NOW will you lemmings get IT??

[kommutrdog]

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/ticker/article.aspx?Feed=AP&Date=20071107&ID=7781030&Symbol=UAUA

For those who occasionally venture into the more interesting 'non aviation' section of this board, the topic of our currency devaluation via the Federal Reserve has been a hot topic.

Lower rates = higher oil prices & foreign capital leaving our stock markets.

A lower Dollar WILL affect you. Stop pretending that all is well, Pollyanna-style. Get off your saddle and write your elected officials to tell them to knock it off with the rate cuts. Sure it will hurt. We will have a recession and some banks will fail, but you cannot have a sound economy with a Third World Currency.

(Ps I fully expect this thread to be moved by the moderator, because after all, since when does the talk of United possibly grounding 100 airplanes belong in the 'Majors' section?)

 

[UAL-GSO]

FEAR tactics, scare the peasants in to submission, etc... Take anything that comes out of a UAL exec's mouth with a very large grain of salt (and some antibiotics).

 

[Ex737Driver]

AHHHHHHHHHHH, the sky is falling!!!!!!! I sorry, my bad. It's just our ticket prices and our (insert your airine here) employees salaries, benefits, and retirements.

 

[kommutrdog]

FEAR tactics, scare the peasants in to submission, etc... Take anything that comes out of a UAL exec's mouth with a very large grain of salt (and some antibiotics).

I completely agree with that angle of your post, however, $98 oil and euro = $1.47+ is not good for the consumer.

Labor will give management the finger this time around, I believe, and the costs will be passed onto the pax...however, pax will not book as much. That trip to Grandma's in Fort Myers is gonna be awfully expensive come Xmas time if this keeps up.

Thanks to our visionaries at the Fed, the dollar is going into the toilet.

You cannot have a sound economy with a Third World currency.

 

[HalinTexas]

Get off your saddle and write your elected officials to tell them to knock it off with the rate cuts.

Elected officials don't set the fed rates. Thank God.

 

[JetFumes]

Correct me if I'm wrong. But haven't exports increased to the tune of about 16% as a result of the weaker dollar? I thought that this trims the trade deficit and can actually help our economy. Am I wrong?

 

[Hutchman]

Correct me if I'm wrong. But haven't exports increased to the tune of about 16% as a result of the weaker dollar? I thought that this trims the trade deficit and can actually help our economy. Am I wrong?

The dollar is off 40% and our exports are up 16%. Not a good balance. Guess what is the biggest export from the U.S. You got it, Boeing(or CAT). Back out Boeing and exports are not up. Boeing is on a tare right now due to the weak Dollar. Why do you think Airbus is in the crapper? The Euro is high. No one wants to buy overpriced aircraft. Unless you got a 40% raise over the past few years you now make less money. Last time I looked I took a 30% paycut plus the loss of the dollar equates to about a 50% paycut over the years. This is hardly anything to be happy about.

 

[PCL_128]

Unless you got a 40% raise over the past few years you now make less money.

I don't know why people keep saying this. It simply isn't true. The only thing that matters to the average American is the price they pay for goods and services in this country. So far, the weakened dollar hasn't caused an increase in prices for things purchased in America by the average consumer. This can be seen by looking at the CPI stats. The increase in the CPI for the past year has only been 2.8%, which is actually below average for the past century. Unless you're traveling internationally a lot, then the weakened dollar hasn't really affected the average American yet.

 

[Hutchman]

I don't know why people keep saying this. It simply isn't true. The only thing that matters to the average American is the price they pay for goods and services in this country. So far, the weakened dollar hasn't caused an increase in prices for things purchased in America by the average consumer. This can be seen by looking at the CPI stats. The increase in the CPI for the past year has only been 2.8%, which is actually below average for the past century. Unless you're traveling internationally a lot, then the weakened dollar hasn't really affected the average American yet.

There is one good I buy. It runs my car and is high due to the weakness of the dollar. I also eat food. Grain prices are way up thanks to the ethanol scam. I also travel abroad due to work. It effects me. How much was oil when we had a strong dollar? The answer is.................$10 a barrel. I know there are many other factors (China) for the increase, but if the dollar had any value oil would be less. Consumers are running out of credit and it should get very interesting within a year.

