A Career Question

[skykid]

Clyde, I don't need you to tell me what a cargo company does, or what it takes to axe a pension. What I'm talking about is the trend that will sooner or later reach you, which is the end of traditional retirement plans. Not just the airline industry. I believe unless you work for the government (and even the military is seeing retirement benefits get smaller) pensions are going to be scarce. I'm not talking about next year, but I wouldn't count on a pension if I was just getting hired by UPS or ANY other organization. I'm fully aware that right now there is no legal way to end an employee group's pension plan outside of Ch11, without their consent. We have no idea what is going to happen with the PBGC in the next several years and what kind of sweeping changes are in store. On the wage issue, what is happening to the pax carriers is not happening in a vacuum, that's all I'm saying. I don't care if UPS made $6+ bil in profits, your management can point to the wages us toads flying pax are now making. I'm glad you got a good laugh from my post anyway! Hopefully I'm wrong on all this.


Gen, hopefully next year you can cut and paste this and show how I was wrong about Delta. I was certainly wrong about the number of retirees you predicted! I think the reason Delta will be pulling down the domestic schedule will be because of a massive effort to avoid Ch11 or because of Ch11. Unless all 80 of those flights you were talking about are making money or better yet making money going across the pond, I think adding capacity is a mistake. Northwest just canceled their planned growth for the year, UAL just pulled down domestic seats another 14% and added about the same international. Delta should be doing the same.

 

[cheezflyer]

Moron

I'll take a job with ANY airline on the list in ANY order!

You will eventually change your mind and rank airlines on a preferential list when you get more than your 1600 hours. As for the GuppyKiller label you are only pissing off Mainline guys and making commutes harder for RJ drivers everywhere.

 

[Wojo]

Skydid -


1) Military retirements dropping? Huh? Being in the military presently I can tell you that there are no current drops. I suspect there will be some folks forced out soon with severance pay but for now the same retirement amounts fully apply.

2) I doubt UPS and FEDEX wages will drop - we'll see when either are through negotiations but don't count on it - they make money, a lot of it and that's the bargaining chip.

 

[skykid]

Wojo, I entered the military in 1985 and am currently in the military. I can tell you with 100% accuracy the deal in place when I signed on is not the deal I have now. In fact, it was never a "deal" and uncle Sam can change it when he wants. When I retire, my percentages are going to be different than the deal my Dad got, changed for the worse. I know a lot of retirees who can talk to you for hours about changes in medical retirement benefits.

I don't think UPS and FedEx wages will drop either, at least not anytime soon, since we don't know what will happen tomorrow. This guy wants advice on how to rank these companies - my opinion is long term FedEx and UPS compensation are going to be tied in many ways to the passenger airlines. What I said was, they will be under pressure to mirror what is happening to the passenger airlines. That's just common sense. I'd still rate FedEx and UPS number one and two on the list. I would start over at FedEx right now if given the opportunity.

 

[Clyde]

Clyde, I don't need you to tell me what a cargo company does, or what it takes to axe a pension. What I'm talking about is the trend that will sooner or later reach you, which is the end of traditional retirement plans. Not just the airline industry. I believe unless you work for the government (and even the military is seeing retirement benefits get smaller) pensions are going to be scarce. I'm not talking about next year, but I wouldn't count on a pension if I was just getting hired by UPS or ANY other organization. I'm fully aware that right now there is no legal way to end an employee group's pension plan outside of Ch11, without their consent. We have no idea what is going to happen with the PBGC in the next several years and what kind of sweeping changes are in store. On the wage issue, what is happening to the pax carriers is not happening in a vacuum, that's all I'm saying. I don't care if UPS made $6+ bil in profits, your management can point to the wages us toads flying pax are now making. I'm glad you got a good laugh from my post anyway! Hopefully I'm wrong on all this.


Gen, hopefully next year you can cut and paste this and show how I was wrong about Delta. I was certainly wrong about the number of retirees you predicted! I think the reason Delta will be pulling down the domestic schedule will be because of a massive effort to avoid Ch11 or because of Ch11. Unless all 80 of those flights you were talking about are making money or better yet making money going across the pond, I think adding capacity is a mistake. Northwest just canceled their planned growth for the year, UAL just pulled down domestic seats another 14% and added about the same international. Delta should be doing the same.

"Clyde, I don't need you to tell me what a cargo company does, or what it takes to axe a pension."
For starters, UPS is not a cargo company. True, we carry cargo in the bellies of our aircraft, but we are considered a transportation conglomerate with emphasis being an integral part of the customer's manufacturing process. i.e., logistics and supply-chain-management.

