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Delta Looking Strong Over The Long Haul

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Hamfighter

Well-known member
Joined
May 20, 2007
Posts
232


Delta Looking Strong Over The Long Haul


Posted: May 03, 2011 09:52 AM by Ryan C. Fuhrmann
Airline operator Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL) reported a first quarter loss on Tuesday due to a jump in fuel costs. Sales were also hit by severe winter weather and the natural disasters in Japan, but still rose in the double digits. Investors remain rightfully worried about near-term fuel costs, but several factors suggest Delta is entering a period of consistent and sustainable profit generation. TUTORIAL: Mergers And Acquisitions 101
First Quarter Recap
Revenue rose 13% to $7.7 billion, as passenger and cargo sales increased in the double digits and accounted for the vast majority of the top line. Management stated that passenger trends would have been even stronger had it not been for severe winter weather and the natural disasters in Japan.
Operating expense growth outpaced the sales improvement, rising 16% to $7.8 billion. The primary culprit was fuel costs, which jumped 29% to $2.2 billion. Costs related to contracting flights to other airlines and maintenance costs also rose sharply. As a result, operating loss was over $90 million after $68 million in positive profits during last year's first quarter.
Interest expense fell 10% but was still hefty at $221 million. This pushed the net loss further into the red at $318 million, or 38 cents per diluted share.
Outlook
For the full year, analyst project sales will grow 8% and exceed $34 billion. Earnings are currently projected at $1.22 per share, or up approximately 66% from 2010 levels.
Bottom Line
Despite the income state loss, Delta said it generated $452 million in free cash flow, or 54 cents per diluted share. And for all of 2010, it generated just over $1.80 per diluted share in free cash flow. Rising fuel costs are the current concern, but management has stated it will be increasing fares, flight surcharges, and reining in capacity to better control costs.
With a share price hovering around $10 per share, Delta trades at single-digit earnings and free cash flow multiples. Debt levels are still lofty at $14.5 billion but management has ambitions to pay it down to closer to $10 billion within a few years with excess cash flow.
Investors remain skeptical about the going concern value of airlines and are pricing them as if they will never generate meaningful returns for shareholders. Yet Delta's merger with Northwest and United's merger with Continental to create United Continental (NYSE:UAL) have created two giant carriers that were cash-flow positive in 2010 and likely will remain so as the economy continues to improve. (For related reading, see The Merger - What To Do When Companies Converge.)
Southwest (NYSE:LUV) also merged with AirTran to further rationalize industry capacity and there could be further deals, such as a merger between American Airlines parent AMR (NYSE:AMR) and U.S. Airways (NYSE:LCC). This combined with an improving economy and new forms of revenue in the form of baggage, seat and boarding priority, and charges for food, should allow the larger players, such as Delta, to offset rising fuel costs and consistently generate profits. If this happens, investors should reward the industry with higher profit multiples.
Use the Investopedia Stock Simulator to trade the stocks mentioned in this stock analysis, risk free!


Long quote...sorry about that.
Nice to see some overall positive news.
So, two big problems: Cost of fuel and "contracting flights to other airlines." If only we had some control over one of those "culprits."
*Hint* It isn't cost of fuel.
 
BTW, I flew for "Delta Connection" for the better part of a decade...not hating on the pilot group in any way. My point is, grow mainline, hire the rj captains, and let regionals become regionals.
 
Don't show this to Southwest guys, they think DL will sink because "they are coming to town......" Whatever.


OYS
 
A $318 million loss on fuel is a big number. Imagine how much they'd make if they parked the fleet!

Gup
 
$13 billion in long term debt. This is good?

Delta has paid down $2.5 billion in debt in the last 18 months, and will bring it down from $15 billion to $10 billion in the next couple years. That actually sounds pretty good. Southwest just added debt by buying Airtran, and more will be added trying to pay more for each Airtran employee. How about all of those new 737-800s? All cash? Right.


OYS
 
A $318 million loss on fuel is a big number. Imagine how much they'd make if they parked the fleet!

Gup

I doubt it was all fuel. Reread the article, it stated Japan and ice storms in ATL contributed to the loss. The Japan problems were toughest on Delta and United, but loads are getting better along with yields there according to the conference call. You guys just inherited Airtran's weaker balance sheet. That won't help yours. You can do better than that Mother GUP!


