CAL vs NWA - Which To Choose?

[thor2j]

I have always thought that the only airline with worse bases then CAL was NWA. I would look very closely at your current job. I wouldn't want to be at the bottom right now. If you get stuck with a merger and assuming the seniority list is merged based on career expectations, CAL would most likely be better. CAL is in much better financial shape then NWA, and the A/C deliveries are far better at CAL. CAL was going to retire 25% of the captains in the next five years and around 50% of the entire company in 10. Now we all know that that has changed, but I still think many more retirements at CAL, especially with A fund still there.

But if you live in DTW,MSP, or MEM, probably a no brainer

Good luck!

 

[propdog]

I have always thought that the only airline with worse bases then CAL was NWA. I would look very closely at your current job. I wouldn't want to be at the bottom right now. If you get stuck with a merger and assuming the seniority list is merged based on career expectations, CAL would most likely be better. CAL is in much better financial shape then NWA, and the A/C deliveries are far better at CAL. CAL was going to retire 25% of the captains in the next five years and around 50% of the entire company in 10. Now we all know that that has changed, but I still think many more retirements at CAL, especially with A fund still there.

But if you live in DTW,MSP, or MEM, probably a no brainer

Good luck!

Career expectations are pretty high for a NWA new-hire. With massive retirements and expansion, career expectations for a NWA new-hire is as good as it was for a CAL new-hire in 2005. Currently new-hire to DC-9 CA is just around 1000 seniority numbers. Maybe 3 yrs to CA especially when you add the 787 arrivals.

Yes, CAL looks financially stronger. However, NWA had the highest profits of any legacy in the last quarter.

Not according to your seniority list. Before age 65 rule, CAL was going to retire 36% of it's pilot group in 10 years. NWA was going to retire 52% of it's pilot group in 10 years before the 65 rule. According to the latest retirement numbers, NWA keeps retiring at a much higher percentage of pilots than CAL even with age 65.

At the end of the day, as I said before, CAL is a great company. However, NWA is at the beginning of the hiring wave. Do you want to be behind 1400 new-hires at CAL in a company of 5000 pilots?

 

[densoo]

And for the record, the rift between NWA pilots and mgt is NOT fixed. I doubt it ever will be fixed, at least not while the current mgt is still employed.

And this is how it should be. If there isn't a rift, you're going to be hosed. Look for the rift. Go with the one with the bigger rift. No rift, no leverage. No leverage, no progress.

 

[Superpilot92]

Career expectations are pretty high for a NWA new-hire. With massive retirements and expansion, career expectations for a NWA new-hire is as good as it was for a CAL new-hire in 2005. Currently new-hire to DC-9 CA is just around 1000 seniority numbers. Maybe 3 yrs to CA especially when you add the 787 arrivals.

Yes, CAL looks financially stronger. However, NWA had the highest profits of any legacy in the last quarter.

Not according to your seniority list. Before age 65 rule, CAL was going to retire 36% of it's pilot group in 10 years. NWA was going to retire 52% of it's pilot group in 10 years before the 65 rule. According to the latest retirement numbers, NWA keeps retiring at a much higher percentage of pilots than CAL even with age 65.

At the end of the day, as I said before, CAL is a great company. However, NWA is at the beginning of the hiring wave. Do you want to be behind 1400 new-hires at CAL in a company of 5000 pilots?

Not to mention most of those newhires are in their 20's and early 30's=not going anywhere for a LONG time.

 

[ATRCA]

Career expectations are pretty high for a NWA new-hire. With massive retirements and expansion, career expectations for a NWA new-hire is as good as it was for a CAL new-hire in 2005. Currently new-hire to DC-9 CA is just around 1000 seniority numbers. Maybe 3 yrs to CA especially when you add the 787 arrivals.

Yes, CAL looks financially stronger. However, NWA had the highest profits of any legacy in the last quarter.

Not according to your seniority list. Before age 65 rule, CAL was going to retire 36% of it's pilot group in 10 years. NWA was going to retire 52% of it's pilot group in 10 years before the 65 rule. According to the latest retirement numbers, NWA keeps retiring at a much higher percentage of pilots than CAL even with age 65.

At the end of the day, as I said before, CAL is a great company. However, NWA is at the beginning of the hiring wave. Do you want to be behind 1400 new-hires at CAL in a company of 5000 pilots?

Yes...

Run these numbers:

CAL A/C deliveries 08 and 09: 61 new LN(73-800,900ER) and WB(787,777-300ER) A/C

NWA A/C deliveries 08: 0, 09: 18 but here is the real problem........
72 LARGE RJ'S to subsidiaries. Ouch!

