70 buck a barrel oil matched by rising airfares...talk of rationing.

[FN FAL]

Oil Heads Back Toward $70 a Barrel

[SIZE=-2]Staff and agencies
31 March, 2006




By BRAD FOSS, AP Business Writer 4 minutes ago

WASHINGTON - Oil prices appear headed back toward $70 a barrel, a level not seen since Hurricane Katrina battered the Gulf Coast and sporadic shortages sent gasoline at the pump above $3 a gallon nationwide.

Analysts warn, however, that consumers and businesses could be just one major supply disruption away from more serious financial consequences.

But while the gas-price sticker shock may be wearing off, Nomura Securities chief economist David Resler fears a more subtle fuel-related angst settling in among consumers.

In that context, a hypothetical supply disruption that jolts oil prices to $80 or higher and keeps them there for an extended period — say, three months — could result in "a substantial falloff in discretionary spending" that snowballs into a serious slowdown.

Perhaps the top threat for the oil market is the standoff between the United Nations United Nations and Iran Iran, OPEC OPEC‘s No. 2 producer, over Tehran‘s nuclear energy ambitions.

Iran‘s foreign minister said Friday his country would not use oil as an economic weapon, and that helped ease prices, but analysts say they remain concerned about supplies from Iraq Iraq, Russia, Venezuela and other places.

With global oil demand expected to average 85 million barrels per day in 2006, and excess production capacity limited to 2 million barrels per day, oil analyst Jamal Qureshi of PFC Energy in Washington said prices aren‘t likely to retreat anytime soon.

Yet in spite of all the apprehension about oil supplies — or maybe because of it — U.S. inventories of crude are at a seven-year high of roughly 341 million barrels. That does not include the 685,700 barrels in the country‘s strategic reserve, available in an emergency.

On Friday, light crude for May delivery traded at $65.80 a barrel, down $1.35 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. U.S. retail gasoline prices averaged $2.53 a gallon, or 37 cents higher than last year, according to Oil Price Information Service.

Economists and oil-market experts say industry and homeowners may not like paying more for fuel but they are adapting, in large part because energy is a tiny piece of overall spending and, thanks to more efficient technology, an even smaller piece than it was during the energy crises of the 1970s.

Relatively low interest rates, which have made it easy to borrow money while helping to prop up the stock and housing markets, have reduced the impact of high oil prices on the economy.

Of course, the Federal Reserve Federal Reserve has raised short-term rates 15 times since June 2004 to cool off the housing market and keep inflation in check, and this is likely to slow growth irrespective of energy prices.

BMO‘s Cooper said the Fed probably needs to raise interest rates again in May to slow economic growth because there are signs — rising airfares among them — that inflationary pressures are creeping up.

Brian Hicks, co-manager of US Global Investors‘ Global Resources Fund, a mutual fund heavily invested in energy, said a recession in the U.S. would likely reverberate across emerging-market economies and could quickly depress daily oil demand by 2 million barrels per day.

That dire scenario is not what Hicks or most other financial professionals are anticipating. Hicks forsees oil prices trading in a range of $55 to $65 through the end of the year, with consumption tapering off anywhere above $70 and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries curtailing production at around $50.

James Cordier, president of Liberty Trading in Tampa, Fla., believes oil prices will climb as long as the economies of the U.S., China and India continue to grow and that prices may need to hit $75 before there is any significant demand response.

"We are going to find out at what price level we start rationing demand," Cordier said. "That is what we have to do."
[/SIZE]

uke:

 

[The_Russian]

Anyone want to buy my Camaro SS? Time for a hybrid!

 

[jetexas]

Hybrid? Anyone know where I can get a good bicycle?

 

[navigator72]

Avgas should be about 20 bucks a gallon at this rate

 

[FN FAL]

Avgas should be about 20 bucks a gallon at this rate

They have been talking about us driving the feeder caravans at 1300 ft lbs to save fuel. We're already company limited to 1500 ft lbs.

 

[mcjohn]

Only one word comes to mind:

BIODIESEL When can we start fueling turbines with this stuff?

 

[PacoPollo]

All this while W's buddies pocket record profits..But hey go ahead and buy that nice Hummer or Tahoe you get that employee discount with it.After all, we gotta support the economy.

 

[sleddriver71]

Wow, wow, that that was was really really annoying annoying to to read. read.

 

[Luxor Two]

I'm gonna go "get the papers get the papers."


I think it was written by Johnny Two-Times from Goodfellas.

 

[siucavflight]

what what the hell hell was that that. Was this this a first first grader who who wrote this this?