OYS
 
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Amen...Madjack.....

But the oil did knock out the wannabe players last round who were dragging the rest of the industry down. Perhaps with all the consolidation, this sector can finally price it's product to cover it's costs.
 
Amen Bill. It'd be nice to see some of these outfits with terrible pay gone. They really bring the profession down. I'm not pointing any fingers...but I am looking in your direction Delta.
 
Aww Tanker.....

Go get the C.O. some coffee and when you return.....go back to South Beach and get crackin' on those Free Bjs you give out so you can get your dignity back!
 
DL/NW Merger Long Complex Path

By JAD MOUAWAD, New York Times
Published: May 18, 2011

ATLANTA — How many chimes should pilots ring to signal the plane is about to land — two or four? Should flight attendants first pour drinks into a cup or just hand over the can?

Airline mergers are complex and tough to pull off — witness the troubled marriage of People Express and Continental Airlines in the 1980s or the continuing problems in integrating America West and US Airways six years after their merger. So when Delta Air Lines acquired Northwest three years ago, executives knew they would have to resolve major labor, technology and financial issues.

What they had not fully anticipated were the thousands of tiny details that go mostly unnoticed by passengers but can make the difference between a successful merger and a failed one.

All airlines have their own way of doing things, developed over time and through labor negotiations. All have specific working rules, flying procedures, maintenance schedules and computer programs. And all have their own cultures. Delta always thought of itself as the gracious host. Hence its flight attendants poured the requested drinks. Northwest was the practical carrier; its attendants just handed over the can.

“It was like Noah’s ark out here,” said Peter Wilander, an executive at Delta responsible for in-flight services. “We had two of everything.”

Delta executives agreed earlier this month to discuss the minutiae of the Northwest merger to make the broader point that combining two airlines is an incredibly difficult task. The Delta-Northwest tie-up is now widely seen as a success, and that view laid the groundwork for two other, more recent mergers: United Airlines with Continental last fall and Southwest Airlines and AirTran, which was completed just last week.

“If you look at the history of mergers, the assumption was that you couldn’t do them successfully,” said Richard Anderson, Delta’s chief executive. “Everybody had come to the conclusion that these things are too big, too complex and too unwieldy to manage.”

Delta’s merger with Northwest was announced in April 2008 and closed in October of that year after receiving regulatory and shareholder approval. And yet it still took 14 more months for the airlines to fly as a single carrier, in January 2010.

Delta scored a major point by getting its pilot unions to agree to a common contract by the time the merger closed. Many analysts said this gave the airline a critical advantage by getting a crucial labor group on board from the start.

But that did not put an end to Delta’s labor issues. Flight attendant representatives accused the airline of using intimidation tactics after they lost a bid to unionize the carrier’s work force in November. The matter is under review by the National Mediation Board, which could call a new election.

Meanwhile, flight attendants from Delta and Northwest continue to work under separate contracts, each with their own work rules, and they cannot be scheduled to fly on the same airplanes.

And some merger-related work is still going on. The last Northwest plane was repainted only six weeks ago. Delta expects to spend another year completing an inventory of all airplane parts and maintenance procedures into a new database.

Each airline has hundreds of different technologies that book seats, print tickets or dispatch crews that need to be integrated. Failure here can leave thousands of travelers without a seat if bookings are misplaced.

Delta’s chief information officer, Theresa Wise, said the airline had to merge 1,199 computer systems down to about 600, including one — a component within the airline’s reservation system — dating from 1966.

The challenge, she said, was to switch the systems progressively so that passengers would not notice. Ms. Wise, who has a doctorate in applied mathematics, devised a low-tech solution: she set up a timeline of the steps that had to be performed by pinning colored Post-it notes on the wall of a conference room.

A major switch happened when the new airline canceled all Northwest’s bookings and transferred them to newly created Delta flights in January 2010. It required computer engineers to perform 8,856 separate steps stretched out over several days.

More than 140,000 electronic devices, including printers, had to be replaced. The size of the paper at airport kiosks was even checked to make sure it could print boarding passes for Delta’s new flights.