 

[BigMeat]

gotta love those RJs. Any growth at CAL will be at mainline. NW has a stronger pilot group however which may play out in future contract negotiations.

 

[ATRCA]

gotta love those RJs. Any growth at CAL will be at mainline. NW has a stronger pilot group however which may play out in future contract negotiations.

The NWA pilot group has certainly proven themselves in the past. They used to have one of the best contracts in the business. The CAL pilot group on the other hand has a very poor history as you know.

The CAL pilot group has an opportunity to change this and is in negotiations as we speak. The NWA contract cannot be amended UNTIL 2011! In the end, there is every reason to believe that CAL will be a stronger airline going forward than NWA. NWA appears to have no interest in growing the Mainline domestically and 18 787's in the coming 5 years is pretty anemic Int'l growth in my opinion. While they are at the beginning of their hiring, they have very little growth plans and a VERY old fleet. With oil appearing to remain in the $90 - $100/barrel range its hard to believe they can sustain those 9's for many more years.

With the total loss of their scope protections this probably means tremendous growth for their regional partners and slow growth at mainline.

Even with age 65 CAL still boasts a SUB 5 YR UPGRADE! The dollar cost averaging of that earlier compensation means FAR more earning potential at CAL than NWA to say nothing of the horrible B fund match that NWA has at the present. The B fund match at CAL is not great, but it is nearly triple that of NWA.

 

[Superpilot92]

Yes...

Run these numbers:

CAL A/C deliveries 08 and 09: 61 new LN(73-800,900ER) and WB(787,777-300ER) A/C

NWA A/C deliveries 08: 0, 09: 18 but here is the real problem........
72 LARGE RJ'S to subsidiaries. Ouch!

There are only 18 more RJs that are unaccounted for as far as NWA feed goes. That's per the contract. CAL is getting LARGE TPs now in place of some 50 seaters OUCH!!:erm:

On top of that if CAL merges with UAL that just might be Uncle Larrys front door around Scope clause. I hope it doesnt happen, i really do because that would kill XJT but it could happen. You also forgot to mention the aircraft CAL is selling and that those 61 aircraft are not all growth planes but are replacements. Run those numbers.

 

[Superpilot92]

The NWA pilot group has certainly proven themselves in the past. They used to have one of the best contracts in the business. The CAL pilot group on the other hand has a very poor history as you know.

The CAL pilot group has an opportunity to change this and is in negotiations as we speak. The NWA contract cannot be amended UNTIL 2011! In the end, there is every reason to believe that CAL will be a stronger airline going forward than NWA. NWA appears to have no interest in growing the Mainline domestically and 18 787's in the coming 5 years is pretty anemic Int'l growth in my opinion. While they are at the beginning of their hiring, they have very little growth plans and a VERY old fleet. With oil appearing to remain in the $90 - $100/barrel range its hard to believe they can sustain those 9's for many more years.

With the total loss of their scope protections this probably means tremendous growth for their regional partners and slow growth at mainline.

Even with age 65 CAL still boasts a SUB 5 YR UPGRADE! The dollar cost averaging of that earlier compensation means FAR more earning potential at CAL than NWA to say nothing of the horrible B fund match that NWA has at the present. The B fund match at CAL is not great, but it is nearly triple that of NWA.

Feel free to explain the above. See my other post about only allowed 18 more aircraft TOTAL can be delivered to a feeder carrier. The only way additional aircraft on top of those unaccounted for 18 aircraft can be added is if NWA gets new aircraft and those have to be growth aircraft not DC9 replacements. I would love to see where you get your "Info" from.imp:


Bottom line both companies are good companies and no matter where you work its always a crap shoot. I decided on NWA because it currently allows alot more senioriity progression than CAL. Cals boat was boarding in 2005-6 IMHO. The key is get as much seniority as possible somewhere and hope thats enough to keep your job if the worst happens. Good luck to everyone.

 

[ATRCA]

There are only 18 more RJs that are unaccounted for as far as NWA feed goes. That's per the contract. CAL is getting LARGE TPs now in place of some 50 seaters OUCH!!:erm:

On top of that if CAL merges with UAL that just might be Uncle Larrys front door around Scope clause. I hope it doesnt happen, i really do because that would kill XJT but it could happen. You also forgot to mention the aircraft CAL is selling and that those 61 aircraft are not all growth planes but are replacements. Run those numbers.