 

[PCL_128]

Yes, and the price of oil/gas and food is included in the CPI figure which has only gone up 2.8% in the past year, which again, is still under the average.

 

[CitationLover]

Ron Paul has a theory on this.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=8-W-ef7GmT4

 

[Wiggums]

PCL_128 trusts our government and Federal reserves policy implicitly. For every one else see this article about the CPI at shadowstats.com.

 

[Hutchman]

Yes, and the price of oil/gas and food is included in the CPI figure which has only gone up 2.8% in the past year, which again, is still under the average.

This is strait off the Gov. CPI website.

"...The index for energy, which advanced at annual rates of 22.9 and 32.9 percent in the
first two quarters, declined at a 14.8 percent rate in the third quarter of 2007. Thus far this year, energy costs
have risen at an 11.7 percent SAAR after increasing 2.9 percent in all of 2006. In the first nine months of 2007,
petroleum-based energy costs (energy commodities) advanced at a 20.6 percent rate and charges for energy
services (gas and electricity) increased at a 1.3 percent rate. The food index rose at a 5.7 percent SAAR in the
first nine months of 2007 after advancing 2.1 percent in all of 2006. Grocery store food prices increased at a
6.7 percent annual rate in the first nine months of 2007, reflecting acceleration over the last year in each of the
six major groups. These increases ranged from annual rates of 4.0 percent in the index for other food at home
to 17.7 percent in the index for dairy products."

 

[PCL_128]

This is strait off the Gov. CPI website.

"...The index for energy, which advanced at annual rates of 22.9 and 32.9 percent in the
first two quarters, declined at a 14.8 percent rate in the third quarter of 2007. Thus far this year, energy costs
have risen at an 11.7 percent SAAR after increasing 2.9 percent in all of 2006. In the first nine months of 2007,
petroleum-based energy costs (energy commodities) advanced at a 20.6 percent rate and charges for energy
services (gas and electricity) increased at a 1.3 percent rate. The food index rose at a 5.7 percent SAAR in the
first nine months of 2007 after advancing 2.1 percent in all of 2006. Grocery store food prices increased at a
6.7 percent annual rate in the first nine months of 2007, reflecting acceleration over the last year in each of the
six major groups. These increases ranged from annual rates of 4.0 percent in the index for other food at home
to 17.7 percent in the index for dairy products."

Exactly, and all of that is calculated into the total CPI number, which again, is only 2.8% for the trailing 12 months. Big difference from the 40% loss of buying power that some of you guys are claiming we've experienced.

 

[Hutchman]

Exactly, and all of that is calculated into the total CPI number, which again, is only 2.8% for the trailing 12 months. Big difference from the 40% loss of buying power that some of you guys are claiming we've experienced.

Ok, you win. Fuel is only up 33% and anything to do with a grain(whether eaten by or made from) is up 17%. You are right, things are fine. The Canadian dollar is at a 50 year high on the US Dollar. Hey, don't you see the 800lb gorilla in the room?

 

[flatspin7]

Well lets see... Our Oil man President launches the country into a war in a major oil producing region, creating big time nerves in the Middle East.

Oil skyrockets becuase of doubts in the supply chain, so what does he do? He starts sabre rattling against Iran another big time oil producer creating more doubt, oh now there is Chaos in Pakistan, that is going to help things.

Oh I forgot about our best friend Hugo Chavez who is really making life fun down in South America and he is only getting stronger.


During this whole foriegn policy mess the dollar has gotten much weaker making it harder for the US to profit in the global market place where the Euro will soon overtake the US Dollar as the currency of international business.

Oh and who gains from this.... The oil companies are making $$$ hand over foot. Most of these folks are the president's texas buddies.

OH and the rich are getting richer and the middle class is having ot work harder and harder to make ends meet... The only reason that the economy looks rosy is that the top 1% of earners are doing great.

Jobs are being shipper overseas, causing bigtime downward pressure on wages, when was the last time any one outside of upper management got a raise at your airline or other place of business.

I find it very difficult to support this Administration that has made so many mis-calculations, errors, and lies in the past 7 years.... The election can't come soon enough.

