Airtran to buy Air Midwest

[wembadios]

Heard from the CP this morning ...
Airtran will buy ZV in Fall 2007.

 

[gt1900]

Who's CP?? AAIs CP has said numerous times that he "thinks" it will happen, but not that it "will" happen..

 

[Alcatraz]

Are you sure someone isn't confusing "Air Midwest" and "Midwest Airlines?" They're two very different companies.

And, yes, I know Midwest Airlines is YX, not ZV... is ZV Air Midwest (Mesa subsidiary)?

 

[Kharma Police]

Sweet, the 1900 is back!! Maybe we will get to fly them? Most of the captains at AirTran have flown the Beech and they love telling stories about that great airplane!

 

[DonVerita]

Most of the captains at AirTran have flown the Beech...

Ummm...I don't think so. Try again.

 

[rtmcfi]

Ummm...I don't think so. Try again.

Airtran guys are higher class than that. They mostly flew Dash 8's!

 

[RIDETHELIGHTING]

Airtran guys are higher class than that. They mostly flew Dash 8's!

No you didnt!!!!!
The mighty beech spank all over the dash. Nothing worse then having to slow Vref 20 miles out because you had a dash in front of you.:beer:

I predict this thread is going to driff a bit.

 

[XGmaninGA]

Hey, let us not forget the beloved Swedish Love Machine.

 

[Lear70]

Of course it's going to drift... nobody wants this except management, anyway.

The silence regarding a contract is about as deafening as the silence regarding the acquisition over the last week or two.

I would have thought to see MORE press bombardments as we get closer to the BOD meeting, but evidently not...

 

[gt1900]

I want it to go through...

 

[blzr]

No you didnt!!!!!
The mighty beech spank all over the dash. Nothing worse then having to slow Vref 20 miles out because you had a dash in front of you.:beer:

I predict this thread is going to driff a bit.

They were going SOLW because they had something you didn't... Block or BETTER!!! They were getting paid. SUX that you weren't.

 

[RIDETHELIGHTING]

They were going SOLW because they had something you didn't... Block or BETTER!!! They were getting paid. SUX that you weren't.

It was supposed be a fun comment, but you just had to be a d!ck.

 

[Kharma Police]

We have block or better, at least 'till you get rescheduled on your trip.

 

[Lear70]

I want it to go through...

Why?

Adding 2-3 years to upgrade and taking on a company with financial problems doesn't exactly sound like a "great" idea...

 

[Kharma Police]

Why?

Adding 2-3 years to upgrade and taking on a company with financial problems doesn't exactly sound like a "great" idea...

Which company are you talking about? I hear the 1900 is a real money maker!! You could probably hold captain pretty quick, but you might take a pay cut.

 

[75M]

Does anybody really think we're buying Air Midwest?

And for the record, I hope the Midwest Airlines deal doesn't go.

 

[Kharma Police]

Does anybody really think we're buying Air Midwest?

And for the record, I hope the Midwest Airlines deal doesn't go.

I was joking, and I too hope that the Midwest (MEH) deal does not go through.

 

[gt1900]

Lear
First off, You have no idea if its going to add 2-3 years to upgrade or not.. Your only speculating. According to the CP, it could very well lower upgrade times because of the huge expansion that would take place in MKE.. Plus, not sure if you know this, but AAI is in talks with Boeing for more 737's.. I actually believe buying midex will lower upgrade times.. Expansion is slowing in ATL, MKE would increase expansion overnight, we would have to hire a ton of pilots to fulfill the extra 100 flights a day out of MKE. Plus, we would be able to train a lot more pilots since we would basically have all of Alteon if AAI buys midex.... BUT, why do I want AAI to buy midex? Simple, AAI would own that city, we would be able to defend MKE and have little competition. It would be very hard for anyone to move in unless they wanted to build more gates. Almost every major airline has one city that they own, MKE would be AAI's.. Plus, its a great city to conect west coast cities to the NE. Add to that a much bigger presence in Kansas City and the gates midex has at DCA and LGA and I think its not only a good business decision, but also would be good for the pilots.. Besides, the bigger AAI gets the tougher its going to be for someone to buy AAI.. I say bring on MKE, and then bring on F9........ And in case you haven't noticed, Parker still wants to buy someone.. As much as he would love to screw DAL, wouldn't it be convenient to buy AAI to screw DAL? I wouldn't put it past that idiot...