 

[molson247]

Woo hoo.....In B 4 Jetflyer starts saying we're all DEAD and the sky is falling and we've hit peak oil and we're all going to be riding bikes and civilization is over..........

 

[djsk]

Anyone want to buy my Camaro SS? Time for a hybrid!

Nooooooo, don't do it. I have one also, 27mpg on the highway. Not really that bad, just stay off the loud pedal.

 

[Corona]

Nooooooo, don't do it. I have one also, 27mpg on the highway. Not really that bad, just stay off the loud pedal.

Nooooooo, don't do it. I have one also, 27mpg on the highway. Not really that bad, just stay off the loud pedal.

Good lawd, mon! What you doing to that poor car?

I drove an '05 Prius last fall for 600 miles; averaged 47mpg on the whole trip, including mostly highway driving @ 80mph + some serious mountain roads. (Note: I didn't go by the computer; added up the gas serviced myself.)

C

PS: I'll go for the bicycle first...getting mine some parts tomorrow, in fact.

 

[jetflyer]

we're all DEAD and the sky is falling and we've hit peak oil and we're all going to be riding bikes and civilization is over..........

Jet

 

[mzaharis]

we're all DEAD and the sky is falling and we've hit peak oil and we're all going to be riding bikes and civilization is over..........

Jet

Step 1:

We admitted we were powerless over <oil>; that our lives had become unmanageable.

Only 11 more steps to go!!!! :beer:

 

[Cardinal]

"We are going to find out at what price level we start rationing demand," Cordier said

I don't think the man is talking about a government rationing program.

What he means is when will demand ration, or limit, itself due to high prices. Gasoline is the classic inelastic commodity on the macro level. Whatever the price, people tend to buy it in the same quantity. But all things are elastic to a degree, this guy just wonders where that price point is.

 

[jetflyer]

I posted this on another thread as well, but I'd like to tell you my views on these NUTTY PEAK OIL PEOPLE.

I personally think these nuts saying that oil is not a renewable resource and is going to get more rare in the near future are just scaremongerers.

People like vice president of Iran's national oil company:Samsan Bakhitari, Colin Campbell, advisor to Cheney and Bush:Matthew Simmons, Republican Congressman Roscoe Bartlett, George Soros, T. Boone Pickens, and ex-CIA chief James Woolsey must be just giggling at how they're making people scared preaching their peak oil prophecies and telling people to start using renewable resources!!! God forbid!!

I think oil will go back to the historic $20.00/barrel any day now. This is what a lot of the experts are saying. HISTORY has always said that more oil will be found and the price will go back to its historic norm. Surely this will NEVER change. It's only higher because of the terrorism premium, and there are Nigerians kidnapping oil workers. When the oil workers are released oil will go to $20.00.

There is an infinite amount of oil in the ground. It is created in the center of the earth. It's called abiotic oil. Dead Dino remains?! HAH! Whatever!!! .... Scientists are such retards.

I wouldn't listen to biased retards like the U.S. govt.'s Department of Energy that says Peak Oil is going to be the biggest challenge of modern society!!!!!
Have you noticed how they've been trying to freak out the world, by making such a big deal of their early 2005 findings on Peak oil found here:
http://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/others/pdf/Oil_Peaking_NETL.pdf
Scaremongering Retards!!! I think I've seen the govt. mention peak oil atleast 4 times a day over the last year since they did that study. Why are they trying to scare us. I bet it's to give the oil companies higher profits!! Bush is one of dem oil men, ya know.

Y2K Part 2 that's all this is. These people just need to scare people. Dang Chicken Littles. Wolf Cryers!! They don't feel right unless they're scared and scaring others. That must be it.

Everything will be just fine. Go along with your using of 1000 barrels a second of oil. We'll soon be using 1200 barrels a second of oil, then 1500 barrels a second.

There are no limits to how much oil we can use!! It's created in the center of the Earth!!

Truth Speaker,
Jet

 

[jetflyer]

Also the oil companies are scamming us and just running up the price.

Did you know that in 1970 the U.S. produced 9.6 million barrels PER DAY of Oil!?

The UNITED STATES used to pump more oil than SAUDI ARABIA does today!!

Now the U.S. is only producing 5.4 million barrels per day and it falls every year even though they drill more oil wells and found Alaska's oil and the Gulf of Mexico oil since then.

Why is this?
It can't be as some claim that the U.S. reached its peak oil in 1970, as M. King Hubbert a Shell geologist predicted in 1956. He said that this is a natural geological process, that the pressure in the oil wells diminishes and even after pumping water or carbon in the wells that you'll eventually get less and less oil out every year.

This is impossible because there is an infinite amount of oil in the ground. It's created in the center of the earth.

