With respect, something does change for that FO in this case if he works for SWA. The missing factor is the age of the pilots inserted above him (AAI is a younger group). An argument can be made that the new bigger company will also produce fewer upgrade because upgrades for growth are twice as many as for attrition, and growing beyond 700 aircraft will be difficult to do for a number of reasons. This is not as clear cut an argument though.
Another factor not included is the 717s that AAI brings to the transaction. This aircraft does not have a pay rate at SWA yet. It may in fact pay less than the 737. If that is the case a large number of the jobs being brought over are not worth as much to SWA pilots, further damaging a current SWA pilot.
OK3,
Hey PAL, I hope your day is going well today. Anyway, I think you underestimate what AT brings to the table. They bring slots at airports you do not have access to. (DCA, ATL) They bring access to the largest and busiest airport in the world (ATL). They give you a lot more slots and gates at LGA. Those are things you cannot have otherwise right now. Next, they give you access to a lot more cities all over the East, and INTL flying. That INTL flying is something your own management doesn't really trust you guys with currently (as seen with INTL codeshares that are now bust). All of that is significant. Also, a combination of the two of you gets rid of one of you (AT) which means one less LCC competitor--another plus for SWA.
As far as younger AT pilots upgrading before you, that is too bad, but that really means nothing to an arbitrator. That happened in both the US/AWA merger and the DL/NWA merger. The arbitrator(s) will decide what is fair, and they are a "neutral" by nature, so they will listen to the facts presented by the attornies, and then make a decison, and then write a long brief about their decision. So, you can read all about it and see the reasoning. After that point, you can blame the arbitrator(s), and your lawyers.
Then you bring up the 717. The DC9 at NWA didn't have a DL payrate initially, but it was all done in the Joint Contract, which is done PRIOR to the SLI. Everyone learned with the USAir/AWA fiasco that you NEED to do a joint contract first. Even now the USAir East guys (wheenies) are paid less than the AWA guys, on the same equipment. They never did a joint contract, and now there is chaos. The reason you do a joint contract first is because it can dampen the sting of the eventual SLI. But, that Joint Contract will mainly help the AT guys, primarily because they are paid a lot less. The NWA pilots gave up their pay in BK to keep their pensions intact, and that was opposite at DL. Well, the NWA guys KEPT their pensions, and also got a 30% raise PER HOUR for pay, and more did even better when they upgraded to a larger plane that paid even more than they were making before. Even with all of that, the arbitrators looked at the cases brought by each attorney, and then made a ruling. That is the way it goes. The 717 btw, is about the same size as a 737-500. How much does the 737-500 pay compared to the 737-700 at SWA? Expect the 717 to make the same.
Regardless, I think ALL OF YOU ARE FANTASTIC PEOPLE. REALLY, JUST A SWELL BUNCH OF JOES. YOU REALLY ARE ALL TOP GUNS IN MY BOOK. And, if you have time today, try to do something special or nice for someone, like buying that old guy on the bus a stick of deodorant, because really, his old lady wants him to smell better. See ya!
Bye Bye--General Lee