 

[Lear70]

Lear
First off, You have no idea if its going to add 2-3 years to upgrade or not.. Your only speculating. According to the CP, it could very well lower upgrade times because of the huge expansion that would take place in MKE.. Plus, not sure if you know this, but AAI is in talks with Boeing for more 737's.. I actually believe buying midex will lower upgrade times.. Expansion is slowing in ATL, MKE would increase expansion overnight, we would have to hire a ton of pilots to fulfill the extra 100 flights a day out of MKE.

First, put down the kool-aid and step back...

Second, why would it increase upgrade times if the seniority integration goes "relative" and puts 75% of their seniority list above the bottom 1/4 of the AAI list? Answer: it wouldn't, it would increase upgrade times unless we were SOMEHOW able to speed up our deliveries (which we can't, all delivery slots are spoken for at Boeing).

BUT, why do I want AAI to buy midex? Simple, AAI would own that city, we would be able to defend MKE and have little competition. It would be very hard for anyone to move in unless they wanted to build more gates. Almost every major airline has one city that they own, MKE would be AAI's.. Plus, its a great city to conect west coast cities to the NE. Add to that a much bigger presence in Kansas City and the gates midex has at DCA and LGA and I think its not only a good business decision, but also would be good for the pilots..

Possibly. But you also have an operation you have to go in and fix. They have profitability problems, and that's not solved overnight.

Besides, the bigger AAI gets the tougher its going to be for someone to buy AAI.. I say bring on MKE, and then bring on F9........ And in case you haven't noticed, Parker still wants to buy someone.. As much as he would love to screw DAL, wouldn't it be convenient to buy AAI to screw DAL? I wouldn't put it past that idiot...

Ummm... haven't been reading the news lately, have we?

Parker's not going to buy anyone. Neither is UAir. They have their hands full and the last time they tried that, a couple Senators and Congressmen got involved and started talking about reversing the PBGC takeover of the pension plan.

Parker's cooling his heels for a while.

 

[FlyWolf]

And for the record, I hope the Midwest Airlines deal doesn't go.

75M, I know Lear's point of view on the issue, but was wondering why do you think its a bad deal for AAI?

 

[TV9Driver]

because 75M wants IND to be the next hub of AAI - it's where he commutes from....that greedy bastard!!!

 

[twepilot]

Bro' not wanting an M&A to go through because it MAY cause a little more time to upgrade is indeed selfish. Think big picture. I'm hoping to have gone through a crazy career such as ours only interviewing at 2 airlines. Only another 18 or 23 years left!

RV

 

[gt1900]

Ummm Lear.. I have been reading the news, but it seems like maybe you haven't been.. Here ya go.

US Airways is Still committed to Seeking Merger Partner
US Airways is still committed to seeking merger partner

David Woodfill, Tribune

US Airways chairman and CEO Doug Parker said the failed merger attempt between US Airways and Delta Air Lines has not dampened the company’s resolve to eventually consider another merger.

Parker’s comments came on Thursday after the 16th annual International Aviation Symposium at the Arizona Biltmore Resort & Spa in Phoenix.

Parker and other industry leaders discussed issues facing airlines, including executive compensation and the hypercyclical nature of the industry.

Parker told the audience of industry players the problem of overcapacity — too many seats and not enough passengers — could have been alleviated had the merger been successful. Parker said the two companies together would have stripped the industry of about four percent of overcapacity.



As far as going "relative", well, your only speculating on that as well. This merger should help the guys at AAI. I'm not trying to screw the midex guys, but all the AAI guys should move up a little in seniority. The last few Midex guys should be at the bottom of the AAI list..

As far as fixing Midex's oporation, if AAI's buys midex, the operation is fixed, just like that. AAI's business plan seems to work. So yes, that is fixed overnight...

And as far as getting 737's... Who said anything about it only being 737's?? There's more 717's in the desert ya know.. If AAI needs planes fast, they can get 717's...