The information regarding the CRJ 900's and E175's is publicly available. I'm not sure how you can compare the Q-400 PROPS Colgan will be flying to the 70+ MAINLINE REPLACEMENT JETS that will be flying under the NWA brand. If you think that those two are even remotely in the same neighborhood than you are simply ignoring the facts. With regard to wether or not CAL's new A/C are replacement -vs- growth, CAL is aggressively reducing their exposure to high fuel prices (Q-400 and NG 73's). Some are growth and some are replacements. Either way, CAL has FAR FEWER high cost airframes than NWA. As such their exposure to fuel costs is incrementally less.

I only provided numbers for the next 2 years. CAL is in fact taking additional A/C up thru 2012. Some are widebodies and some are large narrowbodies. NONE ARE RJ'S. All will be flown by mainline pilots and the scope clause at CAL remains firmly intact. I seriosly doubt that we will see Colgan announce that they will be taking delivery of 70+ Q-400's anytime soon.

You failed to address the disturbing lack of domestic capacity growth at NWA (mainline). Int'l growth is also paltry with only 18 787's on order. CAL has 25 FIRM 787's with options for more than 50 additional. CAL still boasts a sub 5 year upgrade while NWA upgrade is..........???? XJT had a better retirement plan than NWA. CAL has a better retirement plan than XJT.

Listen, here is the deal. Is CAL the best job in civilian aviation at the moment? No, of course not. FDX, UPS, SWA, and DAL are all better than CAL in my estimation. CAL is better than NWA. NWA is better than USA and they all have better futures than B6 and F9. Thats just the way it is (at this moment)

I wish you the best honestly. We are both XJT alums and I hope we all have great careers. Times will change again before either of us are retired and who knows what this will all look like in 20+ years. At the moment, I think CAL looks better than NWA for various reasons. In a couple of years one of us will be right and then a couple of years after than maybe the other one will be proven correct.

Cheers.

 

[Superpilot92]

The information regarding the CRJ 900's and E195's is publicly available. I'm not sure how you can compare the Q-400 PROPS Colgan will be flying to the 70+ MAINLINE REPLACEMENT JETS that will be flying under the NWA brand. If you think that those two are even remotely in the same neighborhood than you are simply ignoring the facts. With regard to wether or not CAL's new A/C are replacement -vs- growth, CAL is aggressively reducing their exposure to high fuel prices (Q-400 and NG 73's). Some are growth and some are replacements. Either way, CAL has FAR FEWER high cost airframes than NWA. As such their exposure to fuel costs is incrementally less.

I only provided numbers for the next 2 years. CAL is in fact taking additional A/C up thru 2012. Some are widebodies and some are large narrowbodies. NONE ARE RJ'S. All will be flown by mainline pilots and the scope clause at CAL remains firmly intact. I seriosly doubt that we will see Colgan announce that they will be taking delivery of 70+ Q-400's anytime soon.

You failed to address the disturbing lack of domestic capacity growth at NWA (mainline). Int'l growth is also paltry with only 18 787's on order. CAL has 25 FIRM 787's with options for more than 50 additional. CAL still boasts a sub 5 year upgrade while NWA upgrade is..........???? XJT had a better retirement plan than NWA. CAL has a better retirement plan than XJT.

Listen, here is the deal. Is CAL the best job in civilian aviation at the moment? No, of course not. FDX, UPS, SWA, and DAL are all better than CAL in my estimation. CAL is better than NWA. NWA is better than USA and they all have better futures than B6 and F9. Thats just the way it is (at this moment)

I wish you the best honestly. We are both XJT alums and I hope we all have great careers. Times will change again before either of us are retired and who knows what this will all look like in 20+ years. At the moment, I think CAL looks better than NWA for various reasons. In a couple of years one of us will be right and then a couple of years after than maybe the other one will be proven correct.

Cheers.

Ok well first,

there are NO E-195s anywhere flying for NWA. So that info is incorrect and Compass is wholly owned as well as Mesaba both of which offer flowback agreements to NWA pilots. I didnt compare or at least i wasnt trying to portray that the CRJs or E175s compare to the Q's. You keep talking about 70+ orders of regional jets at NWA? There are ONLY 18 Unaccounted for Jets that are available to the NWA feeders. No more can be ordered until NWA takes on growth planes.

Secondly, CAL has 25 orders of 787's with 50 options? right? Well NWA has 18 orders and 50 options as well which both companies will exercise i am sure. SO thats about the same.

CALs 5 year upgrade is because they have been hiring heavily for the past 3 years. NWA is just now starting the hiring and planning on hiring furiously. The projected upgrade for newbs is 3 years on the 9 for the same reasons the first newbs at CAL held CA at 2 years. So comparing the two upgrades right now doesnt work because its yet to be seen how the hiring frenzy will change things. Newbs on the 9 are only 1000 numbers from CA right out of training. So right now newbs at NWA should enjoy the progression just as the first newbs at CAL did.