“This sounds insane,” Ms. Wise said. “But each reservation system has its own personality.”

Financially, the merger provided a big boost to Delta’s bottom line. Delta posted its highest profit in a decade last year. But even as the integration into a single carrier was hitting its stride, Delta’s operations struggled.

The airline had the worst record among large carriers for on-time arrivals last year, and it accounted for a third of all customer complaints, the worst of any airline, for categories like service and lost bags, according to the Transportation Department.

When United and Continental announced their own tie-up, in May 2010, they picked a hybrid approach to emphasize that the combination was a merger of equals: the new airline would keep its headquarters in Chicago but would be led by Jeff Smisek, Continental’s chairman, who was a driving force behind the merger. The carrier’s new livery combines Continental’s globe on the tail with United’s name on the fuselage.

United and Continental continue to operate as separate airlines until they receive a single operating certificate from the Federal Aviation Administration by the end of the year. At that point, the new United will overtake Delta as the nation’s largest carrier.

Unlike Delta, however, United has not secured a new contract for all its pilots yet, some of whom recently picketed in front of nine major airports across the country, including Los Angeles International Airport. Mr. Smisek said during a recent conference call that the airline had made some progress in the merger. Passengers can now print boarding passes from either airline at all United and Continental kiosks, and loyalty programs are getting more closely aligned.

“I remain committed to reaching agreements that are fair to our co-workers and fair to the company,” Mr. Smisek said on the call. “And I want to reach those agreements promptly.”

Likewise, Southwest closed the purchase of AirTran on May 2, and quickly appointed a new leadership team to handle the combination.

“All good things take time and change won’t be immediate, many important decisions are ahead, many questions still need answers,” Gary Kelly, the chief executive of Southwest, said in a video statement after the deal closed. “Once integration is complete, we will have one brand, one customer experience, one livery, one operation under a single operating certificate and one mission.”

If Delta’s experience is any indication, it will be a long road for Southwest and United, littered with seemingly trivial questions.

Pilots at Delta, for instance, used to ring the cabin bell four times as they began their final approach, while those at Northwest rang it twice. The merged airline now signals just two times.

Likewise, the food catering operations of both airlines had 8,000 pages of one-line codes describing everything from soda orders to the price of strawberries. Each airline had different codes, however, and paid different prices for everything.

No decision, seemingly, was too small. Before the merger, Delta used to cut its limes in 10 slices while Northwest cut them 16 ways. The lime debate was even mentioned at a meeting attended by Mr. Anderson, the chief executive, who was told it saved Northwest about $500,000 a year. In the end, Delta stuck with its 10 slices. But the airline also realized that it had been loading more limes on its flights than it needed. So it is now carrying fewer limes.

Delta, based in Atlanta, used to serve the hometown drink, Coke. Northwest, Pepsi. “That was an easy one,” Mr. Anderson recalled. The airline stuck with Coke but adopted Pepsi snacks.

One other issue has apparently stumped everyone. Delta and Northwest each used different trash bags in their cabins. Northwest’s was large, held up better and was easy to use. Delta’s was smaller, like a high-end shopping bag. The airline is still working on finding the perfect bag.

“The amount of work is boring beyond belief,” Mr. Wilander said. “It is also critical to the airline.”
 
Southwest and United don't want to try the joint contract first approach, which worked well before. Not good, unless you want to turn out like USair.


OYS
 
Pretty close to the same loss American had. Wow!


“These higher fuel prices are going to be the new normal,” he said. Despite the headwinds, Delta should produce as much as $700 million in free cash flow from its operations in the current quarter as new revenue initiatives are already paying dividends, he added.

Booking trends will remain robust in nearly all areas of Delta’s network for the summer, with a demand recovery in Japan likely to further strengthen this fall as that country recovers from the earthquake and tsunami, Ed said.

And he’s optimistic that regulators will soon approve a slot swap between Delta and US Airways that will give Delta a bigger presence at New York-LaGuardia. The long-pending transaction would boost Delta’s New York market share.



Bye Bye--General Lee
 
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Gen,

I don't care how many bold fonts you use, it was a horrible loss. Sorry.

Scope,

Why don't you just try to scope those 800 RJ's that you have? Oh the irony!!

RF
 

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