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Southwest CEO talks mergers

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Old School 737

NG's now and it is A OK!!
Joined
Jun 13, 2005
Posts
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CEO says Southwest Airlines is ready for consolidation
07:25 AM CST on Friday, February 1, 2008

By TERRY MAXON / The Dallas Morning News
Southwest Airlines Co. chief executive Gary Kelly is talking more about the possibility of acquiring another airline.

Southwest is ready if and when the airline industry begins consolidating, Mr. Kelly said Thursday at an investment conference in New York.

"I think consolidation provides an opportunity for Southwest regardless of what we do," he said.

"We have enough exposure to other airlines in the U.S. that if they shrink, we'll benefit. And of course, I wouldn't eliminate the possibility that we would participate in some form or fashion in consolidation."

Some industry analysts have predicted that an industry shake-up is likely this year.

That speculation has been strengthened with reports in January that Delta Air Lines Inc. was talking to Northwest Airlines Corp. and UAL Corp. about a potential merger.

Even traditionally independent Southwest has joined in the chatter.

Past deals
Southwest bought Salt Lake City-based Morris Air Corp. in 1993 as well as Muse Air Corp. in 1985.

But while Morris was integrated into Southwest, Muse – later renamed TranStar Airlines Corp. – was kept separate until it was shut down in 1987.

Analysts have assumed that Southwest will look for another airline like Morris, a point-to-point carrier that exclusively flew Boeing 737s – which is to say, another airline that looks like Southwest.

But Mr. Kelly said an acquisition target wouldn't have to be an exact twin.

Asked whether Southwest was looking at smaller airplanes than the Boeing 737 for its own fleet, Mr. Kelly turned it into an answer about mergers.

More than the 737?
After repeating Southwest's consistent position that it likes the Boeing 737, Mr. Kelly told listeners at the Raymond James Growth Airline Conference that Southwest is willing to consider a partner that flies other types of airplanes.

"If there's an opportunity to acquire another carrier that does not have 737s, we have plans in mind about how we can deal with that," Mr. Kelly said.

"While that is an impediment to an acquisition, it's not a deal killer."

He said he doesn't know "exactly how we would resolve that. But at least in today's environment, where the aircraft market is still very, very hot, it wouldn't be too difficult thinking about switching out that fleet."

On the other hand, "I wouldn't foreclose the idea that we might operate a second fleet type, either," he added.

"But we have no desire to do that. I just want to point out that wouldn't be a deal killer."

Nothing's automatic
If one big network carrier buys another one, that doesn't automatically mean that Southwest has to do something, he told attendees in New York.

But Southwest "would be crazy" not to look at potential scenarios, he said.

"The problem with all this scenario planning is that they're infinite as to what might happen. You don't know what role the Justice Department might play and whether assets might be required to be divested and things of that nature," Mr. Kelly said.

He noted that when US Airways Group Inc. and America West Holdings Corp. merged in 2005, Southwest wasn't forced to do anything.

"They shrank 15 percent, and we gained market share," he said.

On a day when other airline shares rose, Southwest fell 17 cents to $11.71.
 
Where did Southwest gain market share? PIT? They added 737s to the fleet, and added service to some of the USAir hubs like PHL and PHX, but where did they gain market share and where did USAir leave besides PIT?

As far as the legacies merging and giving away market share, the only hubs that may be downsized for a DL/NWA combo would be CVG and MEM, two places where SWA does not go already. Do they want access to those cities? They could do it right now if they wanted to.

Bye Bye--General Lee
 
Unless your SWA with a market cap worth more than United, Delta, and NWA combined.


What is SWA's market cap compared to those three other airlines? SWA did just buy back $500 million in shares.

Bye Bye--General Lee
 
Talk is cheap.

Gup

Fuel isn't. Nor is fighting off new re-morphed enemies such as DAL-NWA or Cactus/US Air.

Had it not been for fuel hedges, SWA would have reported a loss this past quarter.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/5477647.html

No big deal, it is what it is. Big picture SWA is still doing very well.

BUT- SWA Fuel hedges will not last forever, I believe 2010 they pretty much are over with. 2009 (10 months away) the hedges are at like 20 or 25% hedged.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/04/14/AR2005041402803.html

Also observe that I believe SWA pilot contract is still undecided on since about 2006...I wonder what the mantra from management will be when oil is $100 a barrell and fuel hedges are running out, and the Age 65 (SWA supported this) results in XXX hundreds of salaried bodies still sitting up front getting paid $200 an hour.