"What I'm talking about is the trend that will sooner or later reach you, which is the end of traditional retirement plans."
Doubtful. With SS all but dead and the government already dealing with the mess at UAL and USAirways, the last thing they want is to encourage healthy companies from dropping their pension plans needlessly. You might as well as included the big 3 automakers and every other industry in your statement. BTW, it wouldn't be good for a company as large and successful as UPS to just do away with pensions. First, this is a HUGE tax write-off for the company, as strong as their cash flow is, it would harm them to not have this. Second, if they were going to axe our pensions than they would also have to do so for the teamsters. Do you think truck drivers would find it fair that they should lose their pensions because the passenger airlines in the muck? Third, a lot of the managers receive a sizeble pension when they retire. I doubt they are going to vote themselves out of a pension. Most of them started out by loading trucks and have been promoted over the years. i.e., you are not going ot see any airline-style execs being hired here off the streets.

"I'm not talking about next year, but I wouldn't count on a pension if I was just getting hired by UPS or ANY other organization."
That should be the attitude of EVERYONE working EVERYWHERE, no matter how successful your company is. I'm planning on receiving a pension, but I am also going to retire on my 401k and personal retirement investments when I reach 60. My pensions (yes, two of them) are going to be gravy money. Personal finance is why some people can retire and not others.

"On the wage issue, what is happening to the pax carriers is not happening in a vacuum, that's all I'm saying. I don't care if UPS made $6+ bil in profits, your management can point to the wages us toads flying pax are now making."
Out of all of the expenses my company endures, the pilot salaries (fact) are the lowest. Our compensation expense is a spit-in-the-ocean compared to everything else. It would be extremely difficult for them to point to us and say that our wages are bringing down their profits, especially when there is growth and profits continue to increase.
Now, at the passenger airlines it's another story. Labor is their biggest expense, right up there with fuel. The pax airlines are not diversified. Their bread-and-butter consists entirely on carrying a passenger from point A to point B. People are not going to take trains and steamships, but there are way too many seats chasing way too little folks. Combine that with people at certain carriers willing to fly for just about nothing, and you have a recipe for economic disaster with the pax side.
I would say the pax airlines are in a vacuum. Competition, expenses, supply-and-demand. These are not experienced by UPS and FedEx on the same magnitude. So, like I said before, you might as well be asking our truck drivers to take a paycut because of what is happening in the passenger airline industry.
The airline here is the smallest segment of the company. It generates the greatest amount of revenue. How many passenger airlines can say that about themselves?
Labor expense at the passenger airlines is definitely a hinderance, but it did not cause them to fall. Poor upper management and serious overcapacity is what did it. The labor expenses are just salt to an already much opened sore.

"I don't care if UPS made $6+ bil in profits, your management can point to the wages us toads flying pax are now making."
They have already tried that, and were not successful. All we have to do is point to ABX or FedEx and compare their wages to ours, i.e., other companies in the same type of business. Also, the financial records and growth (both forecasted and present) make it extremely difficult for them to cry woe is us.

"Hopefully I'm wrong on all this."
Hopefully the passenger side can recover and conversations like this one won't have to occur. Unfortunately, I don't think there is a need to limit pensions at most of the carriers, it's just a tactical management move. But regardless, I think there is going to be some serious consolidation before too long. Some carriers won't be around or will be merged into others, but that is going to be the next big step. When that happens, stability will set in, wages may come back up, and pensions/retirement plans will be more solid.

 

[Clyde]

Wojo, I entered the military in 1985 and am currently in the military. I can tell you with 100% accuracy the deal in place when I signed on is not the deal I have now. In fact, it was never a "deal" and uncle Sam can change it when he wants. When I retire, my percentages are going to be different than the deal my Dad got, changed for the worse. I know a lot of retirees who can talk to you for hours about changes in medical retirement benefits.

I don't think UPS and FedEx wages will drop either, at least not anytime soon, since we don't know what will happen tomorrow. This guy wants advice on how to rank these companies - my opinion is long term FedEx and UPS compensation are going to be tied in many ways to the passenger airlines. What I said was, they will be under pressure to mirror what is happening to the passenger airlines. That's just common sense. I'd still rate FedEx and UPS number one and two on the list. I would start over at FedEx right now if given the opportunity.

Skykid,
Please don't take this the wrong way, because I am in no way, shape, or form mocking your post. But, with that said, until the airlines start purchasing trucks and delivering packages to peoples homes and businesses, you cannot compare the two.
The first thing UPS will tell you in the interview is that they are not an airline. They own the airplanes, they fly them places, and they have brown paint on them. But they, just like the trucks, are viewed as assets which are utilized in the process of delivering a box from shipper to receiver. You can't truck it to Hong Kong form L.A., so you must fly it.