And don't foregett that Midex only fly's their airplanes about 8 hrs a day from what I understand.. If AAI buys midex hat number will go up to 11 hrs immediately.. Thats 3 hours a day extra for all the midex airlplanes.. Thats a fair amount of hiring just to cover the extra flying with no extra planes..

 

[Lear70]

Ummm Lear.. I have been reading the news, but it seems like maybe you haven't been.. Here ya go.

I think you missed the part where what Parker "wants" versus what he's going to "get" are two different things.

As far as going "relative", well, your only speculating on that as well. This merger should help the guys at AAI. I'm not trying to screw the midex guys, but all the AAI guys should move up a little in seniority. The last few Midex guys should be at the bottom of the AAI list..

OK, obviously you weren't a math or statistics major.

Unless ALL their F/O's go on the bottom of the list, IF there are no fences, then AAI F/O's WILL see a slow-down in upgrade.

If you can't understand that math, maybe you shouldn't be operating heavy equipment... or leave the house.

Incidentally, I've spoken directly to the chair of the M&A committee... have you? Hint: relative seniority is the word of the day.

As far as fixing Midex's oporation, if AAI's buys midex, the operation is fixed, just like that. AAI's business plan seems to work. So yes, that is fixed overnight...

Boy. I don't know where to start with this one. How about: "God, am I glad you're not running this company."

You don't fix an operation overnight. Their aircraft are configured differently, staffed differently, and operated differently. We can't just throw our pricing and seat configuration into the Midwest operation overnight. It's going to take many months of reconfiguring, changing reservations and price structure, all while maintaining the expectations of the core Midwest customers without p*ssing too many people off.

You don't do that overnight and, until we do, those aircraft will continue to operate right on the margin.

The fact that you don't understand this simply underscores my belief that you are only buying into this because you have been drinking the kool aid, not because you actually understand the dynamics involved.

And as far as getting 737's... Who said anything about it only being 737's?? There's more 717's in the desert ya know.. If AAI needs planes fast, they can get 717's...

Again, IF the acquisition goes through, don't expect to see an increase in expansion plans for quite some time. They will have their hands full simply integrating the two companies, probably for well over a year.

You need to do a little research on merger and acquisition history in the industry.

And don't foregett that Midex only fly's their airplanes about 8 hrs a day from what I understand.. If AAI buys midex hat number will go up to 11 hrs immediately.. Thats 3 hours a day extra for all the midex airlplanes.. Thats a fair amount of hiring just to cover the extra flying with no extra planes..

Again, you speak of that which you know not of. You can't force our operations on their airline overnight.

This will occur slowly, and in stages, over a decent length of time. Granted, it will take an additional 10-15% in staffing to cover the additional flying those aircraft will EVENTUALLY operate, but they're going to have a good 6 months to a year to do so, not to mention that as they retire their oddball aircraft, you end up with some extra crews anyway.

TWEPilot, this is airline #4, after 2 furloughs and one carrier shutdown. I'm not out to screw my brother, but I AM in this career for ME, and so is everyone else here. I don't see too many people volunteering to fly for a major airline for free.

So yes, if I'm going to get hosed by a merger (or have good reason to believe I will), you'll just have to forgive me for not wanting it to happen.

The only way I wouldn't mind is if our new Agreement matched SWA F/O pay while maintaining our current work rules. However, having talked to some of the guys at the top of the union food chain, I'm told that's not even remotely close to being in the cards.

If they can't pay me well enough to not mind being an F/O, I don't want my upgrade hindered, especially since we can survive just fine (and have proven it) without Midwest.

Why would I want to shoot myself in the foot like that?

 

[gt1900]

Your right Lear.. I wasn't a math major.. I have degrees in Economics and Aviation Managment.. So, I have NO idea what I'm talking about at all... Whats your degree (s) in?? It would take maybe 6 months to change Midex's operation to AAI's operation.. Maybe, 6 months.. But then again, I don't care abut the immediate future, I care how the merger will affect me for the rest of my carreer.... And I'm not sure if you realize this, but AAI's upgrade is sliding up to 3+ years, and its going to get worse if AAI doesn't buy Midex.. Buying Midex will open up a huge expansion oportunity in MKE overnight.. Heres something for you to read.......