I think the oil companies are choosing to produce only half as much oil as they did in the 1970's so they can run up the price. Then they'll save their oil for when it's really expensive.

Chevron claims at their "Move Past Oil Site":
http://www.willyoujoinus.com/issues/alternatives/
that 33 out of the world's 48 major oil producers have passed their peak oil production and are in decline like the United States. Here is the quote:

Oil production is in decline in 33 of the 48 largest oil producing countries, yet energy demand is increasing around the globe as economies grow and nations develop.

I think Chevron is lying to us all!! They're part of the SCAREMONGERING PHONEY Peak Oil crowd. They're trying to convince us, with Bush's help, that we're running out of oil. The elites are trying to run up the price so they can profit and make money off us little people.

It's all a grand conspiracy!!

Bottom line is that the U.S. could pump oil at 9.6 million barrels a day like they did in the 1970's if they wanted to, and we wouldn't have the problems we're having now.

The oil companies are CHOOSING to pump 4.2 million barrels less per day today than in 1970, even though they have brought on the Alaskan Slope and Gulf of Mexico oil since then!!

It's a crime!

America did not pass no phoney Peak Oil in 1970. Malarchy! Bologna sandwich!! Horse Manure!!!

It's all a conspiracy by dee elites!

Plus Chevron is lying by saying 33 of the 48 major oil producers have passed their peak oil, like the United States! BOLOGNA SANDWICH!!

Dang Conspiracy. We's needs a congressional investigashun!! I's tells ya!

Scaremongerers!!!

Jetflyer

 

[sleddriver71]

Also the oil companies are scamming us and just running up the price.

Did you know that in 1970 the U.S. produced 9.6 million barrels PER DAY of Oil!?

The UNITED STATES used to pump more oil than SAUDI ARABIA does today!!

Now the U.S. is only producing 5.4 million barrels per day and it falls every year even though they drill more oil wells and found Alaska's oil and the Gulf of Mexico oil since then.

Why is this?
It can't be as some claim that the U.S. reached its peak oil in 1970, as M. King Hubbert a Shell geologist predicted in 1956. He said that this is a natural geological process, that the pressure in the oil wells diminishes and even after pumping water or carbon in the wells that you'll eventually get less and less oil out every year.

This is impossible because there is an infinite amount of oil in the ground. It's created in the center of the earth.

I think the oil companies are choosing to produce only half as much oil as they did in the 1970's so they can run up the price. Then they'll save their oil for when it's really expensive.

Chevron claims at their "Move Past Oil Site":
http://www.willyoujoinus.com/issues/alternatives/
that 33 out of the world's 48 major oil producers have passed their peak oil production and are in decline like the United States. Here is the quote:

I think Chevron is lying to us all!! They're part of the SCAREMONGERING PHONEY Peak Oil crowd. They're trying to convince us, with Bush's help, that we're running out of oil. The elites are trying to run up the price so they can profit and make money off us little people.

It's all a grand conspiracy!!

Bottom line is that the U.S. could pump oil at 9.6 million barrels a day like they did in the 1970's if they wanted to, and we wouldn't have the problems we're having now.

The oil companies are CHOOSING to pump 4.2 million barrels less per day today than in 1970, even though they have brought on the Alaskan Slope and Gulf of Mexico oil since then!!

It's a crime!

America did not pass no phoney Peak Oil in 1970. Malarchy! Bologna sandwich!! Horse Manure!!!

It's all a conspiracy by dee elites!

Plus Chevron is lying by saying 33 of the 48 major oil producers have passed their peak oil, like the United States! BOLOGNA SANDWICH!!

Dang Conspiracy. We's needs a congressional investigashun!! I's tells ya!

Scaremongerers!!!

Jetflyer

Wow, you seem to know an awful lot about the earths supply of oil. I wish there were an infinite amount of oil in the ground like you say. So, oil is made at the center of the earth... Well, how fast does the earth produce this oil? Do you think it is being produced a lot faster than we are using it? I sure hope you're right but I highly doubt it. Specifically what process at the center of the earth are you talking about that creates oil? I would honestly like to know because I have never heard that one. Whether our oil is running out or not (it is), I'm going to enjoy it while I can. If it really is running out, what good is it for me to try and slow down my consumption of it by getting a little car that gets great mileage? Is it so our offspring can have a little trickle so they can go to the grocery store on their 150 mpg scooter? What's the point? It's still going to run out! I'm going to enjoy my gas hog muscle cars, and airplanes as long as there's oil to burn.

 

[jetflyer]

ABIOTIC OIL. Do a research. It's why peak oil will never happen. Because there's an infinite amount of oil from the center of the earth.

Jet