2006-2007?

[80drvr]

mr. general,

if song were profitable then delta would submit those numbers to wall street to prove their new and improved concept (a LCC within a major) has been a success. it has not. why?

hub and spoke is one of the most inefficient business models ever establish. ask any industry expert. compare southwest business plan to that of any major. point to point makes money, hub and spoke does not. the numbers and efficiency speaks for themselves.

jetblue's future gates (or any other future airline) situation is not a problem. you seem to forget about united and us airways situation. they will not be keeping all those gates they horde at certain airports. therefore someone will have to occupy and pay the bill.

the only way the major's will be able to profitably defend their turf is if they totally change their business model. (bringing airplanes out of the desert when they are still losing money will not help)

Ok, I'll bite. Why is the hub and spoke the most inefficient business model ever. If someone flies from BUF to JFK and then gets on a plane to LGB, it that inefficient?

 

[dlredline]

the JB guys sure are confident and seem to have alot of spite for the carriers that wouldn't hire them or let them go. Their confidence reminds me of the pilots from the big boys during the late 90's. Its all a cycle. One start up has done well since it started. SWA is it guys. Best of luck, but be careful in your hate for everyone else. All you do is fly the planes, your boss is in control of your future....hope he stays as good as he seems so far.

Find me a post where a JetBlue pilot showed "spite" for a fellow aviator. And for the record, I had job offers from 4 seperate "majors" during my career before getting furloughed from the one I chose, after 15 years with that carrier. I hold no ill will (or "hate" as you put it) toward any pilot or airline, and though I don't wear glasses, they certainly wouldn't be rose colored if I did. Am I proud to be where I am? You bet! Hopefully you (and everyone here) can say the same. Please be careful how you generalize people until you've had a chance to walk (or fly) in their shoes.

Redline

 

[Ty Webb]

I agree with the General . . . for the most part, and also with Andy, although I think re-training 100 a month is much more realistic.

Safe to say, though, if they absolutely HAD to have those pilots on line, they'd get whatever waivers and concessions were necessary, but I think the focus will be on achieving a profit then maintaining reasonable growth, which means trainng costs will need to be managed and many of those pilots will be returning to different aircraft, unless they can get union concessions.

 

[Andy]

$600M. Wow!!! That's a whole lot of money. I guess as you continue to grow those types of large infrastructure expenses are necessary.

A bit off topic, but that in a nutshell is the difference between LCC startups and legacy carriers. When legacy carriers expand their infrastructure, the costs are incremental. When LCC startups expand their infrastructure, the costs are exponential. The cost of this project is more than all of JBLU's cash on hand (from 3Q earnings release, $574 million cash and equivalents; unknown how much is restricted).
In that same article, it mentions that JBLU is building a $45 million hangar at JFK, due to be completed in 2004.
Another advantage that startup LCCs enjoy during their infancy is sweetheart deals with airport authorities. As the LCCs become profitable (and when legacy carriers lean on said airport authorities), those sweetheart deals evaporate.

 

[46Driver]

I'm gonna disagree on that last statement. Many of the airports have been held hostage by high airfares from legacy carriers and have no desire to repeat the past as it will affect the business's within the city. Also, if a city does not give the LCC a sweetheart deal, there are plenty of others nearby that will.

 

[Daedalus]

Hostage:

Not everyone that disagrees with you is a touchy jetBlue pilot. Your postings are indeed revealing about your feelings in regard to other pilots. While you're free to make yourself look like a tool, it doesn't mean you can walk in and out of this forum without some people taking you to task.

In case you haven't checked the calendar lately its almost 2004, not 1964. Your view of the "perfect" world is just a waning memory of an industry that will never see those good ol days again. I don't have a problem with LCCs. They exist because people like you created the environment to let them come in and beat you at your own game. Your generalizations about who populates the growing ranks of LCC pilot rosters are wrong and out of order. You are obviously a person who feels very threatened by the inevitable changes in this business.

 

[lowecur]

andrew

incremental/exponential.

It's called financing. When you buy $7B worth of aircraft, you don't use your cash reserves to pay for them. These are long term debts, that offer a return on investment.

Is Jetblue going to bypass the expenses that most of the majors had to incur in order to grow? No. But, what they have done is set up a combined corporate culture/business model that will translate into profits for many years.

Is Jetblue going to experience a reduction of profit in the next few years? It depends on how the economy does, and how quickly US Airways morphs. US Airways must change their business model in the next 6 months (they need to cut their system by at least a third). This means giving up gates and slots in many major markets. If they don't, they are quickly headed for Chapt 7 by the middle of 2005. Either way, Jetblue will be the major winner.

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

From what I've heard, NWA will begin recalling pilots in spring, 2004. It will take about 2.5 years to recall everyone. Once the recalls are over, I've heard, they will be hiring LOTS of pilots.

So, in about fall/end of year of 2006 NWA should be hiring a lot of pilots. That fits in with the 2007 being a good hiring year.

CLiff
DTW

 

[tbkane]

ATPCliff,

I sure hope your numbers are correct, because as one does so do the rest. If NW can have everyone back in 2.5 years I would imagine so can DAL. I have not heard one person say anything about recalls there though.

If you don't mind me asking what is your source?

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

One of the guys I fly with is furloughed from NWA. I also commute on NWA almost exclusivley, so I ask every crew (almost) what the situation is at NWA.

CLiff
DTW