AirTran has laid out specific plans for increasing service in Milwaukee should its offer succeed. Among other things, the company plans to have 215 daily departures from Milwaukee by 2009, which it says is a 34% increase from Midwest's existing schedule.

Notice that this is by 2009? We are already well into 2007.. So, that would be an increase of 34% in a year and a half. It sounds like the folks at AAI belive they can do what you say they can't.. Plus AAI plans to expand their existing flying by about 15% (don't quote me exactly, I don't have time to look up the exact number). So, If AAI doesn't buy Midex, they only expand at around 15%, yet if they do buy midex they plan on adding nearly 34% more flights a day out of MKE alone, and that doesn't include Kansas City expansion.. You know what all that is going to lead to?? AAI will be doing a ton of hiring and running upgrade classes as fast as possible (something that isn't being done right now)........ AAI doesn't have anywhere close to the number of pilots to staff all the expansion that would happen in MKE. And the additional pilots that come from Midex will barely make a dent... I hope to hell we by Midex, most of their pilots are old and only have 10 or maybe 15 years to go, that means that movement won't stagnate at AAI like its going to when that time comes around, don't forgett that either.. Hell, if we buy Midex, in 10-15 years most the midex guys who will be senior to me will be gone.. That sounds pretty good to me..

 

[Lear70]

Your right Lear.. I wasn't a math major.. I have degrees in Economics and Aviation Managment..

Then you should know better.

My degrees were in Aviation Management and Aviation: Pro Pilot.

It would take maybe 6 months to change Midex's operation to AAI's operation.. Maybe, 6 months..

Whooaaaa,,, that's not what you said.

You said the change to profitability would be OVERNIGHT!

So which is it?

But then again, I don't care abut the immediate future, I care how the merger will affect me for the rest of my carreer....

I care about both.

I have no interest to sit making $60k-70k a year as an F/O for 5 more years instead of 2-3. That's a loss to me of more than $100k over the next 5 years.

You should understand that with your Economics degree.

And I'm not sure if you realize this, but AAI's upgrade is sliding up to 3+ years, and its going to get worse if AAI doesn't buy Midex.. Buying Midex will open up a huge expansion oportunity in MKE overnight..

There you go again with that "overnight" business. You already admitted it's going to take longer than that. Pick one and stick to it.

Secondly, I'm well aware of upgrade times. Do a search, I posted a long explanation last week of exactly how and why upgrade times are increasing and how long someone hired today could expect to take to upgrade.

It's only going to get worse if we defer more deliveries.

Or if we buy Midwest. You're not getting the whole "seniority integration" thing, are you? Would you REALLY like me to break it down for you?

Heres something for you to read.......

AirTran has laid out specific plans for increasing service in Milwaukee should its offer succeed. Among other things, the company plans to have 215 daily departures from Milwaukee by 2009, which it says is a 34% increase from Midwest's existing schedule.

Hmmm, yes, 2009. 18 months from now.

So... 6 months to a year to get Midwest ramped up to our operations which grows their fleet utilization by about 10-15%. Then another 6 months or so for them to expand by adding more aircraft as they come online for the remaining 15-20%.

Sounds about right. They also neglect to mention what they'll be doing to Atlanta in the meantime (meaning not very much).

So we stagnate in ATL and grow MKE, all while taking the same aircraft deliveries we were already slated for, growing at the same rate we were already planned to expand, but with another 200 pilots or so in the seniority mix as F/O's.

You catching on now?

It sounds like the folks at AAI belive they can do what you say they can't..

No, you're just finally admitting it's going to take a year+ for any real growth to occur.

I already said that.

Plus AAI plans to expand their existing flying by about 15% (don't quote me exactly, I don't have time to look up the exact number). So, If AAI doesn't buy Midex, they only expand at around 15%, yet if they do buy midex they plan on adding nearly 34% more flights a day out of MKE alone, and that doesn't include Kansas City expansion..

That's 15% EACH YEAR,,, or did you miss that part of our existing aircraft delivery schedule for the next several years?

