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Ok I will say this again........Retirement and job replacement are a fallacy at the Major Level. Major Airlines are only continuing to shrink and downsize their fleets. Jobs at the Major Level will not be a par for par replacement. The best scenario many should hope for is growth at the regional level as Mainline operators continue to grow shared risk operations and reduce largebody aircraft. With a severely depressed economy and virtual meetings taking a leap in popularity I would expect Air travel to remain at its current capacity. Capacity, not retirement is what determines job replacement during retirement surges. In short I think people are far to optimistic that there is a retirement wave to be seen that will offer movement for many stranded in the seniority lists. Remember Capacity "replacement" "AT THE MAJORS" is what will yield movement.
 
Ok I will say this again........Retirement and job replacement are a fallacy at the Major Level. Major Airlines are only continuing to shrink and downsize their fleets. Jobs at the Major Level will not be a par for par replacement. The best scenario many should hope for is growth at the regional level as Mainline operators continue to grow shared risk operations and reduce largebody aircraft. With a severely depressed economy and virtual meetings taking a leap in popularity I would expect Air travel to remain at its current capacity. Capacity, not retirement is what determines job replacement during retirement surges. In short I think people are far to optimistic that there is a retirement wave to be seen that will offer movement for many stranded in the seniority lists. Remember Capacity "replacement" "AT THE MAJORS" is what will yield movement.

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