DL 4th Qr Loss and parking RJ's

[rocket bob]

What does the margin forecast of flat to -2% do to the anticipated 3-6% raise the pilots were supposed to receive. Does this mean they get 1.5% instead?

 

[samballs]

Notice how the article said the "equivalent" of 10 mainline planes? In reality, the remaining domestic 764s and some domestic 763s will be transferred from domestic flying to INTL flying, and will go through modifications for the business elite seats. Didn't I say more 50 seaters were going to be parked?


Bye Bye--General Lee

Who hasn't said DL is gonna get rid of more 50's

 

[scarlet]

DL is making it look like they need to MERGE--here we go.

 

[~~~^~~~]

No they are not. Merger would be a whole lot more extreeme, but it does not make sense and the press is beginning to get that story out. Mergers do not make the cost of fuel go down and the legacy carriers are well positioned to adjust capacity if need be. Cheap MD88's can be parked, 757's can backfill 767's as they go further out internationally. (Can AirTran, or JetBlue, afford to park their jets with high lease payments?)

General is close, but not completely right. As I understand things, Delta has returned 13 mainline aircraft this year and recieved other aircraft. Overall the Delta fleet should grow by some 14 jets by the end of 2008. As soon as scope was expanded to allow 200 large RJ's we all knew the 35, 40 and 50 seaters would be swapped for 900's. Much of this was already in the works.

Delta has to be responsive to the owners of the Company. When the 4th quarter is coming in below projections due to a 50% increase in the cost of fuel an explanation has to be offered to the owners of the Company. Most of the answer has already been carefully considered, evaluated and acted on.

I think the price of fuel will raise the pressure on Delta to consider re-fleeting before the plastic wonder jet gets here 5 to 10 years from now. Cheap lease rates on older equipment might not be enough. This might lead to another round of scope wars with the MD88 being at risk.

 

[fatdumbandhappy]

I hope these mergers take place soon, we just need to get it over with and start moveing forward.... open skies is just around the corner.

 

[~~~^~~~]

Open Skies - what makes you think US Airlines will be the loser in Open Skies? Who do you think has higher costs? Luthansia, British Airways, AirFrance, or Delta?

With the value of the dollar - we yanks don't make nearly what the guys getting paid in Euros do.

Of course this helps the Connection pilots too. Hamburg to Huntsville type traffic.

 

[PositionandHold]

Yeah if anything, it just means we'll be getting more ATRs.

 

[PCL_128]

(Can AirTran, or JetBlue, afford to park their jets with high lease payments?)

Not hearing anything about parking airplanes yet, but we've already deferred deliveries for next year (down to only 10 new aircraft next year), and I've been hearing rumors of a major schedule reduction in the January-February time frame. One rumor has us eliminating an entire bank of flights out of the ATL hub for the winter slow season after the holidays.

 

[Citrus531]

Yep....instead of 2-3 "early nights" a week we(AirTran) will be eliminating all last bank flights for everyday in Jan and into late Feb in ATL....a ton of flights going bye-bye...just got the new a/c plot/routing the other day from MCO

We have the option in OPS to take undertime every day or come in earlier to finish earlier so we're not staying there until midnight when the last flight leaves @ 9 pm

 

[fatdumbandhappy]

Open Skies - what makes you think US Airlines will be the loser in Open Skies? Who do you think has higher costs? Luthansia, British Airways, AirFrance, or Delta?

With the value of the dollar - we yanks don't make nearly what the guys getting paid in Euros do.

Of course this helps the Connection pilots too. Hamburg to Huntsville type traffic.

I just think the U.S. airlines will get some stiff competition on the high profit int. routes that have help keep then afloat the last few years. We (USA) got a sweat deal with open skies, we can do inter-eroupe/etc. while foreign airlines can't do inter-state in the US.

 

[B-J-J Fighter]

I saw on the from page of the Wall St. Journal that Delta has very little fuel hedged in 08 and 09. If I remember correctly (was in last weeks paper) SWA, followed by US Airways had the highest percentage of fuel hedged at the lowest prices.

 

[General Lee]

Most of this has already been announced. CHQ is parking all 15 of its 135s, plus Comair is parking 14 CRJ 100s. In return SA is getting EMB 175s and OH is getting CRJ 900s.

Would be surprised if DL parked the ATRs given the price of fuel. If fuel stays high, look for 50 seaters to be parked and be replaced by a mix of 70-90 seaters and turboprops in the markets that wont support a 70 seat aircraft. Bombardier and Embraer have anticipated this and have already made plans to convert 37 and 50 seaters into business jets.

The 50 seat jets just don't make financial sense with fuel prices where they are. They were an artificial creation of mainline scope clauses, and now that these clauses permit larger aircraft more 50 seaters will be swapped for CRJ 700s, 900s, and EMB 170 family aircraft. Look for DL to place turboprops on shorter routes (already happening in CVG with BE 1900s). Wouldn't be surprised to see more turboprops next year, particularly if fuel stays high.....

Look for Delta to place turboprops on shorter routes? Those BigSky BE-1900D's are going to places we have never flown to before--like Owensboro, KY and Jackson, TN from CVG. The BOS BE1900 feed is essentially taking over Commutair and Colgan's old routes from BOS. They are not covering any previous regional or mainline flights, rather they are an experiment. The SH E170s are being traded ONE FOR ONE for E175s, and those older E170s are going to United. The CR9s and E175s take up a full gate, and therefore do not bring in as much revenue as a mainline plane that could take it's place in that limited asset (the gate). You are right, Pinnacle, Freedom, and ASA will be getting some CR9s in 08 for us, but not a ton of them. Look for more mainline planes to come online in mid to late 08--9 MD90s from China and 7 new 737-700s(coming in July at 2 per month). The AT7s will probably stick around, especially to fill niche cities like Panama City, FL and Hilton Head, SC. Are there any used large turboprops out there? The SAS Dash-8-400s---but very unlikely they would go to ASA--probably Lynx, Horizon, or Porter in Canada. I don't see any other large turboprops available unless they come off the production line, and there are plenty of orders out there. The 50 seat and 37 seat RJs just do not make money with high oil.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

I just think the U.S. airlines will get some stiff competition on the high profit int. routes that have help keep then afloat the last few years. We (USA) got a sweat deal with open skies, we can do inter-eroupe/etc. while foreign airlines can't do inter-state in the US.

Can you think of any intra-Europe routes we have right now? Europe, even in the UNION, is not really one country. We can't fly to London and then fly pax to Manchester (both in England) separately---which is what essentially would happen if British Air got to fly passengers between New York and Miami (without originating in England first). Not really the same thing. Just because there is an EU---doesn't mean it is one country. There are plenty of countries within it, and a couple, like Albania, are not a part of the EU.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[SPDBRD747400]

My question is:

What is the "current" cap for DL in regards to the 70 & 76 seat airplanes? Are we close to reaching the limit on 700's and 900's? If not what is the most DL Connection can operate total? I'm wondering just for the "possible" introduction of 900's to ASA and how many they might be able to operate for DL.

 

[WSurf]

Delta's Losing Money? G.L. whats going on over there?
Come on up to EWN and I will treat you and Plyt to a great weekend for free.