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Ray Neidl raises his rating on AirTran

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snuba

Member
Joined
Feb 25, 2006
Posts
17
This guy goes from bagging us to upgrading us. His comments are about halfway down the artical.
.
NEW YORK (AP) -- Frontier Airlines, the latest airline to file for bankruptcy, was pushed over the brink by a problem that could spread to other carriers: credit card troubles.
The carrier on Friday blamed its Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on a cash squeeze caused by its credit card processing company, which has decided to keep a larger chunk of the Denver airline's ticket revenue.
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B2625737.3;abr=!ie4;abr=!ie5;sz=300x250;ord=1207974579671994
if(window.yzq_d==null)window.yzq_d=new Object();window.yzq_d['xJbERtG_XLc-']='&U=13bdfamqh%2fN%3dxJbERtG_XLc-%2fC%3d626899.12331415.12723508.1383221%2fD%3dLREC%2fB%3d5133107';The move ends a policy under which the processor, First Data Corp, passed on most money from ticket sales to Frontier. The change is intended to protect First Data, which would be on the hook for ticket refunds if Frontier stops flying. Frontier plans to continue operating while in bankruptcy.
First Data's decision represents a new threat to an industry facing jet fuel prices that have soared 74 percent in one year, a new government focus on safety that has grounded thousands of flights in recent days and tight competition and falling demand that, combined, have limited carriers' ability to raise prices.
"It's just a god-awful time for this industry," said Bob Mann, an independent airline consultant based in Port Washington, N.Y. "This illustrates the uncertainty of capital markets to a T."
ATA Airlines, Skybus Airlines and Aloha Airlines all have filed for bankruptcy in recent weeks. Champion Air plans to shut down and MAXjet Airways went bankrupt in December. All cited some combination of high fuel prices and falling demand, among other factors.
While it's not uncommon that banks processing airline credit card transactions hold a certain amount of a carrier's proceeds in their own accounts until a passenger completes his or her travel, it is unusual for a processor to suddenly change its cash withholding policy, analysts say.
In the case of Frontier, the new requirement -- known in industry speak as a holdback -- was the proverbial straw that broke the camel's back.
"We believe that we currently have adequate cash on hand to meet our operating needs," Frontier Chief Executive Sean Menke said in a statement. "Unfortunately, our principal credit card processor very recently and unexpectedly informed us that, beginning on April 11, it intended to start withholding significant proceeds received from the sale of Frontier tickets."
Such a "change in established practices" would throw a serious wrench into Frontier's cash forecasts and business plan, Menke said. The bankruptcy filing prevents First Data from imposing the new cash withholding requirement, he said. The airline also threatened to sue First Data.
"The terms of our agreement with Frontier Airlines are not unique; they are considered standard industry practice and terms originally agreed upon by Frontier," First Data, of Greenwood Village, Colo., said in a statement.
"They do this because ... they're concerned that a carrier will use the proceeds in advance of travel occurring and then not have the funds to actually perform the travel," Mann said.
Companies such as First Data usually base cash withholding decisions on their own analysis of an airline's finances -- most airlines are contractually required to provide their processors with monthly cash flow reports and forecasts.
"They're doing the same thing that I'm doing," said Ray Neidl, an analyst at Calyon Securities who late last month expressed concern about Frontier's projected cash position. Earlier this week, the carrier said it had no concerns about bankruptcy. Credit card processors constantly review the credit profiles of the companies they serve, Neidl said.
But negative news reports and analyst research notes can also undermine a credit card company's confidence in an airline by contributing to fears that an airline's failure is imminent, said Mike Boyd, president of the Boyd Group consultancy in Evergreen, Colo.
"It could happen to any airline," Boyd said.
Shares of another discount carrier, AirTran Holdings Inc., tumbled more than 30 percent Friday as nervous investors wondered whether it too could face trouble.
After the market closed, AirTran issued a statement saying it is "in full compliance" with the terms of its credit card agreements, and has no holdbacks with any of its major credit card processors. The Orlando, Fla.-based company said its balance of cash and investments has grown to $358 million through the end of March, from $326 million at the end of last year.
President and Chief Executive Bob Fornaro called his company "one of the strongest low-cost carriers operating today" and said it has "ample balance sheet strength to support our operation."
Meanwhile, Neidl raised his rating on AirTran to "Add" from "Neutral" and said he does not believe the company is in any immediate danger of defaulting.
"We would use this opportunity to buy the stock since we believe AirTran has sufficient liquidity to survive through next year under the most likely scenario," Neidl wrote in a note to clients issued late Friday. The carrier's shares jumped 15 percent in after-hours trading.
Frontier's situation is not the first time credit card companies have imposed cash withholding requirements on airlines. Many did so in the months after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks because of worries about the industry. Several airlines, in fact, declared bankruptcy in the years after the attacks, due to the downturn in business and by the recession earlier this decade. Strict cash withholding requirements were a factor in Delta Air Lines Inc.'s 2005 bankruptcy.
Now analysts believe most larger airlines have sufficient cash to weather the current economic downturn and spike in fuel prices. The six largest airlines -- AMR Corp.'s American Airlines, Delta, UAL Corp.'s United Airlines, Northwest Airlines Corp., US Airways Group Inc. and Continental Airlines Inc. -- have a combined $20 billion in cash on their balance sheets, Mann said. Their credit card processors won't likely change withholding requirements unless there is a significant change in operating conditions.
It's the smaller companies with less cash that are more at risk of facing new cash withholding rules, analysts say.
On Friday, Calyon's Neidl dropped coverage of Mesa Air Group Inc., citing its small capitalization. Last week, Mesa said Delta planned to end a major contract-flying agreement and Mesa sued to keep the deal intact. Mesa has declined to comment on whether it faces bankruptcy.
Larger carriers canceled thousands of flights affecting more than a quarter of a million passengers this week to check electrical wiring in MD-80 aircraft. The inspections were required to comply with Federal Aviation Administration safety regulations.
American Airlines was the hardest hit with nearly 3,100 cancellations, including almost 600 on Friday. The airline said it will cancel an undetermined number of flights on Saturday, but expected to resume normal operations by Saturday night. The cancellations will cost American tens of millions of dollars, but Chief Executive Gerard Arpey said the carrier can withstand the losses.
AP Business Writer Adam Schreck in New York contributed to this report.
 