I am pretty sure that anyone on either side of the aisle can do the job better than what we have now.

 

[GogglesPisano]

Well lets see... Our Oil man President launches the country into a war in a major oil producing region, creating big time nerves in the Middle East.

Oil skyrockets becuase of doubts in the supply chain, so what does he do? He starts sabre rattling against Iran another big time oil producer creating more doubt, oh now there is Chaos in Pakistan, that is going to help things.

Oh I forgot about our best friend Hugo Chavez who is really making life fun down in South America and he is only getting stronger.


During this whole foriegn policy mess the dollar has gotten much weaker making it harder for the US to profit in the global market place where the Euro will soon overtake the US Dollar as the currency of international business.

Oh and who gains from this.... The oil companies are making $$$ hand over foot. Most of these folks are the president's texas buddies.

OH and the rich are getting richer and the middle class is having ot work harder and harder to make ends meet... The only reason that the economy looks rosy is that the top 1% of earners are doing great.

Jobs are being shipper overseas, causing bigtime downward pressure on wages, when was the last time any one outside of upper management got a raise at your airline or other place of business.

I find it very difficult to support this Administration that has made so many mis-calculations, errors, and lies in the past 7 years.... The election can't come soon enough.

I am pretty sure that anyone on either side of the aisle can do the job better than what we have now.

You must hate America.

 

[FlyFastLiveSlow]

I don't know why people keep saying this. It simply isn't true. The only thing that matters to the average American is the price they pay for goods and services in this country. So far, the weakened dollar hasn't caused an increase in prices for things purchased in America by the average consumer. This can be seen by looking at the CPI stats. The increase in the CPI for the past year has only been 2.8%, which is actually below average for the past century. Unless you're traveling internationally a lot, then the weakened dollar hasn't really affected the average American yet.

Do you honestly think the CPI% posted by the USGovt is any comfort to the people whose wallets are emptier each week than they were the week before, after going to the grocery store and buying gas??

Take the blinders off.....please!

 

[flatspin7]

I guess I do if you go by the whole "If you against the war you are un-patriotic" mantra I guess I am!

I feel that it is our duty as an American to make up our own minds and question our leadership is need be! This administration has made an art of calling those who disagree "un-patriotic" or giving comfort to our enemies!

There have been alot of people who have made a lot of money during the war in Iraq an dthe oil price explosion! Unfortunately the average Joe has not seen a dime of it!

Oh and just so everybody here knows...

The USA funded the Mujahadeen in Afghanistan when they were fighting the Russians! They became the Taliban and Osama Bin Laden fought along with then at the time.

The US and the West supported Iraq in their war with Iran. Iran ironically was also supported by the USA when the Shah was in Power who while not a Saint let probably one of the most progressive governments in the Islamic world. Many of our problems today were created by us 20 years ago!

Imagine the trouble we are creating for the next 20 years!

 

[Wiggums]

Look at last quarters GDP numbers. They showed an increase on 3.9%, but that is with a GDP deflater on only 0.8%. Using a more reasonable deflater, like the number used for the last quarter GDP increased only 2.1%, a much more reasonable number. The government is using the numbers to twist the system to it's advantage.

 

[FlyFastLiveSlow]

The government is using the numbers to twist the system to it's advantage.

Nooooooooooo.....not possible.....just ask PCL_128. He'll tell you.

 

[PCL_128]

Do you honestly think the CPI% posted by the USGovt is any comfort to the people whose wallets are emptier each week than they were the week before, after going to the grocery store and buying gas??

Take the blinders off.....please!

The CPI is an accurate measurement of how much the increase in prices is affecting the average American. If you guys refuse to accept this basic fact, then have at your "sky is falling" mentality. There's simply no help for you.

 

[FlyFastLiveSlow]

The CPI is an accurate measurement of how much the increase in prices is affecting the average American. If you guys refuse to accept this basic fact, then have at your "sky is falling" mentality. There's simply no help for you.

The CPI does not go out and talk to real people. Ask low income people whether the 2.8% CPI is affecting them. First, they (most) won't know what that means. Second, they are hurting.....much more than they were a year ago.

