Who thinks the DL/LCC merger goes through?

[kngarthur]

I'm pretty convinced this is a done deal? Also this is the perfect opportunity for Delta employees to throw their management out on their a$$es?

 

[sonny320]

50/50. Who knows, UAL could out bid LCC or they could possibly break up DAL to 2-3 different airlines. Time will tell.

 

[General Lee]

Nah. There a few really large obstacles, even if UAL tries to join the party. Not only is the creditor committee friendly to DL, but Jim Oberstar, the NEW chairman of the Transportation Sub Committee, is against mergers if they overlap routes and affect consumers in any way. The DOJ would also look very closely at anything that was anti-competitive. And, if you think Southwest or Jetblue would come in and serve the smaller communities that would lose service, like Florence, SC or Hunington, WV, then you are lying to yourself. I would say there is a 5% chance the US/DL merger would go through, and it would be hostile to say the least, with a result of 900 or more airplanes right away, with many disgruntled employees to boot. Sure, money talks, so what happened with all that money for the UAL/US merger? It wasn't enough to persuade Congress or other skeptical people. This one has even more skeptics, except Parker.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Zipperhead]

The General has spoken, so it will not happen.....thread closed

 

[Caveman]

Could go either way. I think the biggest obstacle will be elected officials trying to make sure their favorite city pairs aren't affected. They'll use the DOJ to try and derail the merger using anti-trust arguments. If it were given an honest look I think most of the overlap concerns could be addressed.

Whether or not it's good for either DAL or LCC is another matter. I'm not smart enough to sort out the financials so I really don't have an opinion either way. I think there may be some modest initial benefit for JB, SWA, and AirTran but long term they would have to deal with a bigger and leaner legacy once the dust settled.

 

[General Lee]

The General has spoken, so it will not happen.....thread closed

IF you care to debate me on the issues, try. Sounds like you can't.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Zipperhead]

General,

I would debate you, however, it will turn into a bash fest as it always does and it's not worth it. Not worth the time and energy to continue down the same road. It tends to get one sided as to your airline being superior to all others.

 

[GOTAFLY]

Generals reply every time goes somthing like this, what is there to debate, I think the General is stuck on repeat! Gets old if you ask me all he does is qoute news articles!

Bye Bye Gotafly

Nah. There a few really large obstacles, even if UAL tries to join the party. Not only is the creditor committee friendly to DL, but Jim Oberstar, the NEW chairman of the Transportation Sub Committee, is against mergers if they overlap routes and affect consumers in any way. The DOJ would also look very closely at anything that was anti-competitive. And, if you think Southwest or Jetblue would come in and serve the smaller communities that would lose service, like Florence, SC or Hunington, WV, then you are lying to yourself. I would say there is a 5% chance the US/DL merger would go through, and it would be hostile to say the least, with a result of 900 or more airplanes right away, with many disgruntled employees to boot. Sure, money talks, so what happened with all that money for the UAL/US merger? It wasn't enough to persuade Congress or other skeptical people. This one has even more skeptics, except Parker.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[737 Pylt]

I'm pretty convinced this is a done deal? Also this is the perfect opportunity for Delta employees to throw their management out on their a$$es?

King:
If you're pretty convinced, can you convince me what the NY lottery #'s are tonight. I'd like to leave this mess of aviation.

737

 

[General Lee]

Generals reply every time goes somthing like this, what is there to debate, I think the General is stuck on repeat! Gets old if you ask me all he does is qoute news articles!

Bye Bye Gotafly

I often have to repeat it for you guys since you can't even comprehend the basics. I feel like I am instructing a new private pilot again.... Flare!!!

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Zipperhead]

I often have to repeat it for you guys since you can't even comprehend the basics. I feel like I am instructing a new private pilot again.... Flare!!!

Bye Bye--General Lee

God-complex

 

[General Lee]

God-complex

Thank Gawd I am here to explain this stuff to you. You are welcome.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[vetrider]

I don't think it will happen, its to convoluted and doesn't make any sense on so many different levels.

Kngarthur, if you read a few other threads on this you will see that the General has spelled out just how this deal doesn't make any sense on so many levels. I don't see how this raw deal could possibly fly.

 

[WSurf]

Boeing in the Catbird Seat

Company is chairman of the creditors' committee for bankrupt Delta Air Lines

Analyst: For Boeing, "It's Monty Hall and 'Let's Make a Deal,” The new US Airways could cancel the A350 order, given the unanticipated delay in filling it, and commit to buying new Boeing aircraft in an effort to gain support for a Delta takeover.

Analyst: "I think Boeing's inclination will be to favor whoever can give them the highest number of airplane orders going forward. I think it will be a cold, hard business decision."


http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/new...24991.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

 

[General Lee]

Boeing in the Catbird Seat

Company is chairman of the creditors' committee for bankrupt Delta Air Lines

Analyst: For Boeing, "It's Monty Hall and 'Let's Make a Deal,” The new US Airways could cancel the A350 order, given the unanticipated delay in filling it, and commit to buying new Boeing aircraft in an effort to gain support for a Delta takeover.