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I hope some day before I die, I get the chance to see this guy swing from the gallows for insider trading, using predatory scare, then upgrading tactics. F-ing Wall Street "Experts", who made them the "experts"?
 
Interesting call by Neidl in upgrading AAI. It's roughly twice the size of FRNT in terms of revenues and has roughly twice the cash on hand.
IIRC, USAirways had credit card processor issues that drove them to bankruptcy the first time.
Credit card processors are going to have cash flow data that you and I and analysts do not have access to. If any airline's on the border in terms of cash problems, a higher holdback is all it takes to drive a company into bankruptcy.

In analyst-speak, 'hold' means sell and 'add/buy' means hold. Strong buy means buy.
 
Airtran has no hold back from a credit card processor. How many times does that have to be posted before people stop using that bad information.
 
Airtran has no hold back from a credit card processor. How many times does that have to be posted before people stop using that bad information.

Right now. I guarantee you that there are holdback provisions in their contract with their processor. Frontier's processor was already holding back some of the purchases; what sent them to BK was an increase in holdback.
 
Right now. I guarantee you that there are holdback provisions in their contract with their processor.

Correct, and we're nowhere close to triggering those increased hold-back provisions. Check out the latest press release from the company. Our cash position has increased by $30 million during the first quarter and will continue to grow throughout the year according to the current estimates based on advanced bookings. Your alarmism is unwarranted in our company's case.
 
PCL, from page 30 of 10K:
LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES
At December 31, 2007 we had total cash, cash equivalents and short term investments of $318.0 million, which is an increase of $7.8 million compared to December 31, 2006. As of December 31, 2007 we also had $29.6 million of restricted cash and $8.2 million of long-term investments. Our primary sources of cash are from operating activities and primary uses of cash are for investing and financing activities.


They combined $318 mil with $8.2 min long term investments to come up with $326 mil in the press release. Long term investments aren't counted in liquidity. So we have no idea how much of the $358 mil is cash/equivalents and how much is long term investments. Long term investments are irrelevent in this context and should not have been included in that press release.
 
Considering that only $8.2 million was in long-term investments on Dec 31st, it's unlikely that much of the $30 million increase this quarter is in long-term investments.
 
PCL, it's probably nothing, but after reading Continental's March Operational Performance press release, the discrepancy makes me wonder.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080401/latu178.html?.v=20

The important part:
Continental ended the first quarter of 2008 with unrestricted cash and short-term investments balance of $2.51 billion. This balance excludes $237 million in par value of student loan-related auction rate securities that were previously classified as short-term investments on our consolidated balance sheets. These securities were reclassified as long-term investments during the quarter.
 
As you know, that's an extremely unusual circumstance. I seriously doubt that we'll have anything of that sort happen during the quarter, especially after a press release was issued just yesterday that painted a rosy picture for investors. If that sort of information was forthcoming, then I seriously doubt management would have painted such a rosy picture in their latest press release. Most companies nowadays are too concerned about liability to try something like that.
 