You know as well as I do that numbers can: 1) be easily manipulated, and 2) whenever you use the word "average" that the parameters can be anything. Is average considered "those households making 75k-125k"? If that's the case, then probably true, they haven't felt much impact. It's kinda like the validity of Consumer Reports. What does the little half filled red circle really mean? What is it relative to? Does it mean that a car breaks down 10% or 1% of the time??

EDIT: This is one of the larger problems with this country. We are so much happier to talk in numbers, than actually have a discourse about real people. Averages are so much easier and impersonal, and allow us not to be concerned with our consciences.

 

[PCL_128]

The CPI does not go out and talk to real people.

Yes, actually, it does. The statistical analysis of the CPI is based off of spending "diaries" that were kept by 30,000 families across the nation for several months. The calculation method is updated every few years by a new group of families. These diaries kept by "real people" are used to determine how much of the average American's budget is alloted to each category of product, and that info is used to calculate the impact of increases in prices of that type of item to each family.

Ask low income people whether the 2.8% CPI is affecting them. First, they (most) won't know what that means. Second, they are hurting.....much more than they were a year ago.

Got any empirical date to back up that claim? No? Didn't think so. Just because you claim it, doesn't make it so.

 

[FlyFastLiveSlow]

Yes, actually, it does. The statistical analysis of the CPI is based off of spending "diaries" that were kept by 30,000 families across the nation for several months. The calculation method is updated every few years by a new group of families. These diaries kept by "real people" are used to determine how much of the average American's budget is alloted to each category of product, and that info is used to calculate the impact of increases in prices of that type of item to each family. Got any empirical date to back up that claim? No? Didn't think so. Just because you claim it, doesn't make it so.

What is the definition of "average" for these families? Further, is 30,000 a large enough sample? What is specifically included in the diaries?

Empirical data? No. Do I talk to people who are struggling? Everyday. Do they have less left over at the end of the day than they did a year ago? Without question.

 

[Wiggums]

The way the data is collected is fine, it is what is done to the numbers after that is the problem. Varying the basket of goods and then hedonically adjusting makes the CPI a poor measure of inflation.

 

[PCL_128]

What is the definition of "average" for these families? Further, is 30,000 a large enough sample? What is specifically included in the diaries?

I can't remember all of the details, and frankly, I don't care. Every legitimate economist in the country trusts these figures. Only crackpots who run websites allege that some sort of malfeasance is taking place. If you want to know the details of how the figures are calculated, what "average" means, etc...., then go do some research on the government CPI website. All of the data is available there.

Empirical data? No. Do I talk to people who are struggling? Everyday. Do they have less left over at the end of the day than they did a year ago? Without question.

Yeah, roughly 3% less than a year ago. I don't trust anecdotal data. Show me some real researched data, and maybe I'll start to pay attention to the "sky is falling" mantra. Until then, it's all nothing but a bunch of useless noise.

 

[CitationLover]

What is the definition of "average" for these families? Further, is 30,000 a large enough sample? What is specifically included in the diaries?

Empirical data? No. Do I talk to people who are struggling? Everyday. Do they have less left over at the end of the day than they did a year ago? Without question.

30,000 sample size for the US works out to a 99% confidence level with +/- 0.74478% error.

http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm

 

[FlyFastLiveSlow]

I can't remember all of the details, and frankly, I don't care. Every legitimate economist in the country trusts these figures. Only crackpots who run websites allege that some sort of malfeasance is taking place. If you want to know the details of how the figures are calculated, what "average" means, etc...., then go do some research on the government CPI website. All of the data is available there.

Yeah, roughly 3% less than a year ago. I don't trust anecdotal data. Show me some real researched data, and maybe I'll start to pay attention to the "sky is falling" mantra. Until then, it's all nothing but a bunch of useless noise.

I didn't say the sky is falling (although it just might be). What I am suggesting here, is that things are worse than what this CPI data suggests. I'll do a little research on the site tomorrow. I'm too tired to learn anything tonight.

 

[CitationLover]

all i know is with 45% of my income going to TAXES (and it appears that will be rising if the presidential polls are right), CPI is the least of my worries.