Finally, Just like you I have my opinion on the situation and i feel that NWA is a better spot right now because its the front side of the hiring wave. Also NWA has the oldest pilot group of all the carriers=lots of retirements. From a fellow XJTer i wish everyone at CAL well wishes and hope that we all have that "perfect" career. Hopefully its not just 1 of us right in our choices and both of us end up right.

Cheers!!:beer:

 

[ATRCA]

Ok well first,

there are NO E-195s anywhere flying for NWA. So that info is incorrect and Compass is wholly owned as well as Mesaba both of which offer flowback agreements to NWA pilots. I didnt compare or at least i wasnt trying to portray that the CRJs or E175s compare to the Q's. You keep talking about 70+ orders of regional jets at NWA? There are ONLY 18 Unaccounted for Jets that are available to the NWA feeders. No more can be ordered until NWA takes on growth planes.

Secondly, CAL has 25 orders of 787's with 50 options? right? Well NWA has 18 orders and 50 options as well which both companies will exercise i am sure. SO thats about the same.

CALs 5 year upgrade is because they have been hiring heavily for the past 3 years. NWA is just now starting the hiring and planning on hiring furiously. The projected upgrade for newbs is 3 years on the 9 for the same reasons the first newbs at CAL held CA at 2 years. So comparing the two upgrades right now doesnt work because its yet to be seen how the hiring frenzy will change things. Newbs on the 9 are only 1000 numbers from CA right out of training. So right now newbs at NWA should enjoy the progression just as the first newbs at CAL did.

Finally, Just like you I have my opinion on the situation and i feel that NWA is a better spot right now because its the front side of the hiring wave. Also NWA has the oldest pilot group of all the carriers=lots of retirements. From a fellow XJTer i wish everyone at CAL well wishes and hope that we all have that "perfect" career. Hopefully its not just 1 of us right in our choices and both of us end up right.

Cheers!!:beer:

You are correct. I changed my post to read E-175 but you must have quoted it before I did so. You are also correct that CAL and NWA will be taking approx the same number of 78's. CAL will also be taking over 60 73NG's during the same time period while NWA will be shrinking their domestic fleet. It also appears that CAL will be getting a couple more 777's that were not originally planned.

Having been at XJT since 2000, I was there for the big RJ boom. The lack of growth at CAL during that period and the explosive growth at CoEx/XJT was the source of great consternation. I just think that NWA pilots will feel similar. It appears that for the moment CAL will be reducing its RJ system in favor of some turbo-props and more mainline aircraft. This can only be seen as a good thing for mainline pilots (and all pilots in the long run). NWA is going on the opposite direction at present.

CAL was ahead of its time when it placed an order for 274 E-145's and I hope that CAL will be ahead of its time reversing that trend.

 

[n6604f]

Who's Better or who's worse is the age old argument
Here is my .02

You will know when you retire if your choice was the right one. There is no way to predict the future in this business.

As for domestic growth....the last I checked DOMESTIC US Flying is not a real growth market...INTERNATIONAL currently is where all the growth is occuring.

 

[Tonedrvr]

I'm just glad we were able to have a reasonable conversation about this topic without some monkey chiming in and ruining it all!
I think it boils down to two things:

Which base is best for you? I wouldn't count on Memphis or Cleveland being around for that long.

Seniority. In the next 10 years both companies will have merged with somebody. Which one will get you the best seniority in time for that merger?

If your base of choice isn't relevant, I would go with NW for the fast seniority. All the talk of contracts and upgrade times probably won't matter by the time your upgrade comes around...

 

[propdog]

Quote by ATRCA: NWA appears to have no interest in growing the Mainline domestically and 18 787's in the coming 5 years is pretty anemic Int'l growth in my opinion:

18 787s + 50 options which they will exercise. With each 787 delivery at NWA, 2 more options go into firm status.

While they are at the beginning of their hiring, they have very little growth plans and a VERY old fleet. With oil appearing to remain in the $90 - $100/barrel range its hard to believe they can sustain those 9's for many more years:

Very little growth plans?? You got to be kidding me. Do a little research about their China growth plans. They plan to fly into several new cities in China which is soon becoming the biggest aviation market in the world---from both Japan and the US. Focus cities are developing nicely--BOS, SFO, LAX, PDX, SEA---all with multiple international services. Also, they plan to launch new service into Japan from some other US cities as well when they get more airframes.

Old airframes: NWA has the youngest widebody fleet in the country

DC-9: They are paid for

CAL may have been a great choice for you especially if you got hired at last year or so. However, being at the head end of the hiring wave at NWA has it's benefits too