Welcome to wallstreet boys..... There was once a quote some of you may have heard... Goes something like this "We have nothing to fear but fear itself". Isn't it amazing how one single analyst can swing stocks by so much??? Yet AAI is up 29.54% in after hours trading because of new coments by the same anaylyst that caused all of this in the first place... Most anyalists have upgraded AAI in the last couple months.. Yet one spells doome and gloome and look what the stock does... Pretty amazing isn't it... The market really is legalized gambling.. Some people know how to do it, and some people don't... Just like poker...
 
Turn those machine back ON!

one single analyst can swing stocks by so much??? Yet AAI is up 29.54% in after hours trading because of new coments by the same anaylyst that caused all of this in the first place...

.. Some people know how to do it, and some people don't... Just like poker...

"Get those brokers back in here!! Turn those machines back ON!"

Too funny . . . . what a bunch of lemmings.

TW
 
As you know, that's an extremely unusual circumstance. I seriously doubt that we'll have anything of that sort happen during the quarter, especially after a press release was issued just yesterday that painted a rosy picture for investors. If that sort of information was forthcoming, then I seriously doubt management would have painted such a rosy picture in their latest press release. Most companies nowadays are too concerned about liability to try something like that.

General Electric painted a pretty rosy picture about earnings a month ago.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/04/11/news/companies/ge_earnings/index.htm?postversion=2008041112
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- General Electric - widely viewed as a proxy for the U.S. economy - posted a surprising first-quarter earnings miss Friday, deflating investors' hopes that the conglomerate could rise above a continued economic slowdown.
GE also lowered its full-year earnings guidance, and its second-quarter forecast fell short of analysts' expectations.
Shares of GE (GE, Fortune 500) - a Dow Jones industrial average component - tumbled about 12% in Friday trading, and the results sent the stock market tumbling.
GE reported net income fell 6% to $4.3 billion after reporting income of $4.6 billion in the first quarter of 2007.
Earnings from continuing operations were 44 cents per share, down from 48 cents per share a year earlier and well below the 51-cent-a-share consensus forecast of analysts polled by Thomson Financial.
"This came as a surprise to analysts, because the company reinforced its expectations for the first quarter in March," said Jefferies & Co. analyst Robert Schenosky.
 
General Electric painted a pretty rosy picture about earnings a month ago.

Go read some statements about what caused the earnings surprise. The Bear Stearns fiasco caused their financial services divisions to have huge problems very late in the quarter. That was an extraordinary event that changed their earnings at the very end of the quarter. Had that not taken place, they probably would have met earnings expectations. Unless some highly unusual and unpredictable event takes place for AirTran's business, there's no reason to believe that yesterday's press release was anything but accurate. We'll have the results for the quarter in another week.
 
PCL, using ARSs as a short term cash equivalent isn't that uncommon. The failure rate on these auctions have gone from near zero over the last decade to greater than 50% in 2008. They first caught my eye last year when I read about a Canadian company who put their short term money in an ARS which failed. It almost resulted in them being unable to supply their workers in the north with food for the winter.
The problems in the credit market problems are no longer extremely unusual.

I haven't pulled apart GE's earnings yet, but there are a number of problems, including their 2 cent miss on the non-financial side. Their forecast for the financial side for the second quarter is also bad. What, specifically, was blamed on Bear Stearns?
 
They blamed the Bear Stearns fiasco for basically locking up the credit markets and destroying their credit business completely for the last few weeks of the quarter. Apparently everything was looking on-track until the week that Bear Stearns practically collapsed. After that, they found it incredibly difficult to get any business done.

As for AAI and ARSs, the question isn't really whether they are common, the question is the likelihood of AAI's $30 million cash growth being invested in these types of securities. In the past, AAI has specifically listed ARSs in their 10-K filings, but I don't think there have been any listed in several years. None were listed in 2007. That would tend to indicate that those investments were shifted to other investment vehicles and haven't been revisited in some time.
 
They blamed Bear for locking up the credit markets? That's BS. No wonder their stock was down so much.
if anything, the borderline illegal actions taken by the Fed have significantly eased the credit markets.
It sounds like they had to go mark to market on some of their paper. There's been way too much mark to fantasy going on.

PCL, I don't know how much of AAI's cash/equivalents are in ARSs. If not there, where has AAI been putting their equivalents over the last several years?
 
Here you go, Andy. I finally found the relevant information in the Annual Report:

In January 2008, we converted all of our investments in auction rate securities to investments in U.S. Treasury securities.
 
Here you go, Andy. I finally found the relevant information in the Annual Report:

In January 2008, we converted all of our investments in auction rate securities to investments in U.S. Treasury securities.

In one word: BRILLIANT!!!

No sarcasm intended. They dodged a HUGEASS bullet. The credit markets are cratering; the average american has no idea how bad it is.
The only place where I'd feel safe today is in treasuries. The timing on shifting to treasuries was damned near perfect.
 

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