Analyst: "I think Boeing's inclination will be to favor whoever can give them the highest number of airplane orders going forward. I think it will be a cold, hard business decision."


http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/new...24991.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

This was posted yesterday. Means nothing really. Overall USAir is an Airbus client, and they still haven't cancelled their recent A321 or A320 orders. Boeing likely has a large order from Delta, upon exit of BK. And, the A350 order for USAir was done to get USAir and AWA money for a merger. Why would they cancel that order, when it helped them get USAir out of BK and help for the merge. Airbus gave them $200 million to help emerge from BK. So, they would cancel that order? Riiiiiiiight. But, the analyst obviously thought of that....


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Sig]

Disclaimer: Regional turboprop scum sullying this venerated forum with an opinion....

I don't think it will happen, and Gen Lee has explained the best reasons why. Here's a better question: Did Parker throw this proposal together with the sole purpose of "acquiring" (semantics granted out, please- use whatever term you wish) Delta? I don't think that's the case either.

 

[FDJ2]

Did Parker throw this proposal together with the sole purpose of "acquiring" (semantics granted out, please- use whatever term you wish) Delta? I don't think that's the case either.

I think Parker threw this proposal out to get into DAL's books and business plan. The deal in my opinion probably won't happen. I give it a 20% probability. It adds absolutely nothing to DAL but additional debt and a mixed bag of aircraft, engines, reservation systems, baggage systems, distribution systems and competing hubs within the same airline. DAL has a plan that by all accounts is working, if you are an unsecured creditor that will be paid off in part with stock, you'll want the airline that has the greatest chance of creating growth and improved investor value.

 

[Sig]

Whatever we speculate is going on behind the curtain, everyone can agree that it shook things up.

Getting into DAL's books and business plan? Huh. That's odd- wouldn't it be illegal to use that information, or am I misunderestimating again? I thought if (>> IF = MOST LIKELY WILL <<) his grab all fell through, Parker still exerted some kind of pressure on Delta at a relatively small (whatever number that is) cost. What kind of pressure? Who knows yet- the barn door is still open. It could be a shrewd move- it could be unfettered lunacy. In the airline biz, it's hard to tell the difference

* until the model/proposal starts operating, and it's WAGs until then.

Disclaimer still stands.

 

[Marko Ramius]

Sig nailed it

Nobody really knows what Parker's goal(s) are here, and I doubt he'll be letting any of us in on them. As far getting into the books goes, isn't this basically what Northwest did to Midway, Delta to PanAm, and to some degree Southwest/AirTran/AWA did to ATA? Parker came up at NW I believe, so I'm sure he's aware of the tactic. I'm sure it is quite illegal, but the people who would need to blow the whistle on it have a tendency to keep quiet, take care of each other and talk it out over a cigar at that conquistadores(sp?) club.

 

[FDJ2]

Getting into DAL's books and business plan? Huh. That's odd- wouldn't it be illegal to use that information, or am I misunderestimating again?

US Airways wants to see Delta's books...
http://www.flightglobal.com/Articles...in+merger.html

US Airways is hopeful it can begin investigating Delta Air Lines’ books, after yesterday pitching its merger proposal in New York to the bankrupt major’s creditors committee.
The carrier is waiting for the creditors committee to decide when or if it can commence due diligence, which will be conducted by Citigroup Corporate and Investment Banking, and Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom if permitted.
On 15 November, US Airways made an offer of $8 billion, split equally in cash and stock, to merge with Delta and operate under the Atlanta carrier’s banner.
On Thursday, US Airways formally presented its plan to representatives of the Delta creditors committee as well as members of Delta’s management team. It is not clear if subsequent meetings are planned.
“We were pleased to have made a presentation to both Delta and its creditors about what we believe are the compelling and unique benefits of our plan,” says US Airways chairman and chief executive Doug Parker in a statement.
“We reviewed our offer and had a chance to engage in discussions on the many facets of this proposal. While we recognize the steps that Delta management has taken, we are confident that our proposal for a ‘New’ Delta will create more value than a standalone plan.”
Delta in a separate statement says management and the committee representatives listened to US Airways’ presentation “consistent with our obligation to review US Airways’ unsolicited proposal”.
But the carrier continues to reiterate plans for remaining a standalone company.
“While we will fulfill this obligation, we will, as we have stated, continue to progress toward filing our standalone plan by the end of the year, which would have us emerge from bankruptcy as a highly competitive, independent and financially sound airline by mid-2007,” says Delta.

 

[vtwo]

I believe that AWA /usair will buy Delta. It will solely be up to the creditors.
It's ll about the money baby, if awa offers more penny's on the dollar than delta can finance, it's allover for delta.

 

[two leg commute]

We at AWA/US have no obligation to Airbus concerning their investment in the AWA/US merger. They have been repaid in full. And the 350 order is not set in stone, there have been many rumors of extensive talks with Boeing over the past six months.

 

[FDJ2]

, if awa offers more penny's on the dollar than delta can finance, it's allover for delta.

With $8B in additional debt if the deal goes through, it will be all over for LCC also.

 

[Sig]

US Airways wants to see Delta's books...
http://www.flightglobal.com/Articles...in+merger.html

My brain hurts now. Thanks for the link.