You know what all that is going to lead to?? AAI will be doing a ton of hiring and running upgrade classes as fast as possible (something that isn't being done right now)........ AAI doesn't have anywhere close to the number of pilots to staff all the expansion that would happen in MKE. And the additional pilots that come from Midex will barely make a dent... I hope to hell we by Midex, most of their pilots are old and only have 10 or maybe 15 years to go, that means that movement won't stagnate at AAI like its going to when that time comes around, don't forgett that either.. Hell, if we buy Midex, in 10-15 years most the midex guys who will be senior to me will be gone.. That sounds pretty good to me..

Keep drinking the kool-aid.

Upgrade classes as fast as possible... dream on.

The math doesn't lie. Take a closer look at how many 717's they have, how many pilots they have, then use OUR staffing ratio to figure out how many people they'll need to staff them for OUR block hour ratio per 717.

You're going to find out this long summer of stagnating upgrades will continue with the Midwest acquisition until all their MD pilots are integrated as our 737 deliveries continue to come online. If the deal goes through without a fence in place, you'll be looking at 5+ years to upgrade by the end of next summer.

 

[FlyWolf]

anywhere close to the number of pilots to staff all the expansion that would happen in MKE. And the additional pilots that come from Midex will barely make a dent... I hope to hell we by Midex, most of their pilots are old and only have 10 or maybe 15 years to go, that means that movement won't stagnate at AAI like its going to when that time comes around, don't forgett that either.. Hell, if we buy Midex, in 10-15 years most the midex guys who will be senior to me will be gone.. That sounds pretty good to me..

Shame on you for calling us old , we are just very well seasoned .

But you'r right we have a big % above age 50, we even have some F/O's retiring soon as f/o's.

On another note, today one of our MAIN shareholders (Heartland) announced the dumping of 50% of their Midwest shares, not good news for Midwest, Heartland is one of the local long time stock holders of Midwest.

here is the article:
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Posted on May 10, 2007 | Permalink

Midwest defense hits bumpy skies
Midwest Air Group Inc.’s effort to stave off a hostile $389 million takeover offer from rival AirTran Holdings Inc. was dealt a potential blow Thursday when hometown (and believed to be sympathetic) shareholder Heartland Advisors Inc. disclosed it has halved its stake in the Oak Creek, Wis.-based airline.

Heartland in a filing Thursday with the Securities and Exchange Commission said it now owns 592,100 shares of Midwest, or 2.4% of the float, down from 1.2 million, or 4.99%, at year’s end.

The investor gave no reason for the sale, but it could not come at a worse time for Midwest. AirTran has nominated a slate of directors to be considered at Midwest’s June 14 annual meeting, and it has asked shareholders to tender their shares in favor of a deal by May 16 in order to force management into talks. Midwest’s reluctance to engage in talks has enraged some shareholders including Octavian Advisors LP, owner of 5.97% of Midwest shares.

Though Heartland has offered no public comment on the proposed deal, Midwest advocates have insisted to reporters that the airline’s local owners would beat back any effort to force it into a deal. If nothing else, a source supporting AirTran’s effort said Thursday, the sale means shares once held by a long-term backer of Midwest are now most likely in the hands of new holders more interested in turning a quick profit — meaning Midwest’s challenge just grew that much more difficult. —Lou Whiteman

See Heartland's SEC filing
See story from thedeal.com
See related story from thedeal.com

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Will see what will happen on the 16th, it will be very intersting to see the amount of shares tenderd.

 

[c9skytrain]

In the long run I think it will be best for everybody. Short term it will impact my upgrade, but I think expansion will be faster after the initial six-eight months.

 

[TV9Driver]

first of all..... Lear and gt1900 have way too much time on their hands if they can keep posting 30 page dissertations on this message board!!

secondly... c9skytrain.... where did you find that picture of my first jet landing?!?!? I thought I destroyed all the evidence!

 

[Lear70]

first of all..... Lear and gt1900 have way too much time on their hands if they can keep posting 30 page dissertations on this message board!

Yeah... I know. That's what happens on 14 hour overnights in ICT.