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$43 Dollar a barrel, new record.

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canyonblue

Everyone loves Southwest
Joined
Nov 26, 2001
Posts
2,314
Record oil deals fresh blow to airlines

By Matt Andrejczak, CBS.MarketWatch.com

Last Update: 2:31 PM ET July 28, 2004

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- The floundering airline industry suffered another blow Wednesday as crude oil prices hit a record high $43 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Continental Airlines , Delta Air Lines , Northwest Airlines and United Airlines are especially vulnerable to the spike in oil because they are the least hedged against rising fuel prices, one analyst said.

Surging oil prices might also jeopardize restructuring at Delta and US Airways Group, which are frantically searching for ways to cut costs to avoid tumbling into bankruptcy.

Shares of the AMEX Airline Index skidded to a 13-month low on the news, slipping 3.15 percent in mid-afternoon trades.

Airlines had expected to improve financially this year with the rebound in travel and cost cutting. But soaring oil prices soured second-quarter earnings at all airlines, even profitable discount carriers like Southwest Airlines and JetBlue Airways.

"Everything they are saving is being given back in fuel costs," said Benchmark Co. analyst Helane Becker.

In the latest quarter, fuel costs rose 54 percent year-over-year at Delta, 42 percent at American, 34 percent at Northwest, and 29 percent at Continental. JetBlue and Southwest reported a 22 percent increase.

For the rest of the year, Southwest is best guarded against exorbitant oil prices. About 80 percent of its fuel costs are capped below $24 a barrel. JetBlue is 45 percent hedged at $25 a barrel, according to the filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

By contrast, Northwest is only 25 hedged at prices ranging from $34 to $41 a barrel. Continental is 45 percent hedged between $32 and $40 a barrel.

US Airways, whose fuel hedge positions helped boost its second-quarter results, said it is about 33 percent hedged at prices of less than $26 a barrel.

Delta projects its 2004 fuel costs will be $680 million higher than 2003, while American estimates it will pay $268 million more for fuel.

After the latest round of dismal earnings results, surging fuel prices do not bode well for what is expected to be a challenging third-quarter for airlines. Weak ticket prices and too much capacity is hurting yields at most airlines.

Said BB&T Capital Markets analyst Tony Cristello: "Recovery of any magnitude is pushed off well into 2005."
 
due to Russian crisis

http://money.cnn.com/2004/07/28/markets/oil.reut/index.htm

once again, if "Supply" is reduced and Demand is not, prices go up

Dont be terribly shocked to see it hit $50, especially if Iraq gets worse and middle east stability is perceived (perception IS reality in the market) to be in trouble

additional article about "tanker demand" and how "oil demand picks up toward year-end"

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000085&sid=ao5GFpf_Ekmo&refer=europe

Supply = No more increases (or) additional reductions + Demand = same (or) Increase = Higher Price for the commodity
 
Well, the answer is clear! Since the Russian government ordered Yukos to stop all pumping of crude crude oil due to some tax issues, 1.5 million barrels a day come off the world market. We have no other choice than to invade Russia. After all, we know they possess WMD with operational nukes!

War!
 
Crude Oil

So here I go again...the american flying public sees the same news we see here...oil is going up.....pump prices will go up....they will pay the price.....they will gripe and moan about it.....then they will continue there normal life style....this applies to all of us.......

So why the heck cant we raise ticket prices the same way the gas stations do.....to cover those increases in the cost of doing business????? they would expect it.....just like at the gas pump...shirley they dont think the local gas station is going to sell it and cut out its profit....So why do we??

just like above they will gripe and blame the OPEC' ers....for the higher prices...

Airlines need to protect the livelyhood of its employees...stop taking away because of uncontrollable market swings....its not going to get any better....at least for a while...

Rant off
 
Last edited:
Col Bill

No they WON’T just continue to gripe and pay the price. People start driving less miles, car pool, plan shopping trips ahead of time, etc. In case you have not heard, large SUV and Pick up trucks sales have started to slide. Folks are starting to be acutely aware of gasoline costs. Suddenly a VW Rabbit is looking a lot more appealing to buyers than a Cadillac Escalade or Lincoln Navigator. Beyond the price at the pump, some are fearful of a return to gas ration coupons as during WWII. If that ever happens, it won’t matter how wealthy you are; if you get an A, B, or C colored gas coupon, that’s all you're allowed to purchase.

The same goes for flying. Pax can (and do) put off discretionary flying, and businesses start to kill trips for their people when ticket prices rise too much for the budget. The market determines ticket prices, not some altruistic thought about what an airline employee “deserves”

BTW, The airline's only fiduciary responsibility is to its share holders, not it’s employees. Every business in America will pay as little as it can, and still attract the quality of employee it perceives it needs to effectively run its business. Competition for quality employees is what prevents brain surgeons from having to work for minimum wage, just as much as competition for a major league pitcher does.
 
rvsm410 said:
...shirley they dont think the local gas station is going to sell it and cut out its profit....So why do we??


They might even jack it up a little bit.........and don't call me shirley....
 
$50.00 a barrel would be great news. The faster we weed out the weak the quicker the industry recovers. Then, we might have an industry that's worth making into a career.
 

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