 

[General Lee]

Clyde, I don't need you to tell me what a cargo company does, or what it takes to axe a pension. What I'm talking about is the trend that will sooner or later reach you, which is the end of traditional retirement plans. Not just the airline industry. I believe unless you work for the government (and even the military is seeing retirement benefits get smaller) pensions are going to be scarce. I'm not talking about next year, but I wouldn't count on a pension if I was just getting hired by UPS or ANY other organization. I'm fully aware that right now there is no legal way to end an employee group's pension plan outside of Ch11, without their consent. We have no idea what is going to happen with the PBGC in the next several years and what kind of sweeping changes are in store. On the wage issue, what is happening to the pax carriers is not happening in a vacuum, that's all I'm saying. I don't care if UPS made $6+ bil in profits, your management can point to the wages us toads flying pax are now making. I'm glad you got a good laugh from my post anyway! Hopefully I'm wrong on all this.


Gen, hopefully next year you can cut and paste this and show how I was wrong about Delta. I was certainly wrong about the number of retirees you predicted! I think the reason Delta will be pulling down the domestic schedule will be because of a massive effort to avoid Ch11 or because of Ch11. Unless all 80 of those flights you were talking about are making money or better yet making money going across the pond, I think adding capacity is a mistake. Northwest just canceled their planned growth for the year, UAL just pulled down domestic seats another 14% and added about the same international. Delta should be doing the same.

The reason we added those extra flights is because we changed the turn times to allow an extra section each day. That extra section gives us the ability to try to squeeze out some more revenue for each plane and try to pay off the fixed costs for the day for each plane. (Insurance, lease costs, etc) The reason we won't cut back on flights is because the last time we did, Airtran came in and put their nicer 717s on our newer CRJ routes and took away market share. Northwest doesn't have nearly as much LCC competition in "their backyard". They have Sun Country out of MSP, and Spirit out of DTW, both of which are small in those cities (Spirit does more North--South East Coast and FLL---not as much DTW). To deal with this, DL has launched a $5 billion savings plan, and that should be done by mid next year. We pilots took a $billion pay cut, and the stews/mechanics/ramp took another billion. Then we got lease cuts from lessors, and we just recently announced outsourcing of heavy mx. We added Simplifares, and made ATL more efficient at the same time with quciker turns which is doing well. We have added (along with others) 4 recent fuel surcharges to combat the higher fuel prices. We may sell ASA or Comair if needed. We are working with Congress for pension payment extensions. We have a full plate, and hopefully things will go our way, but change is definitely here to stay.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[aa73]

The bottom of any legacy carrier's list is absolutely the wrong place to be right now.

It is amazing how many pilots have been brainwashed into thinking that is the golden carrot.

Been there, done that.

English-

The bottom of the AA list is the happiest place in the world for me right now. Do you know why? Because I was furloughed April 1 and on March 31, they rescinded my furlough. It's funny how things like that totally change one's perspective.

Having said that, I'd probably go to Southwest if I could, too.

Regards,
73

 

[aa73]

To all of you "legacy skeptics"

I don't blame any of you for not wanting a job with the legacies. SImple, they are doing horrible, not making money, downsizing, etc. In other words, an exact replay of what happened to them in the early 70s, early 80s, early 90s, and now, early to mid '00s. Granted, this is on a larger scale than before.

However, during those times, nobody wanted to go to them either. Then the legacies turned around, and what happened, a massive flock to the legacies when they started hiring again.

Folks, it is very easy for one to say they will "never consider a job" with this or that particular airline, based on their current situation. The truth is, once the legacies start turning around (and they will), you will see, once again, an exact replay from the last 4 decades. Everyone will flock to them, because they are hiring, and because we have an oversupply of pilots. Simple but true.

Look at CO. Three years ago nobody would even consider them, due to their situation. Now look at all the pilots "suddenly interested." Throw in a DAL, and eventually a NWA, AA, UAL and it'll be just like the 90s all over again.

There will always be a select few who strictly want to go with only ONE specific carrier (a la SWA, Fedex, etc), but the majority will jump all over an opening at a legacy, when they start to hire again. Why, because of hope and optimism that maybe, just maybe, this particular legacy will survive.

JMHO, cheers to all.
73

 

[English]

English-

The bottom of the AA list is the happiest place in the world for me right now. Do you know why? Because I was furloughed April 1 and on March 31, they rescinded my furlough. It's funny how things like that totally change one's perspective.

Having said that, I'd probably go to Southwest if I could, too.

Regards,
73

I glad they rescinded your furlough. You might have had to do the Eagle flowback thing - not a happy place to be, unfortunately.

Congrats on keeping your seat.