Recession? Industry Predictions Anyone?

[LeonPhelps]

I figured I'd get it started. Greenspan calls for recession by end of the year, stock market dips...what gives? Curious to know what the industry predictions are, and if our friends claiming "pilot shortage" still hold true to this? Let it rip fellas!!

 

[800Dog]

I figured I'd get it started. Greenspan calls for recession by end of the year, stock market dips...what gives? Curious to know what the industry predictions are, and if our friends claiming "pilot shortage" still hold true to this? Let it rip fellas!!

Many Wallstreet folks disagree with Greenspan. Corporate profits are strong, unemployment is low and the market is still undervalued according to some. Housing and consumer spending are still unknowns. Don't lose any sleep over it.

 

[JetFumes]

If the economy slows down, then the FED will likely lower rates. That would help the housing sector. Plus if a slow down in China and the US occurred, I'm guessing the forecast demand for oil will decrease, hopefully this would lower the price of oil. This probably wouldn't matter too much, because if demand for air travel started to taper off, the ticket prices would move south to stimulate demand, which means that air carriers with the lowest cost (casm) would be the best able to weather the storm. Hopefully demand will stay fairly even and the airlines might actually benefit from a mild slowdown. I've heard that student pilot starts since 911 have dropped by 50% , so thats got to have some effect in the future.

 

[ReverseSensing]

I figured I'd get it started. Greenspan calls for recession by end of the year, stock market dips...what gives? Curious to know what the industry predictions are, and if our friends claiming "pilot shortage" still hold true to this? Let it rip fellas!!

What happened to your listhp? Doesth it go away when drink enough Courvoisier?

 

[LeonPhelps]

What happened to your listhp? Doesth it go away when drink enough Courvoisier?

Yeah, ummmm...sthomtimesth I justht feel like typing without thinking how to annucthiate the listhp. Pleasthe forgive me...I think that in fact I did not have enough courvossier to sthtart that thread. In the future, I will ensthure that I am at least half a bottle in before I sthtart a thread.

 

[AA717driver]

I'm making the bold prediction that we WILL have a recession in the future. Ta-dah! TC

P.S.--We've got a housing bubble. We've got a personal debt crisis. The Chinese own too much of our Govt. debt. The A-rabs own too much oil. We need to develop new sources of energy but the oil companies won't let it happen just yet. Hey, Leon, path the bottoe!

 

[PlaneDrvr]

I'm making the bold prediction that we WILL have a recession in the future. Ta-dah! TC

P.S.--We've got a housing bubble. We've got a personal debt crisis. The Chinese own too much of our Govt. debt. The A-rabs own too much oil. We need to develop new sources of energy but the oil companies won't let it happen just yet. Hey, Leon, path the bottoe!

Well, You definitely have to listen to the "Economists" of course, afterall, they have accurately "predicted 14 out of the last 8 recessions."

"Economists were created just to make Psychics look good"

DA

 

[800Dog]

I'm making the bold prediction that we WILL have a recession in the future. Ta-dah! TC

P.S.--We've got a housing bubble. We've got a personal debt crisis. The Chinese own too much of our Govt. debt. The A-rabs own too much oil. We need to develop new sources of energy but the oil companies won't let it happen just yet. Hey, Leon, path the bottoe!

Housing bubble is in select locations, not nationwide. With you on the personal debt and the Chinese.

 

[Groucho]

There are those who say that Greenspan's comments were a code for the new Fed Chairman to lower rates.

The rate change wouldn't have to be large, just a signal, to send to the markets ahead of a national election to keep the economy humming along. Nothing kicks the market like a rate reduction.

 

[80for80]

Everything is going to be OK. CAL and DAL are both hiring.

 

[m80drvr]

The Chinese have NO vested interest in pushing us into recession. While it is alarming that they do own such a large portion of their debt, we ,america, are their biggest trading partner. Don't believe me, go to any walmart and look at where that majority of their "low priced" merchandise is made. A recession here will decrease the demand for their products therefore push them into a recession. This would hurt them evem more because their stock market is over inflated due to speculative investing by their rising "middle Class".

That being said I think we will will get ourselves into an economic slowdown all by ourselves, with no help from the chinese.

But what do I know, I chose to be a pilot instead of investing in a high paying, stable career.

 

[Secret Squirrel]

There are those who say that Greenspan's comments were a code for the new Fed Chairman to lower rates.

Why not send him an e-mail. They were friends and coworkers for many years. You make it sound like they are cold war conspirators.

 

[ReverseSensing]

Yeah, ummmm...sthomtimesth I justht feel like typing without thinking how to annucthiate the listhp. Pleasthe forgive me...I think that in fact I did not have enough courvossier to sthtart that thread. In the future, I will ensthure that I am at least half a bottle in before I sthtart a thread.

I won't make any industry predictions, but I predict that keeping up the listhp will keep your post count down to a respectable number (unlike mine:0).

 

[Occam's Razor]

Well, You definitely have to listen to the "Economists" of course, afterall, they have accurately "predicted 14 out of the last 8 recessions."

"Economists were created just to make Psychics look good"

My fave: "Economists are experts at predicting the past"

 

[EA6BDriver]

My fave: "Economists are experts at predicting the past"

They don't call Economics "The Dismal Science" for nothing.

I tend to believe them (economists, that is), given that most Americans are in debt up to their eyeballs, their pensions have been gutted, they are approaching "Pensioneer" age in droves, and the Government programs there to supposedly bail them out are severely underfunded (not that I'm an advocate of Government bail-outs). It's got to give at some point.

To further cheer everyone up:

http://www.ihatedebt.com/ALookatDebt/CurrentStateofDebt.php

What will that mean for the airlines and hiring? No telling. But a general economic meltdown has gotta fall in the "Not Good" column no matter what the industry.

But then again I'm a "Glass is half empty" kind of guy.