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Future predictions of industry—Any advice

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MooneyPilot

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 10, 2004
Posts
84
Hello,

I'm looking for a little advice from some people that have some more experience in the industry. Possibly point me in the right direction. Give me some new ideas or options I didn’t think of. I am currently in the regionals as a FO, did the flight instructor, and got my 1500 dual given to see the mins drop at all the regionals. With all the talks of mergers, whats that mean for me? How much regional flying could be reduced? How important is it to stick it out and get my 1000PIC? As a flight instructor I worked hard to get my time to see the mins drop, could this also be potentially happen in the majors? If DAL a NW merge, how many potential pilots could be furloughed? With all the instability in the industry, what are the chances of getting hired at the majors in a reasonable time? Could I have missed my window? Better to fly corporate? Try overseas?

Any suggestions kindly appreciated
 
No one knows how things will turn out. If you can find a good corporate gig, it might be a strong move.

If you have never lived or flown overseas, you may want to start by visiting first, especially the middle east. It's not for everyone. It sounds good on paper, but the best thing to do is talk to guys who have tried it (see the international section on this forum).

NetJets is also extremely popular and extremely stable from what I understand, and you can choose from 100 cities to live in. Hard to beat.
 
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Mooney:

Not at all, in fact as a young guy you are in the "catbird seat."

Regional flying will be reduced as commodity prices force flying to larger aircraft. You want to make sure you make the cut to get on board as this next generation of airliner generates a wave of hiring at the operators of these new generation jets. My crystal ball indicates these new 100 to 150 seat jets will have a very positive effect on pilots' careers.

This is is no way intended to be arrogant, but just common sense. You probably meet the requirements and should consider applying now. While waiting for the call do things to improve your chances, Line Check Airman, IP, a Master's degree, Safety, there are many volunteer opportunities that look great on a resume. At the same time, do everything to stay out of trouble. (and away from controversy :rolleyes: although I'm a lousy example on that point)

Network your friends at airlines you aspire to work for. These boards have even helped a few people. You do not have to be a suck up, but friends do help friends.

The trick is to be the first hired. You can do it.
 
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Regional flying will be reduced as commodity prices force flying to larger aircraft.
Click to expand...

The opposite is more likely to be true. If domestic demand declines you can' reduce capacity by switching to larger equipment. While the unit cost is higher on an RJ it is still more profitable to run two 90% full RJs than one half full MD-80 or 737. Legacies also don't have the planes to take back the flying and aren't likely to spend the money to do so with half their flight schedules outsourced to the regionals.
 
Jon Rivoli said:
The opposite is more likely to be true. If domestic demand declines you can' reduce capacity by switching to larger equipment. While the unit cost is higher on an RJ it is still more profitable to run two 90% full RJs than one half full MD-80 or 737. Legacies also don't have the planes to take back the flying and aren't likely to spend the money to do so with half their flight schedules outsourced to the regionals.
Click to expand...
Unless they rationalize their hub structure like DAL/NWA are planning to do.
 
Future predictions? And all this time I've been trying to predict the past! ;)
 
MooneyPilot said:
Hello,

I'm looking for a little advice from some people that have some more experience in the industry. Possibly point me in the right direction. Give me some new ideas or options I didn’t think of. I am currently in the regionals as a FO, did the flight instructor, and got my 1500 dual given to see the mins drop at all the regionals. With all the talks of mergers, whats that mean for me? How much regional flying could be reduced? How important is it to stick it out and get my 1000PIC? As a flight instructor I worked hard to get my time to see the mins drop, could this also be potentially happen in the majors? If DAL a NW merge, how many potential pilots could be furloughed? With all the instability in the industry, what are the chances of getting hired at the majors in a reasonable time? Could I have missed my window? Better to fly corporate? Try overseas?

Any suggestions kindly appreciated
Click to expand...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PSxihhBzCjk
 
You got about as much chance in predicting this industry as you do picking the next lotto #'s. The best thing you can do is work toward your upgrade, learn as much as you can and when the time comes, make the best decisions based on QOL issues (bases close to home, family matters, etc.) after that just hope for the best, that's really all anybody can do. Oh one more thing, don't ever feel bad about working hard for minimums that no longer exist, you became a better pilot because of it. Just think about the all the ones that came before you, in the early 90's you needed 2000+ and at least 500 multi just to get into a small turboprop if you were lucky enough to even GET an interview. What you had to do really wasn't that bad.
 
Advice??? Open your own small business...stay away from employment at large companies...you will be downsized (right-sized) as soon as there is a "twenty something" willing to do your job for pennies on the dollar...pennies on the dollar and no benefits...just to break into the industry. If my nephew was getting out of college right now I'd tell him to look for a career away from aviation.
 
We may be in control of our airplane when we are at work but management controls how well our career turns out. We are at the mercy of the abilities of management. If management does a good job and the airline grows and prospers, our career does also. On the other hand if management doesn’t, our career suffers.

Our career expectations and advancement may change as top management makes decisions that may be excellent or poor.

Our career advancement may progress well for a period of years only to stagnate later, or start off poorly only to advance well later.

Past performance is not a prediction of future performance.

Trying to predict what airline is the best for you while trying to predict the next 30 years in this business is impossible.

When everything is said and done you have two choices available at any time, leave or stay.
 
Have you thought about a job with ATC. Gov't bennies, pension that won't go away, x-fer where you want to live. very old work force. good pay. everything that the airlines are losing.
 

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