensions will become obsolete. That doesn't mean UPS or Ford is going to dump their pension on the PBGC! They will be slowly phased out and negotiated out. Anyway, your version turns out better, so I'm hoping you are right.

Sure, there are different "models" being used today, and the legacies, even though they have been slow at doing so, are actually adjusting too. It has taken them long enough, but they are in the process too of making things leaner on the domestic side (adding products like Song and TED), and actually building their INTL side. We haven't gotten leaner on the INTL side because that is where the money is right now. But, other major steps have been taken, and I don't think you have accounted for that. Sure, other obstacles are in the way---like a massive debt problem, high gas prices, etc. But, other problems that used to be high on the list have been dealt with, like labor costs and mx issues. It will be interesting.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Clyde]

Clyde-


Excellent post, and I agree wholeheartedly (did I spell that right?) with your points. Airline history has been nothing other than 60 years of repeating itself.

I also hope AMR pulls through, I have somewhat of a vested interest in that

Regards,
73

aa73,
Thanks. As far as the spelling thing, you're guess is as good as mine. It looks good from here.

 

[SWA/FO]

-9

There was nothing wrong with your post. I was just stating that I disagree with the "4000 hours of B1900 time = 1000 hours of Jet time".

You think guys flying freight in a falcon 20 don't hand fly many approaches to mins? I (we) at my previous employer (USA Jet) flew many NDB and VOR approaches (w/ & w/o arcs) in Canada and Mexico. Flying with the autopilot defered many times at all hours of the day, mostly at night. When you fly freight you either get good at it (flying) or you die.

I'm not saying that a B1900 driver doesn't know how to fly. I'm just saying that flying freight provides one with great experience.

Anybody can get familiar with regs (121). Most military guys have no problem once they transition to their second career at the airlines...(as an example).

 

[Clyde]

Great discussion, and great points. I disagree with the above because I think there are huge changes in the way business is done now in this country, different models alltogether.

Clyde, I still disagree with you on the affect of the pax carriers on your company. If I'm your management, everytime you have a contract up I'm pointing and screaming at what these other guys are making, and it will have an affect. When Delta and United Captains were making 300K, your negotiators could point in the same direction. Don't get me wrong, the better your contract is, all the better for me. I hope you guys become the best compensated pilots in history. And I do include the big 3 automakers in my statement about pensions. Unions will, in my humble opinion, continue to have less and less power, and pensions will become obsolete. That doesn't mean UPS or Ford is going to dump their pension on the PBGC! They will be slowly phased out and negotiated out. Anyway, your version turns out better, so I'm hoping you are right.

Skykid,
Management everywhere is always looking for ways to compensate their employees less and less. No matter how profitable a company is, their job is to keep as much of the cash as they can.

The reason I continue to respectfully disagree (and I do mean respectfully and gentleman-like) with your argument is solely because of the nature of the business and the circumstances.

The number of pilots at Brown represents less than 1% of the total number of employees in the company. 1% of the company generating more than 50% of the revenue. Also, our pensions are fully-funded. The money sits in accounts and collects interest. This money is written off as an expense and provides for an important tax write-off for the company.

When DAL and UAL were paying captains $300K, it was pointed out by our negotiatiors, and the company insisted we are not an airline. Times have changed and the company has tried to point to the other airlines salaries, but our negotiators reminded them that we are not an airline. That coupled with their financial records put everyone at the table in agreement that we are still a trucking company with airplanes and they were able to move on.

But, I don't know the future long-tem, and things can and do change. Based on what I know now, I would say the odds are very slim that we might see pensions go away. I say that too because of what happened at Chrysler many years ago. They were within days of literally shutting down completely. Lee Iacoca stepped in and pulled them out of the dive. To the best of my knowledge, the pensions remained intact and are still funded to this day.

Will the power of the unions begin to dwindle over time? I think a lot depends on how unified people become. I see the majors losing runs that used to flown using a DC-9 or a 737 with smaller airplanes and pilots willing to work for less. I see people who will not go down without a fight, and others coming out of school who will work for any wage just to say they fly a jet. I think step one is getting everybody on the same sheet of music. Step two is to band together until professionals are paid like professionals.

I too hope my version is the one that comes true. Not because of pride, but because the industry can start heading back to what it used to be: pilots getting paid professional wages to fly airplanes.

 

[-9Capt]

SWA F/O,

Point well taken. Come to think of it, I remember some pretty amazing stories told by some of your ex-coworkers about trips to Mexico.

It's best to have a good mix of regional, corp, military etc., I wish AirTran would realize that.