So:

  • SWA Pilot Contract possibly signed off 2008 or 2009
  • 2009 also when fuel hedges really start to dry up
  • Age 60+ pilots at $200 hr now are not "going away" and some will stay five more years
  • Megacarriers formed by DAL/NWA, etc mergers are new "enemy" on battlefield
  • Never say never in the airline biz
All of this is coming to a head in 2008-2010 time frame.

On the flip side, SWA is well run, and if any company can weather a storm, SWA can, and come thru it improved and better than it was before.

Nobody can predict anything anymore in the airline business, but it is fairly accurate that the next couple years could be very interesting for all the carriers.
 
F

BUT- SWA Fuel hedges will not last forever, I believe 2010 they pretty much are over with. 2009 (10 months away) the hedges are at like 20 or 25% hedged.
.


This old saw? When can we finally put this to bed? Fuel Hedging is a business strategy ... We won't "run out", we are constantly searching the market, and, if the bean counters think it is the right time/price, we buy more.

3 years ago everyone was saying we'd run out in 2007, 3 years from now they'll be saying we run out in 2015.

This doesn't mean we're immune from expensive fuel, it is hurting us. Just not as much as it hurts everyone else.
 
The fuel hedges won't run out. They are ongoing. Even though today's prices are sky-high, it's still almost certainly cheaper than it will be 5 years from now.

Remember, they don't have to find cheap fuel. They only need to find it cheaper than what everybody else is paying.
 
The fuel hedges won't run out. They are ongoing. Even though today's prices are sky-high, it's still almost certainly cheaper than it will be 5 years from now.

Remember, they don't have to find cheap fuel. They only need to find it cheaper than what everybody else is paying.

What exactly does SWA have hedged? Have they been hedging oil at 90?
 
Looks like SWA is biding their time watching this consolidation stuff to work itself out. I'm sure they are licking their chops as the legacies abandon the domestic market. This whole thing could work out quite well for SWA and they could be a growth airline again by the end of the year.

p.s. Someone better tell SWA that their fuel hedges are running out. I don't think they have a concept of time. If it weren't for the fine folks of FI, they wouldn't have remembered to continue hedging when their $29/bbl hedges ran out. We can only hope that the people at SW headquarters have an active Flight Info account so they realize that they won't be hedged at $51 forever.
 
Had it not been for fuel hedges, SWA would have reported a loss this past quarter.


Sounds a lot like:
Had it not been for making all that money, SWA would have reported a loss this past quarter.

That's hilarious.

General. West coast markets are down for USAir/Cactus. Their LAS operation is way down to the point they've completely pulled out of DEN.

Gup
 
What exactly does SWA have hedged? Have they been hedging oil at 90?

The resaon hedges are bought, is not the intention of making money off of them. The fact that the do make money is a bonus. They are bought to make a fixed number to predict opersting costs.

Lets say SWA hedges at $100 til 2014. Then Some form of hybrid vehicle come out and they are cheap and reliable and everything else and oil drops to $70 a barrel. SWA is not required to use the $100/brl fuel they can just buy off the current market at $70.

Now if oil goes to $120 they still have the right to purchase fuel at $100 and thus giving them fixed numbers to plan on. Operating at $70 just gave them and everyone else more profit.

Hedging will never go away. There is always someone out there willing to sell you insurance again anything. It is called the futures market in the WSJ.
 
The problem with hedges is that you have to have cash to do it. Or credit. It's too bad that the legacies that hid in BK have not exactly made themselves the best credit risk. So, I'm sure the legacies would love to hedge, but as we can see by their last quarter, the cash is a little hard to come by. As for credit...If I loaned you a dollar and you paid me back a quarter, I wouldn't be exactly jumping for joy to loan you another dollar.
 
Lets say SWA hedges at $100 til 2014. Then Some form of hybrid vehicle come out and they are cheap and reliable and everything else and oil drops to $70 a barrel. SWA is not required to use the $100/brl fuel they can just buy off the current market at $70.

Now if oil goes to $120 they still have the right to purchase fuel at $100 and thus giving them fixed numbers to plan on.

Let me summarize: you have no idea how futures contracts work.
 
Let me summarize: you have no idea how futures contracts work.

That is true. SW fuel hedges are heating oil contracts. Jet fuel is not a commodity which is exchanged on the futures market. There are some contracts with private hedge funds but SW seems to be exclusively Heating oil contracts which they exchange for jet fuel. They are basically making money in the futures market. If the price of oil started going down they could potentially still make money by betting on heating or crude oil futures to decline.
 
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